Heading into the NBA’s restart on June 30, the DNVR Nuggets crew is looking back on the Denver Nuggets’ season, where each player left off, a target stat that every player should shoot for and one half-court heave or bold prediction for everyone on the Nuggets’ roster.

Where Nikola Jokic left off

The story of Nikola Jokic’s 2019-20 season is a story of extreme weight loss.

As a teenager, Jokic was a self proclaimed “fat point guard,” before being discovered by Misko Raznatovic and whipped into shape by the coaching staff of his first professional team, Mega Vizura.  By the time he entered the NBA back in 2015, Jokic had slimmed down into a regular sized 7-foot body. By the summer of 2016, following a summer playing for the Serbian national team, Jokic was at the thinnest weight of his adult life.

Since then, he had been adding weight throughout every season, trading speed and agility for power and the ability to bang with the league’s power post players. The added weight didn’t seem to affect Jokic’s conditioning. In last year’s playoffs, Jokic played 65 of a possible 68 minutes in a quadruple overtime thriller.

By by the start of training camp last fall, Jokic had ballooned to what was certainly the largest size since entering the league. His weight became 0ne of the main topics of discussion surrounding him and fodder for his more ardent critics. Those criticisms were aided by an underwhelming start to the season. Through 18 games, Jokic was averaging just over 15 points per game and shooting 45% from the field, both figures well below his season averages since his rookie year. A pair of game-winning shots and a 13-5 record helped contain some of the concern but it was clear to anyone watching that Jokic was either coasting, out of shape, or just simply in a funk.

Things changed in early December, perhaps spurred on by a loss to Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers in which Jokic was held to just 13 points on 4 of 12 shooting. It was around that time that Jokic began working out after practices and games and began a period of rapid weight loss.  By mid January, Jokic looked thinner and more toned than he had at any point in his career.

The month of February was arguably the most efficient and productive month of Jokic’s five-year career. Over 10 games he average 25.5 points per game on 70% true shooting and recorded eight triple doubles. By the end of the season, his per game averages were in line with last season’s when he earned first team all-NBA honors.

Target Stat

1.5 3FG per game.

In addition to being one of the most exciting games of the season, Denver’s 19-point 4th quarter comeback win over the Philadelphia 76ers in November might’ve also been the most illuminating.  For three quarters, Joel Embiid sunk off of Jokic, daring him to take the open shot while walling off the paint and preventing Denver’s PnR drives and cuts. Jokic entered the 4th quarter shooting 0-6 from three and the Nuggets offense was stuck with just 65 points.

Jokic drained two three-pointers to open the 4th quarter as the Nuggets began to storm back. Embiid began to step out further on Jokic’s handoffs and spot ups and the paint began to open up as the Nuggets rallied back, outscoring the 76ers 35-13 en route to a win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8j5taFFF9s

Jokic averaged 1.5 3FGs just once in his career, back in 2017-18. He made nearly that many from December to February, his best stretch of the season and he exceeded that mark in last year’s playoffs. He also averaged over 1.5 3FG made during last year’s playoff run. For the Nuggets to compete at the highest level this season, he’ll have to take and make those frequently enough to force defenses to defend him out on the perimeter.

Half Court Heave

Jokic will average a triple-double in the first round of the NBA playoffs.

For starters, Jokic only averages 3.1 assists shy of a triple double right now, despite starting off the season so slowly. In last year’s playoffs, he came within 1.5 assists per game of a triple double average. So he’s already close.

But factor in that the Nuggets should be better equipped to knock down shots alongside him, especially if Michael Porter Jr. gets consistent minutes. Then you can also factor in that the playoff courts will be void of fans, noise, and distractions behind the backboard. Shooters should have a leg up on catch and shoot shots. With a bit more shot-making, Jokic will put up some pretty silly playoff numbers.