Mudiay has been frustrating for much of the season, namely in terms of his scoring. He has been an unbelievable bad finisher from all areas of the court, shooting especially poorly at the rim. But I would like to say that one of the most advanced analytics on the internet say that he has been a very efficient passer even when you account for the billions of turnovers. It’s called playmaking TS%. Not all assists are created equal. Setting up a guy for an open layup is good. Unless the pass was to Dion Waiters, the pass is guaranteed to lead to two points. Setting a guy up for an open midrange jumper is just okay. Yeah, you found an open man, but a midrange jumper isn’t a very efficient shot. If he is really open and he’s a good shooter, he’ll make it 50% of the time, but setting a guy up for a two point shot that will go in half the time just isn’t as good as setting up a guy for a two point shot that will go in 100% of the time.

Mudiay’s passes tend to be of the latter variety, as much of those of any point guard in the NBA. The numbers say, actually, scream, that Denver shot attempts off of passes from Mudiay go in at an incredible rate. Take a look:
http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/true-usage/

He has a playmaking effective field goal percentage of 68%, 3rd among point guards in the NBA. That means that the Nuggets have an effective field goal percentage of 68% on shots that come from Mudiay passes. What may be even more amazing is that stat relies a lot on teammate skill. Guys like Draymond Green (still great despite this caveat) will always have a pretty good playmaking eFG% because he gets to pass to guys who play for the Warriors and are good shooters anyway.

And I know what you’re thinking: does this really cancel out the turnovers? Yes. The same site has a stat called playmaking TS%, which the same as playmaking eFG% except it includes turnovers and passes that lead to free throw attempts. Mudiay ranks second on the Nuggets at 59.9% behind only Lauvergne (who has a pretty small sample size. Moreover, these stats suggest big men in general, not just Lauvergne, usually set up very open looks with their passes, they just don’t do it very often). It’s also 4th in the NBA among point guards, behind Matthew Dellavedova, Patty Mills, and Chris Paul.

Another question: is this real? As in, is it possible for Gallinari to shoot better on catch and shoot 3s when the pass is from Mudiay compared to when the pass is from, say, Nelson? Are there guys who do this regularly? There are going to be a lot of small sample size flukes if you look at this year’s data, and if you look at big men, just because they pass less. So the question is, do players only have the roughly the same playmaking eFG% from one year to the next? The evidence suggests at least a little. I’m only going to look at point guards just because big men don’t have a large enough sample size yet this season, since they pass less. Point guards who really tend to set up open looks include Paul, Jrue Holliday, Kyle Lowry, Patty Mills, Russell Westbrook, Ish Smith, Dellavedova and Steph Curry. Point guards who disproportionately tend to set up poor looks include Michael Carter-Williams, Jameer Nelson, George Hill, Tony Parker, and Ty Lawson. I’m not saying any of those guys are bad passers. The truth is, unassisted shots are less efficient than assisted shots. It’s easier to score after being set up by a teammate than in isolation, so shots off passes always are usually more efficient than shots that aren’t from a pass. Let’s say that shooting off a pass improves your field goal percentage by 9 percent (that number is made up, but I’m basically certain it’s between 6 and 12). A pass from a guy like Westbrook actually improves your percentage by 12%, whereas a pass from Lawson only improves your percentage by 6%. A pass from Lawson still makes you better, it’s just not as extreme.

The bottom line is that the stats suggest Mudiay is by far the highest risk, highest reward passer in the NBA. Every attempt at setting up a teammate on his part leads to either a turnover or an incredibly easy and open shot for a teammate. There is no in between. Thus far, his ability to do the latter has more than cancelled out his tendency to do the former. He is so extreme that the latter is probably a little bit fluky, but still, Mudiay’s successful passes lead to open looks as much or more than those of any player in the NBA. His shooting is still a disaster of epic proportions, but still, he has done a fine job of manning the point.