Once again, the Denver Nuggets are forced to pick between offense and defense

1. Michael Malone has been given an ultimatum throughout this entire playoff run: play your best defensive lineups and risk going cold on the offensive end of the court or play your best offensive lineups and risk giving up easy buckets on the defensive end of the court. These issues compound once you stop viewing basketball in terms of possession, with one play on the defensive end of the court leading to a separate and independently quantifiable play on the offensive end of the court, and vice versa.

In game 4, Paul Millsap picked up two fouls in the opening two minutes of each half and it placed Malone in the unenviable decision of choosing between offense and defense. He chose defense (surprise, surprise) and suddenly Jerami Grant, Torrey Craig, and Nikola Jokic were tasked with defending and rebounding against LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Dwight Howard while trying to score with an ice-cold Gary Harris and Craig spacing the floor on the other end.

It didn’t go well.

Jamal Murray’s tough shot-making probably disguised just how ugly the Nuggets’ offense was throughout this game, especially in this specific lineup, which the Nuggets played more than any other lineup in game 4. Craig finished with a team-worst -17 in 19:30.

2. Here is another example of how bad offense leads to bad defense.

3. The alternative to playing Gary Harris and Torrey Craig is to rely on more minutes for Michael Porter Jr. But that too comes with a tradeoff, just in the other direction. Porter is capable of knocking down shots, changing the way that the Lakers defend the Nuggets, and helping to grab rebounds against L.A.’s tall lineups, but he’s also a huge target on the other side of the floor.

LeBron James has made a point to place Porter into the pick and roll (PnR) almost every possession that he is on the court. For the last few games, the Nuggets have had Porter jumping out at these screens to prevent the switch and then recovering to his man on the roll or pop.

But Porter is mistake prone even in that simplified coverage. In games 1-3, LeBron would attack those possessions by splitting Porter and getting into the paint off of the dribble, or by having Porter’s man slip the ball screen into the open pocket created by how far out Porter was jumping to hedge the ball screen.

At times, Porter would just misread the screen altogether in a way that created wide open looks for the Lakers.

In the first half of game 4, the Lakers used the ball screen to draw Porter out into open space and then release his man for open threes.

4. In the second half of game 4, the Nuggets had Porter just switch out onto LeBron.

So heading into game 5, the Nuggets have to make a choice. Option one is to continue to start and play Harris while brining Craig in off of the bench and hope that they knock down enough shots to make up for the Lakers ignoring them on the offensive end.  Make enough, and the Lakers will be forced to play in the half court, a spot where the Nuggets have had success on the defensive end.

But if those guys aren’t able to make the admittedly high number of shots that it will take to keep the Lakers honest, then the Lakers will get enough opportunities to attack in transition  and on the offensive glass to blow the game open.

If you rely on Porter Jr. to play more minutes at the expense of Harris and Craig, then you should be able to score on the Lakers fairly comfortably in the half court. But there isn’t a place to hide Porter in the half court on the defensive end and the Lakers might be able to score at the same pace or better.

Personally, I’d still rather take the Porter risk than the Harris risk and would open game 5 with Porter on the court at shooting guard. Porter is a strong rebounder. The Nuggets have grabbed 52.8% of all available rebounds when he has been on the court in this series, compared to just 37.3% when he is off of the court. That might provide the edge needed now that the Lakers are starting a huge lineup that has dominated the boards.

It also might be the move that sends the Nuggets home. Down 3-1, it’s time to take a few risks.