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The Denver Nuggets are coming off one of their worst losses of the year, a 112-92 drubbing at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks who improved to a Western Conference-worst 6-18 on the season.
The Nuggets were trending up with a chance to split a six-game road trip prior to Monday night, but things unraveled early for Denver against the Mavericks as the Nuggets fell behind early 27-19 after the first quarter and never led once Monday night.
At 9-16, Denver’s playoff hopes look slim, but an eight seed is not out of the question. The Nuggets would have to win roughly 60 percent of their games to get close to the potential playoff threshold, something that seems unrealistic, but only find themselves three games in the loss column out of the playoffs if the season ended today.
With three winnable games coming at home over the next seven days, the Nuggets are likely entering a stretch that will define the course of their season. Win anything other than two out of three and it’s hard to envision Denver making a push for the eighth seed.
In the Nuggets’ past six games, Nikola Jokic has recorded five double-doubles, is coming off a career-high 27-point performance against Dallas, and was somehow a +2 plus-minus in 26 minutes in Denver’s 20-point loss. On the season, the Nuggets are now 7.5 points per 100 possessions better on offense with Jokic on the floor and 2.4 points per 100 possessions better on defense, according to NBA.com.
Jokic has not only rebounded from his struggles at the beginning of the year but is currently the Nuggets’ best player.
He’s rediscovered his aggressiveness on offense, his playmaking ability from the post, and is getting back to the player who was such a joy to watch on his way to a third-place finish in last year’s Rookie of the Year voting during a historical 80 games where the Serbian posted some of the highest rated advanced statistics in league history.
It’s time for Denver to come home, start Jokic, play him around 30 minutes per game, a total he’s somehow only eclipsed twice this season, with consistent rotations, and figure out how to put him in the best positions to succeed. As a result, Jusuf Nurkic could move to the bench, still play close to 20 minutes a night and have the offense run through him in the post as he punishes second-unit centers, something he’s already shown he can do this season.
There have been many mistakes and pitfalls already made this year in Denver, but none stands out more than how the Nuggets have misused Jokic. After getting miscast as a four next to Nurkic in the starting lineup at the onset of this season, his confidence was shot and his performance on the court suffered, so much so that he asked to be moved to the bench, a selfless move that not many NBA players would go for.
Now, Jokic is playing inconsistent minutes as the backup center; 19 in a win over the Suns back on November 16, 27 two days later in a loss to the Raptors. Then, 18 in a home win over the Bulls, followed by 23, 29, 31, then 24 minutes respectively over his next five games.
Against Dallas Monday night, Jokic was on the court for two stretches. The first, a 10-minute stint from the middle of the first to the seven-minute mark of the second quarter. And the second, a stretch that would make even Russell Westbrook keel over, from the 4:48 mark in the third through the rest of the game – 17 minutes straight in total.
Getting Jokic consistent starter minutes should be a priority. Players like to know when they’ll play and around how much they’ll play night in and night out. It will set the Nuggets up to play better basketball for the rest of this season, even if that doesn’t mean playoffs, and lay a foundation for 2017-18 if Denver decides to look towards the lottery rather than the top-eight in the West.
No matter which way Denver’s season goes, establishing Jokic at center, with the first unit should be priority No. 1. To his credit, Malone has given Jokic more consistent time, 21, 28, 26, and then 26 minutes since the big man recently returned from a wrist injury that sidelined him for four games.
The next step is starting Jokic and working towards a rotation that doesn’t require the big man to play a 17-minute stretch in the second half to close out a game.
The Nuggets’ loss to Dallas should serve as a turning point for Denver. Coming off a win in Orlando, the chance to split a six-game road trip this early in the season would have been a heck of an accomplishment for such a young team that’s had its fair share of inconsistent play through the first quarter of the year.
However, the Nuggets no-showed.
Forget about any trade rumors that may surface over the next month, the Nuggets don’t have full control over the market.
What they do have 100 percent control over is their own roster and a player in Jokic that they need to enable and most importantly put in a position to succeed over the next couple of months and throughout the remainder of this season.
