Predicting which Rockies will make the 2018 All-Star Game (Yes, already)

Trying to predict baseball has made fools of much wiser men than me. But we do it anyway.

Prognostications are as much a part of this glorious game as pinstripes and dirt-soaked jerseys. After all, what good is a race for a pennant without a horse to bet on?

Each passing season, the game grows in complexity on and off the field. Fans, analysts and media must keep pace.

If we are expected to predict who “won the offseason” which prospects will boom and which will bust, who will win each division, each award, the World Series, who will sign where, and what the final score of the Groundhog Appreciation Day Game will be… maybe it’s not too early to take some educated guesses about who will represent the Colorado Rockies at the 2018 All-Star Game.

In a way, this is an interesting exercise in understanding the quality and depth of the Rockies roster.

The Obvious Candidates

Let’s begin with everyone’s favorite springtime caveat. If healthy, Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon are shoe-ins for the midsummer classic based on talent and resume.

Among the best players in the game, Arenado and Blackmon should be considered perennial All-Stars until something drastic changes.

Additionally, Wade Davis, while not a slam dunk (apologies for the cross-sport metaphor) is a three-time All-Star and the Rockies just proved a season ago that they can get their closer, a former Kansas City Royal, into the game. A pretty obvious path has been set.

Similarly, while many refuse to see him as such, second baseman DJ LeMahieu is a two-time participant in the contest and is always a candidate to get in on coach voting.

The Semi-Surprises

If shortstop Trevor Story can combine his 2016 offense with his 2017 defense, he is a surefire All-Star. The talent is there, it’s just about him putting it all together.

Another two-time participant, Ian Desmond, might seem like a joke to suggest, with the narrative surrounding him following the 2017 season. Still, it’s remarkably easy to imagine a scenario where his perpetual 20/20 production before coming to Colorado is finally realized and plays up to expectations at Coors Field during a hot first half. Everyone loves a redemption story. If Desi gets going, his numbers could skyrocket him right back into the midsummer classic.

And for our third “if” of this section, we come to the starting pitching staff. No matter the nature of the conversation, it is always an uphill battle for a Rockies starting pitcher to make the All-Star Game. While there are actually a few candidates here in 2018, and we’ll get to a few more in a moment, the obvious choice is Jon Gray.

In 2016, he showed us flashes of greatness interspersed with blowup outings that muted his ultimate value. After an injury stole most of the first half of his 2017, Gray showed us the consistency he lacked the year prior, putting together one of the most impressive streaks of pitching the franchise has seen since Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010. It appears to all be coming together for Jon Gray to become a true MLB ace.

The Surprises

It wouldn’t come as a giant shock if any of the rest of the pitching staff was considered for the game. Well, okay, maybe if all the members are considered. That would, indeed, be a surprise. But any individual member? Nah.

Chad Bettis, the guy with the most experience, is probably the longest shot, but it honestly isn’t insane. A good start that is essentially the combination of the end of his 2016 season and the bits of what we saw in 2017, plus the heartwarming story, and you’ve got yourself a potential case.

Tyler Anderson, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland are all just a few small steps away from having legitimate ASG numbers. Even Jeff Hoffman can’t be entirely ruled out, though it’ll be tough if he begins the year in Triple-A.

And then there are the youngsters with the bat who have been the subject of so much debate this offseason. Outfielders Raimel Tapia and David Dahl are the longshots here but if you are in a betting pool looking for the next Cody Bellinger, Ryan McMahon is as solid a pick as you are likely to find at this point. Still, that is a rarity and must be understood.

The Guy Who Should Make The Game But Won’t

Chris Rusin. Again.

Alright, Buddy, That’s Great But Who’s Gonna Be In The Game?

Right, right. Time for definitive, inarguable, absolutely certain predictions.

The Colorado Rockies 2018 All-Stars will be… drum roll, please:

Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, and Jon Gray with Wade Davis missing out on the final ballot.

As much as I think they’ll likely deserve more than four, it’s tough to imagine a universe where the Rockies are given that kind of respect. As such, I think it will be the two stalwarts alongside the breakout youngsters finally fulfilling their potential. The whole pitching staff will be great but Gray will truly take the world by storm this season, and these players will cement the new age of Colorado Rockies baseball.

Either that or trying to predict baseball is stupid.