Emmanuel Mudiay was a consensus top-10 pick when the Nuggets selected him seventh overall in 2015. His rare combination of size and power for a 19-year-old vaulted him up team’s big boards as he settled in as the unanimous top point guard in the draft. Mudiay had skeptics, but he was a wanted commodity on draft night. Current ESPN draft analyst Mike Schmitz said at the time that Mudiay was “certain” to become a lockdown defender under Larry Brown at SMU (the point guard spent that season in China instead), and it was “only a matter of time” until he ironed out the kinks in his jump shot.
The Knicks were pegged by many mock drafts to select Mudiay fourth overall. ESPN’s chief draft analyst at the time Chad Ford ranked Mudiay as his fifth-best prospect in the draft. The Nuggets were thrilled when they landed what they thought was their franchise cornerstone seventh.
Mudiay’s jumper — along with other parts of his game — never developed in Denver. As the NBA grew into its pace-and-space identity, Mudiay and every other non-shooter either adapted or suffered the consequences. Mudiay shot just 32 percent from three and 67 percent from the line his rookie year. His jumper didn’t improve during his sophomore season either as NBA teams on average attempted roughly three more three-pointers per game than they did the year before. Mudiay converted a healthy 37 percent of his threes through 42 games with Denver last season before the Nuggets traded him to the Knicks at the deadline. He went 9-46 (19.6 percent) from three with New York over the final couple few months of the regular season.
After the Nuggets picked Mudiay in 2015, they’ve prioritized shooting in the draft. And with good reason. Last season, teams attempted roughly 6 1/2 more threes per game than they did in 2014-15. There was mounting evidence that the league was trending towards a heavier reliance on three-point shooting years ago, and that trajectory hasn’t changed one bit.
The Nuggets’ draft history speaks for itself. Denver hasn’t drafted a player with a shaky jump shot since 2015, and the last seven players the Nuggets have selected were all pegged as plus shooters entering the draft. In 2016, the Nuggets drafted Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez in the first round. On average, those three shot 39 percent from distance at Kentucky, Florida State and for Estudiantes in Spain respectively in the season before they were drafted. In the second round Denver drafted Petr Cornelie — a mobile five man from France who was coming off a season where he hit 39 percent of his three-point attempts.
In 2017, Denver used three draft picks on Tyler Lydon, Vlatko Cancar and Monte Morris. All three prospects shot at least 38 percent from three (Lydon and Cancar were over 40 percent) the prior season. Lydon, Cancar and Morris were also all coming off years where they shot better than 80 percent from the line.
On average, the Nuggets’ last seven draft picks shot 39 percent on threes and 78 percent from the line in the season prior to the draft.
Of course, shooting isn’t the only skill set the Nuggets have targeted over the past couple drafts. Those seven players all have positional versatility and project to be two-way players with relatively high basketball IQs. They fit a similar profile that Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly is zeroing in on in this year’s draft Thursday (5 p.m., ESPN). Currently, Denver holds the 14th, 43rd and 53rd selections.
“We’re trying to find a guy we can continue to build with, a guy who fits our culture and a guy who can be another long-term piece,” Connelly said when discussing Denver’s draft plans. “… We need to continue to improve on the defensive end. Positional versatility is something that is appealing, not just with our team but with all teams right now. As you see our young core start to take shape, it’s easier to pick guys who most accent them and complement their games.
“Versatility on both ends, two-way players. I think coach (Michael) Malone has done a great job creating a culture of guys who get in the gym on their own and work. Our young guys are reflective of who we want to be, so we want to add another guy with a similar mindset and approach.”
The Nuggets again will target a prospect that plays both ends of the floor, that’s a given — as will most every team selecting in the first round. But if Denver sticks to its organizational credo of premier shooting at every position, here are the names that fit the profile.
Seven prospects in ESPN’s Top 100 that are projected to go in the first-round shot better or equal to 39 percent from three and 78 percent from the line last season. Those prospects are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Mikal Bridges, Aaron Holiday, Jaren Jackson Jr, Elie Okobo and Jerome Robinson. 16 prospects who could potentially go in the second round, including Jalen Brunson, Tony Carr, Jevon Carter, Devonte’ Graham, Devon Hall, Shake Milton, Malik Newman, Landry Shamet and Khyri Thomas, fit those parameters as well.
Expand the qualifiers to those who shot at least 37 percent from three and 75 percent from the line last season, and prospects like Kevin Huerter and Josh Okogie, two projected mid-first round picks, and Jacob Evans, a likely late-first or early second-round selection, are included.
There are plus shooters that don’t fit this grouping too. Michigan State’s Miles Bridges shot 36 percent from distance last season after hitting 39 percent of his threes during his freshman season. Projected lottery pick Lonnie Walker converted 35 percent of his threes but only 74 percent of his free throws at Miami last year. Oklahoma’s Trae Young shot 36 percent from three. Luka Doncic, who will be the first perimeter-oriented player to walk across the stage and shake commissioner Adam Silver’s hand, shot under 30 percent from three-point range in the ACB League this past season although shooting is considered one of his strengths.
The Nuggets don’t necessarily need more shooting this time around. Denver’s starting five of Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic are all above-average shooters. Key contributors off the bench from a year ago, Will Barton, Trey Lyles, Devin Harris, Torrey Craig and Malik Beasley, can all keep defenses honest from the three-point arc. Mason Plumlee was the only non-shooter in the Nuggets’ rotation last season. After finishing the year as a bottom-seven defense for the third-straight season under Malone, Denver could prioritize defense over shooting this time around.
Accurate or not, organizations and front offices develop stereotypes based on their draft records. The Bucks seem to prioritize length. The 76ers for many years weren’t afraid to draft for upside even when those players had injury concerns. The Hornets are more often than not attracted to players that attended one of college basketball’s blue blood programs. The Nuggets like shooting.
Can Denver sacrifice some shooting for defense or versatility wherever the Nuggets end up selecting in the first round? Or, after watching the Warriors, Cavs, Rockets and Celtics on average shoot a whopping 33 three-pointers per game in the playoffs after attempting 29 per game in the regular season, can Denver focus more on other skill sets?
On draft night the Nuggets have to answer that question, along with countless others.
