Denzel Valentine, SG, Michigan State
What immediately stands out about Denzel Valentine, aside from him having the best name in the draft, are the superb numbers he put up in his senior year at Michigan State. The 6-foot-6 guard was a production monster across the board for the Spartans, averaging 19.2 points, 7.8 assists, and 7.5 rebounds per game last season. Concerns about his athleticism and knee cartilage have caused him to slip on many draft boards. At BSN Denver, we’re holding our ground with him at No. 10.
Strengths
Valentine emerged as the unquestioned leader of Tom Izzo’s Spartans after being named to the All-Big 10 team his junior year. His MSU pedigree is strong, but the question remains if he will end up being more Draymond Green than Adreian Payne. The combination of his deadeye shooting (44.4 percent from three) and IQ as a playmaker may write his ticket to NBA relevance. Like Green, he can affect the game in many ways with the ball in his hands, as he did against Kansas last year with a ridiculous 29-12-12 triple-double.
Valentine is an efficient shooter with enviable range. Pure shooting by itself elevates a player’s usefulness now more than ever, but Valentine’s knack for setting up teammates is a rare and special skill for a young 2-guard.
Offensively, Valentine should be a contributor immediately for whichever team drafts him. His height and length make him a force on the glass, where he crashes admirably for rebounds against bigger players. As a 22-year-old with four years of college experience, his learning curve at the next level will be minimal, at least on offense.
Weaknesses
Yet, there are valid reasons why such a productive player from a college powerhouse is not being talked about as a lock for the lottery. The other shoe drops for Valentine on the defensive end.
He’s one of the worst perimeter defenders in this draft class, slow afoot and disengaged at times. Quicker guards will give him tons of trouble at the NBA level due to his inability to play one-on-one defense without fouling and his tendency to lose his man off-ball. Opposing teams will likely target him in pick-and-rolls, where neither fighting through the screens nor switching them, will be a particularly good option for Valentine.
Offensively, his lack of athleticism will present more problems at the NBA level than it did in college, where he got by using his smarts and size. NBA defenders will make him work for everything and he will likely struggle to create his own shot or make it all the way to the rim consistently.
The most recent knock against him, and it’s a potentially big one, is his left knee. Valentine had arthroscopic surgery to clean up the meniscus in his left knee in December and recent MRI results have teams worried. While the exact concerns haven’t been specified and Valentine insists he feels great, the fear of drafting damaged goods will have teams shying away on draft night. If Valentine is red flagged by doctors because of his knee, he could drop off teams draft boards altogether.
Potential fit in Denver – Valentine would give the Nuggets the shooting boost they need and he has the potential to give them more rebounding and assists than presumptive starting 2-guard Gary Harris. But Harris’ defense is light years ahead of Valentine’s and will only get better as he plays with Olympic competition this summer. Valentine would be a decent scorer off the bench for the Nuggets right away, so long as his defensive woes didn’t land him in Michael Malone’s doghouse. It’s tantalizing to imagine him sharing the floor with Nikola Jokic and Emmanuel Mudiay, three gifted passers moving the ball and finding the open man.
Current projection – Most prognosticators currently predict Valentine to go in the mid-20s in this draft. This slide in Valentine’s draft stock is somewhat hard to believe and if his knee checks out, he’d be a great pick at No. 14 or 19 overall. It’s just rare to get such a complete and proven offensive player outside of the lottery. There will always be a role for a big 2-guard that can shoot and pass, especially if he can commit himself to improving defensively.
