Well, hello old friend. Oh how I’ve missed you Trade Rumor Season, it seems like we were just together back on June 25th during the NBA draft, but you’re already back.
The NBA trade deadline is set for February 18th at 1:00 p.m. MST. Over the next 13 days you can expect to hear a lot of trade buzz, and a lot of that buzz will be centered around the 19-31 Denver Nuggets. Will the team be buyers or sellers? Who are the targets other teams will be trying to pry away from General Manager Tim Connelly?
Lucky for you, we’ll have a giant trade deadline podcast available in the next 24 hours to satiate all your trade deadline needs. For now, let’s examine a few trade rumors involving the Nuggets.
Will the Nuggets trade J.J. Hickson?
One of the first orders of business for newly extended Nuggets GM Tim Connelly: Trying to find a new home via trade for big man J.J Hickson
— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) January 20, 2016
Nuggets, I’m told, actively trying to find workable deal that would send Hickson elsewhere in advance of the NBA’s Feb. 18 trade deadline
— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) January 20, 2016
Hickson is entering the final year of his three-year pact with the team, he’s making roughly $5.6 million this season. Moving Hickson would appear to be a no-brainer for a team that has plenty of cheaper options playing ahead of him in Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Joffrey Lauvergne and Darrell Arthur (and of course Kenneth Faried, but he’s making a touch more money).
But dealing Hickson may not be as easy as it seems as he’s a net negative player. Net negative? When Hickson is on the floor the team averages 97.6 points per 100 possessions on offense, but on defense that number balloons in the wrong direction. The team allows, on average, 103.5 points per 100 possession on defense when he’s on the floor. So, that gives him a net rating of -5.9.
During his eight year NBA career, Hickson has been traded and he has been waived. When he was a free agent in 2013, the Blazers were not in a rush to re-sign him. In fact, their GM said at the time that they needed to find a new center that was bigger and more defensive minded. They signed Robin Lopez and the Nuggets inked Hickson, a player Brian Shaw desired.
Hickson’s value:
If a team is looking for help at the power forward or center spot, they may have some interest in Hickson, but Denver shouldn’t expect much in return. What the Nuggets should aim for if they are trading Hickson is either a young player that is a bit of a reclamation project, another player on an expiring deal or a future second round pick.
Fans should not want the Nuggets to compound their issue with a player like Hickson by adding another one — meaning a guy with a high-ish salary compared to his production or minutes played. Denver should not trade for a guy who will also be buried on the bench that has years left on his contract when they could just let Hickson’s contract expire at the end of the season — creating more salary cap room.
It should be noted that Hickson has been a complete professional this season. He works his tail off in practice, can be seen getting ample amounts of conditioning in, since he’s not playing much, and is often one of the last guys off the floor after practice. He’s also a favorite in the locker room and has close ties with Will Barton. Ask any Denver Nugget who is one of the funniest guys on the team or who is the best teammate and more often than not Hickson’s name will be brought up.
Will the Nuggets trade Joffrey Lauvergne?
The Denver Nuggets are seeking a late first-round draft pick in exchange for center Joffrey Lauvergne, league sources tell Sheridan Hoops.
— Michael Scotto (@MikeAScotto) February 5, 2016
This rumor from Michael Scotto came out this morning and was just a bit out of left field, but not totally. Nuggets head coach Michael Malone has been very complimentary of Lauvergne in the last couple of weeks as Joffrey has seen his spot in the rotation practically disappear and guys like me have been asking what his role will turn into.
Lauvergne went from starting at the beginning of the season to now playing behind both Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic at the center spot. He’s seen some spot duty at power forward and center, due to injuries to Nurkic and Darrell Arthur, but it’s clear he’s the third string guy at both positions. Joffrey is a bit of a “tweener” as he’s not the quickest PF around and he’s doesn’t possess superior height to be an elite C either. He can stretch the floor out to the 3-point line, is a willing passer and can play in the post, but he has been struggling on the defensive end.
On the season, Lauvergne, like Hickson, is also a net negative player. On offense the team scores 95.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, but allows 110.3 points per 100 possession on the defensive end of the floor. That give Joffrey a net rating of -14.7 and that is not good.
Lauvergne’s value:
King Joffrey was selected 55th overall in the second-round of the 2013 NBA draft. If the rumor is true that Denver is seeking a late first-round pick for Joffrey, that would be very good value for the third string center. It seems unlikely that teams would offer up that kind of pick for a guy who was selected just five spots ahead of Mr. Irrelevant (the last and 60th overall pick in the NBA draft), but at just 24 years-old his upside could be promising to the right GM.
Who can you trust when it comes to trade rumors?
We get this question a lot as social media is a feeding ground for trade rumors. The Nuggets are extremely tight lipped when it comes to leaking trade rumors. Typically, the Nuggets don’t have rumors floating around and all the sudden we get news that a deal involving the Nuggets is done. It happens fast.
If you see anything from the following people, keep your eyes peeled:
1.) Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports — if it comes from him, it is not a rumor and the deal is usually just about done as Woj is putting the final touches on a story that will break seconds/minutes later.
2.) Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post — if Dempsey is Tweeting or writing about something, pay attention. He doesn’t put misinformation out there to waste people’s time, it he says it — it’s worth noting.
3.) Marc Stein of ESPN — his information is a bit of a mixed bag. He had the Timofey Mozgov trade to the Cleveland Cavaliers and the draft day deal between the Bulls and the Nuggets involving Doug McDermott and Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris. Those rumors legitimized him as a guy who gets solid information involving the Nuggets. He’ll post more rumors than the guys above, and they don’t always come true, but Stein has solid information.
4.) Shams Charania of Yahoo! Sports — he usually has more information on free agent signings versus trades, but all bets are off now that he’s with Yahoo. If you see something from Shams, it’s good info.
5.) Marc Spears of Yahoo! Sports — like the rest of his Yahoo crew, he’s trustworthy, but will post more rumors than his colleagues. Spears is always solid.
There are also a wide range of team beat reporters that I trust, but also a slew that I do not — same with national guys. It’s a bit harder to sort through. We’ll do our best to sort through it all for you.
Happy NBA trade deadline season.
