1. Two games into this series and it is clear that the key battleground will be the Portland Trail Blazers’ pick-and-roll (PnR). In game one, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets tried defending ball screens by having Jokic step right around the three-point line, a few feet lower than the level of the screen. As a result, Damian Lillard and the rest of Portland’s guards were able to pick between attacking Jokic with a full head of steam or skipping into a pull-up three-pointer.

They scored on a healthy mixture of both but really hurt the Nuggets by getting into the paint, forcing the Nuggets to rotate, and passing in rhythm against a scrambled defense. The result was 29 assists, 19 three-pointers, and just six turnovers, all of which would’ve ranked among their best marks of the season.

In game two, the Nuggets brought Jokic much further up the court against ball screens . He would step out to the level of the screen or slightly below, stepping several feet beyond the three-point line. From there, the guard defending the ball handler could fight over the screen and recover before the ball handler could get into the paint. This strategy leaves the Nuggets vulnerable to the play-making of the rolling big man but reduces the threat of Lillard or the other Portland ball-handlers getting into the paint and scrambling the defense.

The result was that the Blazers tallied just 15 assists and 21 turnovers.

2. Portland’s 16 three-pointers was also a step down from game one but even those were largely unassisted hero shots from Lillard who tallied 9 of the 16 total three-pointers made. On many of those threes, Lillard either scored in isolation or shot from several feet behind the three-point line. That he made 9 of 16 attempts is impressive but even for Steph Curry that success rate would be unsustainable over time. Those shots also don’t create secondary scoring options or great offensive rebound chances.

3. Paul Millsap didn’t defend a lot of these PnRs but he got a bit too aggressive on this one. Allowing the guard to turn the corner in PnR is death but it is especially damning when the screen is set that high on the court. It is the basketball equivalent to a running back breaking into the open field.

4. I suspect that the Blazers will look to attack Michael Porter Jr. more out of the PnR in game 3. They ran at him several times in the 2nd half of game two and had some success with it. Porter is reading defensive assignments a lot better than he was at this time last year but he is still more mistake prone than anyone else on Denver’s roster. The Nuggets elect to switch these screens more often than not, placing Porter in isolation against Lillard but allowing the rest of Denver’s defense to remain set.

5. CJ McCollum will also likely take turns attacking him in PnR. In addition to getting good shots out of these possessions, the Blazers also get the added benefit of making Porter work hard on the defensive end.

6. The other big adjustment that the Nuggets made during this game was to place Aaron Gordon on Lillard, an assignment Gordon requested at halftime of game two. Below you can see what a great job Gordon did keeping Lillard in front of him, recovering off of screens, and contesting side steps and step backs.

7. In game three, the Blazers will likely try to take Lillard off ball a bit more and run him off of screens. When he does play on ball, look for the Blazers to run double stagger screens up top, making it difficult for Gordon to fight through without having to switch.

These types of plays will wear Gordon down but they also leave him vulnerable to the most obnoxious types of fouls, the type of which Lillard is very good at drawing.

8. The Nuggets may decide to switch all ball screens that don’t involve Jokic. If not, they will continue to need Porter to use his size and long strides to keep Lillard from getting to the outside and recovering back to his man quickly once Gordon recovers.

9. Shaq Harrison made a huge impact on this game, checking in to guard Lillard at the end of the 2nd quarter when Lillard was on fire from three. He may have earned more minutes. The Nuggets will be concerned about him hurting the offense but with the Blazers choosing not to double in the post, it might not make as much of a difference who they have spacing the floor around Jokic.

10. Nurkic is the key to everything Portland does defensively. Without him, the Blazers are toast. When he is on the court, getting him switched off of Jokic is a huge win that tilts the odds of scoring in Denver’s favor quite a bit. In the clip below, Monte Morris does a nice job of drawing Nurkic away from Jokic to force the switch and then attacking him off of the dribble in isolation.

11. Even getting Covington switched onto Porter is a minor win since it forces the Blazers to play both of their tall players out on the perimeter. Here is a nice set that the Nuggets used to generate that switch in the first quarter.

12. I wouldn’t mind seeing more Jokic-Rivers PnRs. Denver isn’t struggling to score so it might not be a big issue but the Nuggets could use Rivers’ ability to reject the screen and get into the paint.

13. Denver’s bench unit did a great job of remaining patient against Portland’s. Carmelo, Kanter, Lillard, McCollum are awfully thin on defense but teams can get over-eager when they go up against bad defenses. Remaining patient and under control generates A+ looks like the one below.

14. This is just a random and relatively unimportant note but JaMychal Green is very good at recognizing when to flash and deliver a high-low pass. As a fellow big man, I appreciate when players recognize these windows.