The logjam that was the Denver Nuggets’ power forward rotation during the 2017-18 season was dense enough to dam up the Platte River. There were six players on last year’s squad whose best position was the four: Paul Millsap, Trey Lyles, Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur, Juancho Hernangomez and Tyler Lydon. That number swelled to seven if you counted Wilson Chandler, who spent most of his time at small forward but said publicly he preferred power forward.
This season, thanks to a trade with the Brooklyn Nets, the power forward rotation is not quite as crowded. By sending Faried, Arthur and a pair of picks east, the Nuggets were able to shed enough salary to avoid the luxury tax and address their roster imbalance. But make no mistake: Even after swinging that deal, there’s still plenty of congestion with five players on Denver’s 14-man roster whose best position is the four.
Millsap is the first player in the power forward pecking order. The four-time All-Star, who will earn $29.2 million this year, is back after a wrist injury cost him 44 games his first season in a Nuggets uniform. He returned to the floor in late February after a three-month absence and showed flashes of brilliance. He’s the Nuggets’ best defender by a significant margin when healthy. And when Millsap and Nikola Jokic shared the floor, Denver hammered opponents, outscoring them by 8.0 points per 100 possessions.
Millsap should eat up most of the minutes at power forward this year. In the last five seasons, he’s averaged anywhere between 30 and 34 minutes per game. If you split the difference and assume Millsap averages 32 minutes per game in 2018-19, that only leaves 16 minutes a game for the four players contending for backup power forward minutes: Lyles, Hernangomez, Lydon and Jarred Vanderbilt.
Lyles has the inside track to get those backup minutes. The 22-year-old Canadian was instrumental in keeping Denver afloat when Millsap went down with a wrist injury. In 44 games without Millsap, Lyles averaged 13.0 points on 49.8 percent shooting from the field and 40.1 percent shooting from three, 6.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists. The Nuggets went 24-20 in that stretch. Lyles proved he could be a rotation player on a good team. But even if he begins the season second on the depth chart at power forward, there’s no guarantee he gets double-digit minutes every night.
Nuggets coach Michael Malone was fond of playing his two centers, Jokic and Mason Plumlee, together last season. It was not the most aesthetically pleasing two-man pairing, but it was effective: Denver outscored opponents by 4.4 points per 100 possessions when Jokic and Plumlee shared the floor. Going to the Jokic-Plumlee pairing when Millsap returned meant Lyles got squeezed. In Denver’s final 22 games, he logged 5 minutes or less seven times and racked up four DNP-CDs.
“Personally, it was up and down from not playing, to playing a lot, to playing a little bit, to not playing at all,” Lyles said at his exit interview. “But that’s how it goes. This summer I’m looking forward to getting work done and making sure that I’m playing all the time.”
If Lyles is fighting to get consistent minutes again in 2018-19, that doesn’t leave much room for players Denver has taken in the last three drafts to see the floor at all — at least at the four.
Hernangomez, the 15th overall selection in 2016, impressed as a rookie but only appeared in 25 games his second season due to a bout of mononucleosis and the glut of players already in the front court. He could fight for minutes at backup small forward. At 6-foot-9, he’s a knockdown three-point shooter and an excellent offensive rebounder, but he struggles to stay in front of opponents on the defensive end. Those skills suggest he should be playing power forward; it probably wasn’t a coincidence that his best game as a pro, a 27-point, 10-rebound performance in a win over the Warriors in February 2017, came when he made a spot start at the four. There just don’t appear to be many minutes available for him at that position, though.
In 2017, the Nuggets traded back and took Lydon in the first round. Lydon got on the floor for a grand total of 2 minutes as a rookie. He spent most of his time in the G League before a meniscus tear in January forced him to watch the rest of the season from the sidelines. Lydon has since recovered, and he played in Summer League, but the odds of him earning rotation minutes this season are long.
Finally, there’s Vanderbilt. Denver took him in the second round of last month’s draft with the 41st selection. A former five-star recruit who grew up in Houston, Vanderbilt didn’t play much in his lone season at Kentucky because of multiple left foot injuries. When he did, however, he produced, averaging an absurd 7.9 rebounds in 17.0 minutes per game. The Nuggets already gave Vanderbilt a three-year deal worth $4 million, which suggests the team wants him in their plans longterm. But as is the case with Lydon, it’s difficult to imagine Vanderbilt busting into the rotation this year.
2018-19 is a pivotal season for the Nuggets, who are trying to snap a five-season playoff drought, and for most members of their power forward rotation. Millsap, who could be back on the open market next summer if Denver declines its team option, will try to reestablish himself as one of the NBA’s best at his position. Lyles, who’s eligible for an extension right now and could become a restricted free agent in less than a year’s time, is trying to earn consistent minutes and a more lucrative deal. After lost seasons, Lydon and Hernangomez are just trying to prove they belong.
Not all of those players will get the reps they want. The Nuggets’ front office did well to better balance their roster by sending Faried and Arthur to Brooklyn. Even so, Malone will have a hard time figuring out how to divvy up the playing time at power forward.
