DENVER — The Nuggets know what’s coming on Tuesday.
Oh nothing of importance, just a showdown in Portland with Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and the Portland Trailblazers, in a game that could very well decide the eighth seed in the Western Conference.
It will be arguably the most important Nuggets game in four years.
But first, the Pelicans.
Regular season game No. 73 | Denver Nuggets (35-37) vs New Orleans Pelicans (30-42)
Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado | 6:00 PM MST | TV: Altitude
Looking Towards the Lottery
Even after acquiring DeMarcus Cousins at February’s trade deadline, New Orleans has fallen out of contention for the eighth seed in a race that’s now down to Denver and Portland.
The Pelicans are five games behind the Nuggets, still mathematically in the hunt but not realistically a threat with how the schedules line up down the stretch and how well both Portland and Denver have played as of late. After a loss in Houston, Friday night, it’s only a matter of time before the Pelicans turn their attention away from the lottery and towards the lottery.
That turn could become more evident Sunday, when the Pelicans face the Nuggets with Cousins (right ankle sprain) as a game-time decision.
If Cousins sits, the Pelicans would likely turn to Dante Cunningham, who’s averaged 6.3 points in 25.6 minutes per game this season and has been a solid contributor off the bench, or seldom-used Donatas Montejuans, who’s only logged 13 minutes over New Orleans’ last seven games.
More Jokic touches means more Nuggets wins
It’s not rocket science, more touches for Nikola Jokic translates to more Nuggets wins.
Based on the eye test, it’s no surprise that when then Nuggets put a priority on getting Jokic involved on the offensive end, their chances of winning increase exponentially.
Credit: Joel Rush, BSN Denver
Since Dec. 15, the date where Jokic was inserted as Denver’s starting center, the 22-year-old is averaging 77.6 touches per game in Nuggets wins, but just 70.5 in Nuggets losses.
Here’s more from Rush, who dove into the numbers more on Saturday.
Jokic had 99 touches in his big outing against the Pacers. That is a whole heck of a lot. For a frame of reference, according to NBA.com, the NBA centers averaging the most touches per game are DeMarcus Cousins (79.6), Marc Gasol (74.9), and Anthony Davis (74.7). Jokic is ranked seventh for the entire season with 65.7 touches per game, and third since he took the helm as Denver’s starting center on December 15th at 75.3 per contest.
In fact, his 99 touches in Indiana are in a three-way tie for the third most he’s had in a game all season. This high number, along with what at least passes the eye test as evidence that Denver’s offense thrives best when the action is going through Jokic, led me to speculate that there might be a positive correlation between Nikola’s touches per game and winning outcomes for the Nuggets.
As it turns out, player tracking data from NBA.com demonstrates that this is indeed the case – at least in the “Jokic Era” since Dec. 15. In this time frame, in games in which tracking data is available, Jokic has averaged 77.6 touches in Nuggets wins, while in losses, that number drops to 70.5.
Keeping Jokic involved throughout the entire game and into the fourth quarter will key Denver’s success down the stretch. Entering Sunday, the Nuggets sit one game up on Portland for the eighth seed. The Trail Blazers visit the Lakers, who also have their eyes on the lottery, Sunday night.
