Postmortem: Evaluating the four best outcomes at the Winter Meetings for the Colorado Rockies

When the first batch of suitcases rolled into the lobby of the Manchester Grand Hyatt on Sunday, December 3, those adorned with luggage tags featuring the interlocking C-R had owners with a single task for the next three days: make the Colorado Rockies better. 

Four key goals set the path for what would be success at the 2022 Winter Meetings.

Accomplish all four and you restore some faith amongst the Coors Field faithful. Fail at all four and the pain of four consecutive losing seasons, not to mention the disappearance of several notable players, would bring about even more cancellations of season tickets.

Three For The Price Of One

Best Case Scenario: Sign Brandon Nimmo

Most Probable Scenario: Sign Kevin Kiermaier

Last offseason’s trade of Raimel Tapia for Randal Grichuk upgraded the defense and gave the Rockies some more power, something they needed desperately. Though Grichuk was third on the team in home runs with 19, there was one fault with the swap: Colorado became too right-handed in the lineup.

Of the regulars on the roster, only Ryan McMahon and Charlie Blackmon hit from the left side. Switch-hitter Michael Toglia spent a majority of his 120 plate appearances in the left-handed batter’s box. Sam Hilliard and Dom Nuñez combined for 241 plate appearances and now both are on different rosters. Not even the three hitters added to the 40-man roster in November – Warming Bernabel, Julio Carreras and Brenton Doyle – bat from the left side. 

The acquisition of Nolan Jones from the Cleveland Guardians did wonders for improving this lack of depth, but more needs to be done. 

Top of the list at the Winter Meetings for the Rockies was to acquire a left-handed hitting outfielder. The ability to play center field was viewed as a priority and either providing power or a high on-base percentage was also important in this multi-purpose package.

Brandon Nimmo was that perfect target until he wasn’t.

Citing a preference for a shorter length in contract so as not to block the prospect pipeline, Colorado’s attention pivoted to Cody Bellinger. He signed a one-year deal the next day with the Chicago Cubs worth a total of $17 million while Nimmo received eight years and $162 million.

The opportunity to sign Kevin Kiermaier to a multi-year deal as the left-handed hitting center fielder for the next 2-3 years eventually passed, too. He agreed to a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays to keep him in the American League East.

So now what? 

It appears there will be a waiting game for the other prospective candidates that check off some of the boxes. The ability to play center is even considered less important. Needing another left-handed bat, even after adding Jones, is still a priority.

Jackie Bradley Jr. is someone who can still play center effectively and should require no more than a one-year pact. 

Colorado can also feel good about signing Michael Conforto for right field and live with Yonathan Daza and Randal Grichuk battling for playing time in center, as an option.

Regardless of what they decide to do, it may be a choice made closer to the starting of Spring Training than the first of the new year.

Verdict: Fail (there are few options that will feel better than horizontal progress at this point)

Find The Next Germán Márquez

Best Case Scenario: Ransack the Rays’ farm system again

Most Probably Scenario: Give opportunities to cavalcade of no. 5 starters

Trades like the one that brought Márquez don’t happen as frequently as general managers like to hope. There’s belief that your scouts have identified some uncovered value and that your coaches can tune up a player even beyond initial expectations. But it doesn’t usually happen like it did with Colorado’s 2021 All-Star.

The Rockies did manage to acquire a starting pitcher while in San Diego, so pencil in Jeff Criswell as the Márquez of the offseason.

The 24-year-old was acquired from Oakland in a trade for reliever Chad Smith. The 6’4” right-hander immediately slots into Colorado’s top 20 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline.

After being taken by the Athletics in the second round (58th overall) of the 2020 MLB Draft, Criswell twirled just 34.2 innings in 2021 following the cancellation of the minor leagues the prior year. He struck out an impressive 32 batters during 22.2 frames of work in the highly competitive Arizona Fall League to provide some momentum going into the 2022 season.

Over three levels (High-A, Double-A and Triple-A) this past year, the Michigan native spun 118.1 innings to the tune of a 4.03 ERA. Criswell struck out slightly better than one batter per inning, but much of that success was before he reached Double-A.

He’s a great candidate to start with Albuquerque in April, and if history can repeat itself, he’ll make his debut with the Rockies during the second half and become a formidable starter for years to come. Until then, Colorado can continue trying to manifest an All-Star from another club’s farm system via trade.

It also should be noted that conversations are ongoing between Colorado and the other 29 teams, so even if the team left San Diego with a return smaller than anticipated, there is still time for them to improve the future of the starting rotation.

Verdict: Extended Time (Márquez was acquired over a month after the 2015 Winter Meetings in Nashville)

Many More Bulls For The Pen

Best Case Scenario: Sign LHP Zack Britton and RHP Adam Ottavino

Most Probable Scenario: Sign RHP Pierce Johnson and LHP T.J. McFarland

Besides the addition of Criswell, who could end up like countless other starting pitchers and move to the bullpen, Colorado was able to add relievers Eli Lingos and Nick Kuzia in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft.

Lingos is a 26-year-old left-hander who pitched to some success in Triple-A last season over 21.2 innings. He can start in a pinch and could become the 2023 version of Ty Blach for this club.

Kuzia will be 27 when he reports to Scottsdale and is hoping to do in 2023 what very few undrafted pitchers have ever done since the first draft in 1965: make his Major League debut.

There was also a minor league deal given to T.J. Zeuch, a right-hander with 59.2 big league innings over the last four years with Toronto and Cincinnati. The 27-year-old would love to get back to his success levels prior to 2021 and contribute to Colorado’s ‘pen.  

The top of the free agent reliever market has mostly been depleted, but many mid-tier options remain for the Rockies. 

They’ve already avoided the aggressive offseason that followed the 2017 season when they signed Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee to a combined $106 million. Now, if they decide to be aggressive with players like RHP Adam Ottavino, RHP Seth Lugo, LHP Zack Britton, LHP Taylor Rogers and LHP Matt Moore, any worst case scenario will be nowhere near what they had to endure in 2019 and 2020. 

Verdict: Fail (veterans are desperately needed to help the younger relievers on the current squad)

Beware of Bad Contract

Best Case Scenario: Don’t sign a five-year contract

Most Probably Scenario: Regret long-term contract after year-one

This scenario turned out better than any of them. The bar may have been set low, but the Rockies made a plan, stuck to it and can already see the positive impact on the future of the club.

“We like some of the young kids coming. We’re not looking to block our young guys,” GM Bill Schmidt said during the Winter Meetings in regards to signing a free agent to a long-term deal. 

That took Nimmo off the table as an option and left the remaining pool of possibilities as somewhat underwhelming. 

Even so, when those prospects reach Coors Field and Colorado begins to open their window of contention – say, 2025 or 2026, as is commonly believed – they will be able to target free agents that fit their needs for that point in time. 

It doesn’t mean 2023 is a complete lost cause. It simply means that a smaller portion of the payroll will go to players who make sense for contending in 2026 than they do in the present.

At this point, the best outlook for getting back to Rocktober and ending the current postseason drought may still be a few years away. 

Verdict: Pass (Though they already have $86 million already committed to 2026, it could have been a lot worse)