With two days left in the 2018-19 regular season, the Nuggets’ first-round playoff opponent remains undecided.
What is set in stone is that Denver will be a top-3 seed in the West. The Nuggets will host either the Spurs, Thunder, Clippers or Jazz in the first round.
Here’s a quick preview of each potential first-round opponent and one matchup in each series that could determine a winner. (Western Conference playoff scenarios, per the league.)
Spurs: 47-34 (31-9 at home, 16-25 on the road)
Net Rating (12th), Offensive Rating (6th), Defensive Rating (21st)
Season Series: 2-2 (12/26 in San Antonio: Spurs 111 Nuggets 103) (12/28 in Denver: Nuggets 102 Spurs 99) (3/4 in San Antonio: Spurs 104 Nuggets 103) (4/3 in Denver: Nuggets 113 Spurs 85)
Key Matchup: Nikola Jokic vs. the Spurs’ frontcourt
In the Nuggets and Spurs first matchup of the season, San Antonio sent double and triple teams Jokic’s way, determined not to let Denver’s All-Star center score. The Spurs’ game plan worked. Jokic finished with just four points on 1-5 shooting and did rack up 10 assists, but Jamal Murray and Malik Beasley shot a combined 5-20 from three-point range. Gary Harris and Will Barton didn’t play that night, which surely influenced the Spurs’ decision to let Denver’s injury-riddled rotation beat them from beyond the arc. San Antonio didn’t go back to that strategy in either of the three later matchups against a healthier Denver lineup, but you wonder how Gregg Popovich would play Jokic in a playoff series. Jokic had his way with LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl, averaging 21 points on 76% shooting across Denver’s last three meetings with San Antonio. The Nuggets won all three of those games. If Jokic has his way, Denver should win this series.
What else could decide the series? The Spurs are just 16-25 on the road this season, and San Antonio will likely enter the playoffs as the second- or third-worst playoff team away from home this season. But the Nuggets haven’t found any success in San Antonio over the last few years and have lost their last 13 games in the Alamo City, a streak which dates back to the 2011-12 season. You’re always worried about what Popovich might come up with in a playoff series too. The Spurs have played both a 2-3 and 3-2 zone against Denver this season, which the Nuggets have handled well for the most part, but the Popovich factor always makes a playoff matchup with the Spurs more daunting.
Bottom Line: The Nuggets are a much more talented team than the Spurs. They’re deeper, more explosive ,and at times San Antonio has struggled to defend this season. Denver should be able to score against San Antonio if the two teams meet in the first round. Will they be able to put the ball in the hoop on the road? That’s a big question mark.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6
Thunder: 47-33 (26-14 at home, 21-19 on the road)
Net Rating (10th), Offensive Rating (16th), Defensive Rating (4th)
Season Series: 4-0 (11/24 in Oklahoma City: Nuggets 105 Thunder 98), (12/14 in Denver: Nuggets 109 Thunder 98), (2/26 in Denver: Nuggets 121 Thunder 112), (3/29 in Oklahoma City: Nuggets 115 Thunder 105)
Key Matchup: Paul George vs. Will Barton/Torrey Craig
George is the type of player at 6-foot-9 with an A+ offensive skill-set that typically kills the Nuggets. But Denver has been able to keep the All-Star forward in check this season by throwing a number of bodies at him across every matchup and has limited George to just 41% shooting from the field this season. George can raise his game in the playoffs, but you wonder if he’s still capable of reaching that MVP level of play with a left shoulder that’s bothered him for the last couple of months. If he can’t, the Thunder don’t have the offensive firepower around George to hang with Denver.
What else could decide the series: The Nuggets have also been able to limit Russell Westbrook this season, also holding him to 41% shooting from the field in four games. Denver is comfortable with either Craig or Gary Harris checking the Thunder point guard. Jokic has had his way with Steven Adams throughout much of his career and this season. The Nuggets’ All-Star center is averaging 25 points per game versus the Thunder. Denver has also been able to score on Oklahoma City too. The Thunder have the fourth-ranked defense in the league, but the Nuggets have eclipsed the 100-point mark in every game against Oklahoma City this year. Jamal Murray has also found success versus Westbrook this season, averaging 22 points against the Thunder. If you’re the Nuggets, you’re not worried about Billy Donovan coming out with too creative of a game plan either.
Bottom Line: The Thunder boast plenty of star power in George and Westbrook, but Oklahoma City has been trending in the wrong direction over the last month. Still, the Thunder are stingy defensively and could look better in a playoff environment. After beating the Thunder four times in the regular season, two of which came in Oklahoma City, the Nuggets would enter this series with plenty of confidence.
Prediction: Nuggets in 7
Clippers: 47-34 (25-15 at home, 22-19 on the road)
Net Rating (13th), Offensive Rating (9th), Defensive Rating (19th)
Season Series: 3-1 (10/17 in Los Angeles: Nuggets 107 Clippers 98), (12/22 in Los Angeles: Clippers 132 Nuggets 111), (1/10 in Denver: Nuggets 121 Clippers 100), (2/24 in Denver: Nuggets 123 Clippers 96)
Key Matchup: Patrick Beverley vs. Jamal Murray
Beverley is one of those opposing point guard that you don’t want to match up against as a young lead ball handler in the playoffs for the first time. The Clippers’ guard is a pest, somebody who would likely hound Murray full-court if Denver and L.A. met in the first round and try his best to make life hell for the 22-year-old. Murray’s full of confidence but has struggled with his handle at times this season, and an opening round test against a defender of Beverley’s caliber would be a daunting one. Murray had his ups and downs against the Clippers this season, averaging 16 points on 44.6% shooting from the field but just 33.0% from three.
What else could decide the series: This series could come down to how well the Nuggets defend Williams, the likely Sixth Man of the Year award winner who’s averaging 20 points per game this season. Harris would likely draw the assignment most often and is a good matchup for the like-sized guard. Former Nuggets forward Danilo Gallinari is also enjoying a career-year in L.A., averaging career-bests in points (19.9) and field goal percentage (46.3%). Gallinari is also shooting 43.4% from three-point range, the highest he’s shot from distance since his rookie year. Barton, Craig and Paul Millsap would all spend time guarding the Clippers’ swingman.
Bottom Line: The Clippers play together and are a tough group to beat when they’re rolling. They’ll enter the playoffs with zero expectations, a lot of doubters to prove wrong and would surely look at the upstart Nuggets who will enter the postseason without a ton of playoff experience as vulnerable, even if the Clippers don’t have too many postseason reps of their own to fall back on. However, it’s difficult imagining L.A.’s defense holding Denver in check for too many prolonged stretches in a first-round matchup and the Nuggets’ talent should win out.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6
Jazz: 49-31 (28-12 at home, 21-19 on the road)
Net Rating (4th), Offensive Rating (15th), Defensive Rating (2nd)
Season Series: 1-2 (11/3 in Denver: Nuggets 103 Jazz 88), (1/23 in Utah: Jaz 114 Nuggets), (2/28 in Utah: Jazz 111 Nuggets 104)
Key Matchup: Nikola Jokic vs. Rudy Gobert
The Jazz would be the Nuggets’ most-difficult first-round opponent. Utah can lock you down defensively and boast the league’s second-best defense this season. Since the All-Star break, the Jazz have the league’s second-best Net Rating behind only Houston. Denver felt Utah’s wrath in the two team’s last matchup where Gobert held Jokic to 16 points on 5-15 shooting. Gobert could be headed towards his second-straight Defensive Player of the Year award and would be the toughest matchup for Jokic in a potential first-round playoff series.
What else could decide the series: Utah is a tough place to play with a rowdy crowd, and Vivint Smart Home Arena is one of the league’s loudest venues. The Jazz are also playoff tested and brought back most of their key rotation players from last season’s first-round playoff series win over the Thunder, which Utah won in six. The Nuggets would want to target Gobert early and often and try to get Utah’s big man into foul trouble.
Bottom Line: You could see this series going either way. The Jazz are well coached and have playoff experience on their roster, but the Nuggets are more talented. If Utah and Denver meet, expect a back-and-forth seven games that could potentially tilt in favor of whoever wins the Jokic and Gobert matchup.
Prediction: Nuggets in 7
