Q&A With NatsGM.com's Ryan Sullivan Prior to Series vs. Nationals

 

For the first time since opening weekend, the Rockies will be playing a series out of the NL West. With the Washington Nationals coming to Denver for a three game series, we caught up with Ryan Sullivan, zen master of the recently defunct NatsGM.com in order to get a better picture of the next few night’s worth of bouts.

First, thanks for inviting me to do this and for welcoming a Nationals’ fan to your site.

Fantastic observation – Washington has gotten outstanding offensive production early from the bottom of the lineup, specifically veterans Jayson Werth, Matt Wieters and Ryan Zimmerman.  Preseason I stated that I would be thrilled to see Werth hit around .270 with a good OBP and between 15-20 home runs while playing acceptable defense.  The defense has been a disaster thus far, but certainly, he has been productive at the plate.  I expect him to slow down offensively (and slightly improve defensively) but I still like the .270/.345 with 17 homers prediction.

Somewhat against conventional wisdom, I think Wieters might be the guy to outperform preseason expectations – I have watched a lot of Wieters the past several years in Baltimore, and he seems refreshed and energized this season in Washington.  Perhaps it’s similar to getting a new job and wanting to impress, but I think he will have a sneaky good season at the plate in 2017.

Blake Treinen is out as closer. What happens now to the back end of a bullpen that was reportedly the runner-up for Greg Holland?

I didn’t like the decision to use Treinen as the closer from the beginning, as his below-average command is a poor fit in the closer role.  I think you will see Washington go with Shawn Kelley as the closer for the next few months while giving youngster Koda Glover the opportunity to emerge.  I also expect a Trevor Rosenthal or David Robertson trade sometime near the trade deadline to bolster the bullpen.

As of this writing, the probable starters have not been announced. But the likely trio to toe the Coors Field rubber will be Joe Ross, Stephen Strasburg, and Tanner Roark [Editors note: Stephen Strasburg is now on paternity leave, and will be replaced by Jacob Turner tonight. Joe Ross will get an extra night of rest.]. What can Rockies hitters expect in terms of approach? Do you suspect any of them are primed to struggle at altitude?

Wow, tough question as each pitcher is very different from the other.  Ross has an excellent fastball/slider combination, but his lack of a changeup makes him vulnerable against lefties.  With the Rockies having several quality LHBs and Ross in his second start of the season, this could be a bad potential matchup for Washington.

Strasburg has been fantastic thus far in 2017, as he is pitching exclusively from the stretch in an effort to streamline his mechanics – my only worry for him in this contest would be he is due for a clunker of a start, as he has been masterful in his first 3-4 outings.

Finally, Roark utilizes a 2-seam sinker and curveball to keep hitters at bay – with the thin air there is an obvious concern how this affects the quality of his pitches, but Roark is a competitor who seems to provide a quality start most times he toes the rubber.

Dusty Baker has a reputation for leaving his starting pitching in too long. Is this still the case? How would you characterize his tenure as Manager in DC?

Dusty has been leaning on his starting rotation quite a bit the first month of the season, primarily because the bullpen was a dumpster fire the first 15 games of the year.  I would have preferred him to pull the starters a bit earlier in April, especially considering the cold weather we’ve experience on the east coast so far.

As far as his tenure in Washington, he has been fantastic.  While we can nitpick some of his bullpen decisions and quibble over in-game substitutions, his personality has been a “breath of fresh air” the organization needed after the Matt Williams debacle.  He defers to his veterans in the clubhouse and lets them lead, and his ability to get along with 25 different personalities has been fun to observe.  It was a mess getting to the eventual hire, but Washington somewhat serendipitously lucked into Dusty Baker.

If the Rockies sweep, what will be the Nats’ downfall?

Most likely it will be the effects the long road trip Washington is on, as it will be their 8th, 9th, and 10th games consecutive away games, including a late night traveling from New York on Sunday Night Baseball across two time zones to Colorado.  Washington is entering this series at a slight disadvantage because of these factors.

Any other general feelings/concerns about the Nationals so far in 2017?

I/we have somewhat alluded to my concerns about the team this season – the bullpen lacks a proven closer and many of their pitchers are being used in “new” roles this season.  Also, behind the trio of Strasburg, Roark and Max Scherzer, I am greatly concerned with Ross (as mentioned above) and Gio Gonzalez – both have the potential to be average or better starters and throw 175+ innings this season, but if they struggle, there is little to zero depth behind them.  This could quickly be an issue for the team if an injury occurs.

Finally, as we also touched on, Washington is counting on production from Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman this season.  If they are productive at the plate, as they have been early, this team will score a lot of runs and provide their pitchers with plenty of support.  If they get injured or struggle, the strength of “our” lineup quickly dissipates and looks pretty mediocre after the 5 spot.  And finally, injuries – every team gets them but do the “right” guys stay healthy all year?  Washington has a good club, but their depth is the biggest weakness currently.