Nuggets-Timberwolves: Series predictions, X-factors, key storylines

Well, this feels about right.

Ever since Tim Connelly left the Nuggets last summer to become the Timberwolves’ president of basketball operations, Denver and Minnesota felt destined to meet in a playoff series. That series begins tonight. Game 1 is scheduled to tip at 8:30 pm on TNT.

There’s plenty of familiarity between these two sides besides Connelly. Calvin Booth, who’s now running the Nuggets, worked in the Timberwolves’ front office for years before arriving in Denver. Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch was an assistant in Denver under Michael Malone during the 2016-17 season. Also on Malone’s staff in the early years of the Nikola Jokic era was Micah Nori. He’s now an assistant for Finch in Minnesota.

Let’s keep going.

Ryan Saunders, who’s in his first year as an assistant on Malone’s coaching staff in Denver, was the Timberwolves’ head coach from 2019-2021. He’s of course the son of Minnesota legend and former Timberwolves coach Flip Saunders. David Adelman, another current Malone assistant, got his first NBA assistant coaching gig in 2011 — for the Timberwolves.

There’s also the past history between these teams and rosters.

Game 82 in 2018 between the Nuggets and Timberwolves was a seminal moment in the Jokic era. Two of Minnesota’s starters — Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley — played key roles in the Nuggets’ 2020 first-round series against the Jazz when Denver came back to win after trailing 3-1. Austin Rivers, now on the Timberwolves, was on the Nuggets last season. Matt Ryan, who’s on a two-way contract with Minnesota, came up through the Nuggets’ G-League system. Alright, I’m reaching with that one.

But you get it. These two teams are very familiar with one another. Playing four times per season certainly helps.

“We know exactly what they want to do. They know what we want to do,” Bruce Brown said. “I think we’re ready.”

Key storylines that will shape the series

How will the Timberwolves guard Nikola Jokic?

It’s the biggest question in this matchup and somewhat of an unknown considering the Timberwolves haven’t played the Nuggets with their twin-towers look this season. Karl-Anthony Towns missed all four Nuggets games with a calf injury and it’s another reason why you can’t take much from any of Denver and Minnesota’s four meetings this season. But his presence changes things.

Part of the thinking — at least based on what I’m led to believe — in the Timberwolves acquiring Rudy Gobert was for this matchup. With Gobert, Minnesota can use Towns (or Kyle Anderson/a smaller player) to guard Jokic and put Gobert on Aaron Gordon. Gobert could then act as a weak-side rim protector and defensive roamer. The Timberwolves flashed that look this season against Denver.

So Minnesota’s strategy is have someone guard Jokic and have Rudy guard Gordon and help and the issue is Jokic also knows that. So he drives, gets the help, hits Gordon diving. pic.twitter.com/2NNKj7Znun

— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) February 8, 2023

We know of course that Gobert, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year but whose overall defensive impact has fallen off this season, can’t guard Jokic 1-on-1. “I have 47, brother” was only a couple of years ago. But as we saw in Western Conference Finals in 2020 vs. the Lakers, excess length can affect Jokic’s production. Jokic is an entirely different player now than he was in 2020 and you can’t even compare the individual offensive force he currently is to who he was back then, but just a lot of length is probably the only defensive strategy that might be able to slightly contain him.

I predict we’ll get a lighter-scoring series from Jokic than we’re used to — although he’ll still score plenty. It’s going to be on Gordon to hit shots and be active off the ball in this scenario.

Who do the Nuggets play off the bench?

It’s impossible to feel confident in the Nuggets’ bench heading into the playoffs after the 82 games that we just watched. But if that group can defend and get stops, they’ll survive the non-Jokic minutes even if they don’t score. Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, and Jeff Green are locks for rotation minutes off the bench. Then, it gets interesting.

In their play-in game against the Thunder, Minnesota began the second quarter with both Towns and Gobert on the floor against an undersized Oklahoma City second unit. The Timberwolves opened the quarter on a 10-2 to take control of the game. To start the fourth, Minnesota ran Gobert and Anthony Edwards with their second unit. The Thunder didn’t score for the first three minutes of the quarter.

If Minnesota plays Gobert with its bench, I predict Michael Malone opts for DeAndre Jordan. He’s the best rebounding option that Denver has to choose from. The other choice — and I think the preferred one by many including me — would be Zeke Nnaji. With that look, the Nuggets could run Gobert off the floor in those minutes if/when he plays vs. Denver’s bench.

Michael Malone says eight players are locked into his playoff rotation: The starters, and Bruce Brown, Christian Braun and Jeff Green. Who else he plays will be based on matchups, and Malone lists “another big”, Peyton Watson or Reggie Jackson as possibilities in that scenario.

— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) April 9, 2023

The other part of this equation is Edwards. Who is the Nuggets’ primary matchup on him? Edwards only averaged 21 points per game on poor efficiency across four matchups with Denver this season (he did have a 29-point game against the Nuggets this year) but he can get hot. He’s battling a shoulder injury that’s definitely limiting him right now but he can still wound an opposing defense. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should open games guarding Edwards. Christian Braun and Peyton Watson are Denver’s next two best options. Edwards is too big for Bruce Brown.

Here’s how I bet Denver matches up:

Jamal Murray — Mike Conley

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope — Anthony Edwards

Michael Porter Jr. — Kyle Anderson/Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Aaron Gordon — Karl-Anthony Towns

Nikola Jokic — Rudy Gobert

Jamal Murray vs. ?

In their play-in game against the Thunder, Minnesota inserted Alexander-Walker, a rangy, 6-foot-5 defensive-minded guard, into their starting lineup to match up against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It was a move that was suggested by Connelly.

Finch says the idea to start NAW came from Tim Connelly. They intended to eventually move Ant on to Shai but stuck with NAW because he was so good

— Jon Krawczynski (@JonKrawczynski) April 15, 2023

It worked. Alexander-Walker, who’s actually Gilgeous-Alexander’s cousin, held him to 5-19 shooting. So will Minnesota keep Alexander-Walker in the lineup against the Nuggets to guard another Canadian scoring guard?

Alexander-Walker is a solid defender, but he shouldn’t be able to shut down Murray throughout an entire series. He shouldn’t be able to come close to doing that. The pressure will be on Murray to deliver in this matchup that’s going to throw so much length and size at Jokic.

DNVR Nuggets’ X-factors

Adam Mares: Aaron Gordon

“AG has 3 important and difficult tasks in this series: slow down KAT, anchor the paint defense when Jokic rests, and knock down open 3s when they leave him wide open. He doesn’t have to be elite at any of those 3 things but he can’t be bad at any of them.” – Mares

Harrison Wind: Jamal Murray

“With all the length and different matchups that Jokic will see this series, Murray needs to be the Nuggets’ true No. 2. He’ll have to be close to the best version of himself in this series. That means staying aggressive for four quarters, not hesitating from 3, and playing aggressively. He should win his matchup every night.” – Wind

Brendan Vogt: Aaron Gordon

“An early playoff test on how to handle a distinct lack of attention from the defense. Knocking down open shots will be important, but there are myriad other ways to utilize all that space.” – Vogt

Dev Johnson: Aaron Gordon

“Last season, the defensive identity of this team started and finished with AG as he was shockingly asked to defend positions 1-5. This season, he was asked to step up when the time called for it. Well, the time calls for it. AG will get a matchup with KAT and be able to play in help-side as well and assist in protecting the paint. He should relish the opportunity of coming into the playoffs without the west and tear of having to go all-out for the final stretch of the season.” – Dev

Eric Wedum (D-Line): Michael Porter Jr.

“MPJ will have a lot of opportunities to take advantage of the defense collapsing on Jokic.” – D-Line

What’s at stake for Jamal Murray in this postseason?

He can change his reputation forever – both in and outside of Denver. #MileHighBasketball

https://t.co/GxOJG97Tmh pic.twitter.com/1vZI3nxrZQ

— DNVR Nuggets (@DNVR_Nuggets) April 15, 2023

Series Predictions

Mares: Nuggets in 6

Wind: Nuggets in 5

Vogt: Nuggets in 5

Dev: Nuggets in 6

D-Line: Nuggets in 6