Patience with Mikko Rantanen could pay off down the road

With a tenuous hold on a playoff wildcard spot the Avalanche offense has sputtered and stalled. In the nine games since the All Star Break the Avalanche have scored three goals just three times (Averaging 2.11 goals per game), reached 30 shots just three times, and have been outshot by a margin of 310 to 235. On an undeniably top heavy team, there’s been little goal support from the Avs’ bottom six. In those nine games Matt Duchene (1G 3A -7), Nathan MacKinnon (3G 2A -6), Gabriel Landeskog (3G 1A +2) and Tyson Barrie (0G 4A -9) haven’t been good enough to win games on their own, while depth players like John Mitchell (0G 2 A in last 18 games), Jack Skille (0 points in 12 games), Cody McLeod (0 points in 17 games) and Andreas Martinsen (0 points in 17 games) have failed to pick up the slack.

Now, as Avalanche head coach Patrick Roy scrambles his lines and moves Matt Duchene back to center in search of an offensive resurgence, tension over AHL rookie Mikko Rantanen is palpable. When will the Avalanche turn to the AHL’s top teenager for help?

Maybe they shouldn’t.

Between his team leading 17 goals and 41 points in just 33 games, an AHL All Star debut, and an impressive gold medal winning World Junior Championship tournament in Finland, it’s easy to see Rantanen’s immediate appeal. The 6’4″ winger has the size and skill to be a scorer at the NHL level and considering his all-out domination of the American Hockey League, there’s good reason to believe that Rantanen is ready to produce on hockey’s biggest stage.

Tempting fruit no doubt for an Avalanche team flanking their top center Nathan MacKinnon with a pair of wingers (Alex Tanguay and Jack Skille) who have scored two goals and eight points in their combined 36 games since the start of 2016. But while Mikko Rantanen looks ready for the Colorado Avalanche, the Avalanche aren’t ready for him. Not quite yet.

It’s no news to Avalanche fans that Colorado is still an exceptionally poor possession team, particularly in terms of shot suppression. Sadly, they aren’t trending upwards yet:

Recent trend in shot rates. Little arrows show direction of trend. pic.twitter.com/2tA4BCFVzG

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) February 16, 2016

Unblocked shot rates. pic.twitter.com/zhIuyUiXLs

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) February 12, 2016

I won’t beat that drum extensively here (it’s already well trod ground throughout the hockey world) but the fact that Colorado ranks dead last in the NHL in CF% with a measly 43.1% is alarming to say the least. Avalanche fans have seen this show before, when the team defied the numbers and made the playoffs in 2013 on the back of Semyon Varlamov before being chased out of the postseason in the first round. 

Even if the Avs make a surprise playoff appearance, they’ll likely face a league juggernaut in Chicago or Los Angeles, a pair of teams who’ve won each of the last four Stanley Cups. In other words, no one should consider this team a threat to win the Stanley Cup this summer and for all the good Mikko Rantanen might do for the Avalanche right now, he wont singlehandedly cure their possession woes or lead them to the promised land.

The question the Avalanche must ask then: is it worth burning the first, cheap year of Mikko Rantanen’s Entry Level Contract on 20 games played and a probable first round exit? Rantanen, who had 0 points in his first 6 NHL games this season, sits 3 games away from his ELC limit. If the young winger plays a 10th NHL game this season, the first year of his three year ELC will disappear and Rantanen will be eligible for a new contract in 2018. If, however, the Avalanche wait out the year and keep Rantanen under the 9-game limit then his ELC will slide, expiring in 2019.

A quick look around the NHL reveals that the “bridge deal” for young players is quickly disappearing in the cap world. Star youngsters like Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Aleksander Barkov have all bypassed their bridge deals, jumping straight into big money deals ranging from $5-6 million annually. Nathan MacKinnon has also expressed the desire to ink a long term deal immediately, and may push the trend even further with cap hit over $6 million. If Mikko Rantanen is the player the Avalanche believe him to be, it’s not hard to imagine him jumping straight out of his ELC and into big money.

The Avs aren’t contenders yet and with over $7.5 million in cap space, their financial concerns are limited, so why all the fuss over Rantanen’s second contract before his first even begins? Because in order to plan for the future, they need look no further than the defending champion Chicago Blackhawks to find the competitive advantage that managing ELCs can provide. The Blackhawks, who’ve spent the better part of six years at or near the NHL’s salary cap ceiling, have sustained their Stanley Cup calibre roster by replacing talent they can no longer afford, with young, cheap talent on entry level deals.

Whether it’s Nick Leddy, Brandon Saad, Teuvo Teravainen, or Artemi Panarin, the Blackhawks current dynasty has always supported their expensive veteran talent with cheap young players. Just this year the Blackhawks have employed five roster regulars still on their entry level deals in order to stay below the NHLs salary cap while paying for more premium talent than any other team in the league.

The Avalanche aren’t a Stanley Cup contender yet, but two, or three years down the road they very well could be. When that time comes, an extra few million dollars preserved on Mikko Rantanen’s ELC could be the difference in acquiring the type of playoff rental that pushes the Avalanche over the top. 

Mikko Rantanen is clearly knocking on the door of the NHL, but if the Avalanche hope to build a championship roster, they may be better off waiting to open it.