The NFL regular season is entering its final stretch and this week we’ll have some more crucial matchups in the playoff race that’s becoming especially intriguing in the NFC.

A few things have happened now that we’re at Week 13 of the NFL season; our EW metric got back on track, Vegas has figured out YPP (with another week of 10 lines within 3.5 points or less of the Vegas spreads), and I still can’t pick a winner or catch a break. After a catastrophic 0-2 Week 12 taking our record at 16-2-20 on the season, it’s really time to step it up. That’s why we’ve got four games for you and the early returns form the Thursday Night numbers where promising, so let’s hope all goes according to plan.

To be exact, last week EW went 8-5 overall against the spread, while YPP was 6-8. This week the picks seemed fairly harmonious with three consensus picks, that’s where we started and we’ve also got an EW pick of the week as well.

Let’s get to it.

Consensus picks of the week

New York Jets +3.5 versus the Kansas City Chiefs

The Jets are playing teams tough into the fourth quarter, it’s what they do when they get there that’s getting them in trouble and making them lose some spreads by the slimmest of margins.

The Chiefs on their end are falling apart as their defensive struggles are all too real and their offense has lost its bite. After a hot start, KC hasn’t adjusted to how defenses are countering them and the Jets at home should have the necessary pieces to stop the run game, create pressure, and force Alex Smith to make plays.

The Jets offense has actually been half decent and with the Chiefs ‘D’ ranking in the bottom five against both the run and pass, this should be a fairly evenly matched game. After a tough initial two-week stretch New York has been competitive and with the Chiefs having lost five of their last six seeing them favored on the road just doesn’t make sense.

The Jets being at home should make a big difference where they’re 3-3 and those three losses have been incredibly unlucky and close.

Against the struggling Chiefs, we’re betting their luck turns around.

New Orleans Saints -4.5 versus the Carolina Panthers

We’re going back in on the Saints after a tough loss to the Rams a week ago without two of their best cornerbacks in Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley. Both are still questionable to come back but against the Panthers, it won’t matter nearly as much as it did with the Rams’ much more stacked receiver group.

Carolina is on a four-game winning streak so they shouldn’t be undervalued and they’re definitely a tricky team to bet on this year as they’ve been up-and-down all season, surprising right when they seem to be figured out.

New Orleans is at home and it’s worth remembering that last time these two teams faced each other in Charlotte the Saints won 34-13. The Panthers win streak has helped them up their stock significantly as there aren’t huge margins here with both metrics liking New Orleans by just over a touchdown.

The added bonus here is that Cam Newton nursing a thumb injury didn’t look like himself a week ago. Against a much-improved Saints ‘D’ trying to keep up with Drew Brees and the top-ranked offense in the NFL (per YPP) Cam’s task will be that much harder. Give us the Saints over a touchdown to make this a sweep against the Panthers on the season.

Seattle Seahawks +5.5 versus the Philadelphia Eagles

The Seahawks are always a pesky team to pick when they’re favored as they’ll often get overvalued and find themselves playing in more close games than you’d expect. It’s why when they’re getting over the customary field goal they can be a tricky bet, but as underdogs, they’re the exact team you want to put money on.

First off, they’re at home where they haven’t been unbeatable anymore as they’ve lost their last two but they’re still 3-2 on the year. Both those losses though came by a combined six points which is exactly why you gotta love this bet.

The Eagles are obviously playing fantastically this season, they’re winning in the trenches on both sides of the ball have had extraordinary quarterback play and they can get after opposing passers. That’s a recipe for success and with the Hawks injuries in their secondary added to their struggles on the offensive line, Philly’s the better team without a shadow of a doubt – EW has the Eagles projected to win 13 games while Seattle is at 10. But at home with their defensive front and Russel Wilson, this does feel like a potential upset or at least a really tough game for the Eagles who have won by an average margin of victory of 27.5 in their last four games as they’ve seemingly hit another gear.

This will be Philadelphia’s first big challenge in a while this season and given some of the inexperience they have on the team it’ll be interesting to see how they respond.

Until proven otherwise the Seahawks as home-dogs are just too appealing to pass up, even if it’s against the mighty Eagles.

EW pick of the week

Los Angeles Rams -7 at the Arizona Cardinals

Like the Saints game, this is another divisional rematch from earlier in the season where the Rams won 33-0 in Week 7. Meaning that even if Blain Gabbert plays great like he did a week ago we still like our chances.

The Rams have been hot all year and both metrics have been fans of their work as EW has them projected to win 12 games and they’re the ninth best team per YPP. More impressive the Rams defense has picked things up significantly in the last seven games where LA’s won five – in that stretch Wade Phillips’ unit has allowed an average of 11 points per game.

That doesn’t bode well for the Cards who even with Adrian Peterson and this version of Gabbert don’t exactly induce fear in the Rams who are backed by their high powered offense that’s averaging 30 points per game – second best in the NFL.

The Cardinals have a good defense that’s making strides as of late and they have a good coaching staff that will make adjustments. Thing is when they’ve lost they’ve lost big most of the time, especially against the league’s best offenses. Arizona has been one of the worst teams against the spread as a result going 3-7-1 on the season, while the Rams are a cushy 7-4.

We like our odds even if the Cards lost us a pick just a week ago.

BSN ATS’ YPP & EW Week 13 lines

Teams	Current Spread	Expected Wins 2017	Advantage	Home Field	EW Suggested Spread	EW Differential	YPP Suggested Spread	YPP Differential
WSH	-2	6
@DAL		7	2	3	-5	7	-1.5	3.5
DEN	-1.5	5	3		Even		-2	0.5
@MIA		3.5		3	Even	1.5
MIN		11	3		Even	3
@ATL	-3	9.5		3	Even		-4	1
NE	-8.5	11.5	10		-6.5
@BUF		6.5		3.5		2	-0.5	9
SF		4.5						1
@CHI	-3	5	1	3	-4	1	-2
TB		6.5
@GB	-2	7	1	3.5	-4.5	2.5	-4.5	2.5
HOU		8	2			5.5		0.5
@TEN	-6.5	7		3	-1		-6
KC	-3.5	9.5	5		-2
@NYJ		7		3		1.5	-2	5.5
IND		4
@JAX	-9.5	12	16	3	-19	9.5	-12	2.5
DET		9
@BAL	-3	10	2	3.5	-5.5	2.5	-3	0
CLE		3.5						6.5
@LAC	-14	10	13	3	-16	2	-7.5
NYG		4				0.5		2
@OAK	-8.5	6.5	5	3	-8		-6.5
CAR		9.5
@NO	-4.5	11.5	4	3.5	-7.5	3	-8	3.5
LAR	-7	12	14		-11	4
@AZ		5		3			-0.5	7.5
PHI	-5.5	13	6		-2.5
@SEA		10		3.5		3	-2	7.5
PIT	-5	10.5	6		-3		-3
@CIN		7.5		3		2		2