After an injury-riddled 82-game season, we’ve come full circle. The Denver Nuggets showed us enough down the stretch to reignite the excitement that took hold in the offseason. But we haven’t seen much of the team at full strength.

One could argue we’re back where we started. Hoping this truly is the most capable roster of the Jokić era and daydreaming about their capabilities.

In an ideal world, this team would have used the regular season to unearth their best lineup combinations and diversify their already elite offense. They could have ironed out the wrinkles and built chemistry as they integrated new faces with the established core.

But that’s not reality for the Nuggets, their fans, and their analysts, who would all have preferred to gather more data across a fruitful campaign.

As the team gears up for its most daunting playoff run yet, let’s sort through what we have learned.

Nikola Jokić

Jokić suffered the worst injury of his career and went through a relative funk upon returning. Despite this, he put together a historic season, becoming the first player to lead the league in rebounds and assists per game. He’s the only player to lead the league in both categories at any point in his career, on a per-game basis.

He also averaged 27.7 points per game.

Those who watch Jokić carefully have learned how to look past the numbers — they are always great, but there are levels to Big Honey’s dominance. When he’s truly locked in, he dictates almost every aspect of the game, and shreds virtually every coverage. He was missing that last layer of greatness for a brief stretch upon his return from injury. He found it again at the final turn.

Jokić dominated during Denver’s 12-game win streak, at one point posting more points, rebounds, and assists than any player over any 10-game span in NBA history.

The Nuggets enter the playoffs with, still, the best player alive.

Jamal Murray

Murray promised to turn in his best October yet. He followed suit in November. Kept it up in December. Then led the Nuggets through the darkness of January.

After making his first All-Star team, Murray acknowledged his pride in the accomplishment. But he quickly turned his attention to a bigger aspiration.

“I want to be All-NBA,” Murray said. “I feel like that’s the bigger award. I feel like that’s something that you do all year. And your play shows all year and into the playoffs and all that. I just got to stay hungry.”

Once again, Murray walked the walk. Denver’s All-Star guard finished the season with career highs in points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game, field goal percentage, and three-point percentage. He lit it up beyond the arc, combining volume, efficiency, and degree of difficulty in a way that no other shooter matched.

The Nuggets enter the playoffs with Murray looking better than ever, and they still have the best duo in basketball.

Aaron Gordon

Gordon only played 36 games this season due to recurring hamstring strains. He’s suffered three strains (on both sides) in under nine months, raising questions about his durability at this stage of his career. Mr. Nugget is essential to both half-court operations, and simply put, they don’t have a chance without him.

The Nuggets went 29-7 with Gordon in the lineup this season, and 27-19 in the remaining games. With Gordon on the floor, they look like themselves, particularly in the clutch, where they’ve struggled mightily in his absence. We’ve described the Jokić-Murray pick-and-roll as a two-man game before, but that overlooks AG’s role in maintaining healthy spacing.

Gordon’s health is paramount.

Depth

From the emergence of Spencer Jones to the resurgence of Bruce Brown, the ascension of Peyton Watson, and the revelation of Tim Hardaway Jr., the Nuggets look deeper than ever before, as promised.

Hardaway Jr., in particular, emerged as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate by pouring in 224 three-pointers despite coming off the bench. That’s good for 10th in the entire NBA. He averaged 13.5 points per game and shot over 40% from 3 for the first time in his career.

Exactly how deep they are and how it all fits together in a playoff rotation remain to be seen. But with Brown looking like he did in 2023, and Tim Hardaway Jr. breathing fire off the bench, the Nuggets are returning to battle with a bigger and badder army.

Elite Offense, Porous Defense

Despite the brutal injury luck, the Nuggets finished the season with the best offensive rating in basketball. It’s a testament to their depth and also what’s possible when Jokić and Murray are at the peak of their powers.

Like in 2023, the Nuggets’ offense is potent enough to keep them in any matchup. Most of their struggles are on the other side of the ball.

The Nuggets finished with a 116.0 defensive rating, ranking 21st in the league. For almost any other squad, that is a damning statistic. For a Jokić-led team that was hurt all year, it’s, admittedly, concerning, but it doesn’t preclude them from contention.

We’ve seen them flip switches on that end before.

Like in 2023, this team is looking to identify the right moment to pounce, the right 5-12 minute window to play their best defense of the night. If they play their game on the other side, that could be enough. But it’s an anxiety-inducing strategy, and their path back to the mountaintop is far steeper than the title run.

The Nuggets are headed for a first-round matchup with their old nemesis — the Minnesota Timberwolves. They’re also on the same side of the bracket as the upstart San Antonio Spurs. And that paves a golden path for the Oklahoma City Thunder to return to the Western Conference Finals.

Is Denver ready to run the gauntlet? The DNVR Staff went around the table to share their perspectives.

– Brendan Vogt

Will the Nuggets beat the Timberwolves in the first round?

Vogt: The Nuggets are capable of beating this team in five games. Given how this season’s gone, and how most of Denver’s series go, I’ll predict they win in six.

The Wolves have shown a lower floor than Denver this season, proving inconsistent despite their defensive ceiling and bona fide superstar, Anthony Edwards. We all know what they’re capable of, but they’ve struggled to sustain their highest level of basketball, and they’re the 6 seed for a reason, despite all of their talent.

Moreover, this matchup has changed over the years. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is in Atlanta. Karl Anthony-Towns, a sneakily formidable opponent against Jokić and a key piece of Minnesota’s old defensive strategy, is in New York. Regardless of how one rates KAT and Julius Randle, there’s no denying the swap improves the matchup for Denver.

The Nuggets went 3-1 in the season series, and while that’s not reliable data for making predictions, the eye test showed the mental edge has dissipated. The Wolves still present some matchup problems, and they’re still a more physical team than the Nuggets, but whatever the old dynamic was, it transcended tactical advantage. The Nuggets seemed to lose their minds and their sense of how to play together when they saw those jerseys. Those days are in the past.

Mares:

Wind: Yes, and if this Nuggets team is what we think they are, then this series shouldn’t be close. The Nuggets and Timberwolves have been heading in opposite directions over the last month. Denver has won 12 in a row. Minnesota has had vibes that to me feel similar to the end of the Nuggets’ season last year, before they fired Michael Malone and Calvin Booth. Peyton Watson is hurt, and Aaron Gordon is banged up, but Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels — Minnesota’s 1st and 3rd most important players — are really banged up. The Nuggets should outplay and outclass the Timberwolves in this series.

There’s also a chance Nikola Jokic has one of his best playoff series ever. He knows the Timberwolves better than they know themselves. He knows their play calls. He knows their tendencies. He knows every adjustment they’ll throw his way defensively. Denver and Minnesota play four times every season. They’ve played twice in the playoffs recently. There’s so much familiarity here, and that’s where Jokic thrives. We could be set up for an absolute masterclass, and to be honest it would be disappointing if Jokic isn’t absolutely dominant from the start of this series to the end.

Who will be Denver’s X Factor in this playoff run?

Vogt: Peyton Watson

If Watson can get healthy and anywhere close to the level he was playing at in January, the Nuggets will be a significantly better team. He won’t be a top option, and he has to reacclimate to coming off the bench, but Watson emerged as a shot creator and playmaker at the start of the new year.

So many role players are finishers — guys left open and tasked with converting the great looks that star players manufacture. Watson has a chance to be a guy who creates opportunities, and that could prove particularly beneficial against the Oklahoma City Thunder should Denver make it that far.

In the meantime, they’ll need his defense when he’s available.

Mares: Spencer Jones

I think Christian Braun is the right answer here but I’ll go outside of the box and anticipate Peyton Watson does not play and Spencer Jones does, taking on all of the defensive responsibilities we typically reserve for Pwat. Can he make an impact defensively against Anthony Edwards? Will he guard Julius Randle and Naz Reid? And will Denver’s non-Jokic lineups hold up thanks in large part to the defensive energy he brings. It’s a lot to ask of the former two-way player coming back from injury but he will be in the spotlight a lot. And like Braun, he will likely get wide open looks at key moments throughout the season?

Wind: Christian Braun

Can CB take and make big 3-pointers with confidence? It’s one of the biggest questions of this series. There’s a chance Minnesota puts Rudy Gobert on Braun to start Game 1, and whoever’s one him will make CB beat their defense from beyond the arc. There’s going to be pressure on Braun — especially with how down his season has been — to beat the Wolves’ defense from 3 and in other ways. His defense will also be counted on in the Anthony Edwards matchup, given Peyton Watson’s uncertain status. It’s a huge series for him, and if Braun plays well, it’s tough to see the Nuggets struggling too much on either end of the floor in this matchup.

What’s your biggest concern heading into the postseason?

Vogt: Health

The Nuggets are deeper and more formidable than ever. But that means nothing if their injury luck follows them into the postseason. Neither Peyton Watson nor Spencer Jones are cleared yet for Game One. And then there’s Gordon. Will his legs hold up through a grueling postseason run?

The Nuggets want to wield their depth as a weapon and not to plug holes in the intended rotation. The healthy Nuggets can make a run. The injured Nuggets won’t.

Mares: Early momentum

I think this is a series where games one and two will carry extra importance. The Nuggets have the better overall record and head to head record this season and they are riding a lot of momentum into the playoffs. The Wolves are also battling back from injury and enter the playoffs without much of a rhythm. But the Wolves hold a slight mental advantage over Denver because of the 2024 series. I think if Denver can win early in this series, everything tilts heavily in their favor. If the Wolves can land an early blow to the Nuggets, I think they will steal a huge mental advantage headed back to Target Center.

Wind: The bench minutes

The Nuggets should be very comfortable with Jokic and the starters’ minutes in this series. They dominate everyone and should control the series in the time Jokic, Murray, and Gordon spend on the floor. While the Nuggets bench is much improved this season, the biggest question marks for me again come in the non-Jokic minutes in this matchup. Minnesota could have an advantage with Bones Hyland, Ayo Dosunmu, Naz Reid, and maybe Rudy Gobert or Anthony Edwards on the floor against Denver’s bench. Can the Nuggets score, and if not, get back and defend in transition against a second unit for Minnesota that can put points up on the board?

How far will the Nuggets go?

Vogt: With this path, the expectation should be, at least, making the conference finals. This team should beat the Wolves in round one. They should beat the Spurs in round two. If they can’t do that, then more serious conversations are in order. I can’t say the same about the Thunder. The Nuggets have a shot if they can get through the first two rounds quickly while staying healthy. They can do enough in the first two rounds to inspire confidence and convince me they’re ready to take the crown. But if it takes them 14 games to get there, it’s hard to see them winning. They can’t waste any games against Minnesota.

Mares: I’m inclined to say that it is more fun to take things one game at a time. But my confidence in the upside of this team is as high as it has been at any point over the last 5 months. The Peyton Watson injury is a curveball in their overall chances at a championship run but I think the Nuggets still have the opportunity to do something special. I’m going to say I feel pretty good about their chances of making their way to the Western Conference Finals and if they do so without playing a game 7, I like their chances to go all the way.

Wind: They have all the ingredients to make a championship run. This is the deepest team of the Jokic era, and that should give you a lot of confidence about where this team is at. But more importantly, Nikola Jokic and this team seem like they have the right mindset right now. They seem relatively rested, Jokic seems like he’s in the right headspace, Jamal Murray has leveled up this season, and this team seems at ease riding a 12-game winning streak. Their collective mindset gives me a lot of confidence in their ceiling and just how far they can go.