Nuggets-Suns: Series predictions, X-factors, key storylines

There’s no way to put it lightly. This is the most-important playoff series of the Nikola Jokic era.

It feels like the Nuggets have been waiting three years for this moment. Denver is finally healthy. Jokic finally has a full cast of competent role players around him. This is the deepest and most complete Nuggets team…maybe ever. And because of that, everything is on the line for the Nuggets against the Suns. The fate of this team as it’s currently constructed could be at stake.

This series is the ultimate test for the Nuggets and the ultimate test for Denver against most of the rest of the NBA. Can Denver’s homegrown roster and core that’s been constructed through the draft and developed on a patient timeline take down a super team in Phoenix that’s been built through free agency and at the trade deadline? The Nuggets should have the talent, experience, and chemistry to get the job done. There are no more excuses for this group.

The first round against the Timberwolves was a tune-up. This series is a main event. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Co. will hopefully bring the best out of the Nuggets. Denver should be ready.

Key storylines that will shape the series

Can either team guard one another?

Booker is coming off an all-time first-round performance — 37.2 points per game (60.2 FG%, 46.7 3P%), 5 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 2.6 steals per game. He’s been arguably the best player in the playoffs so far. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will be his primary defender. Durant was elite in the first round against the Clippers too and averaged 28.4 points (51.8 FG%, 45.8 3P%), 7.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game. Aaron Gordon will be the default matchup on the two-time Finals MVP.

It’s not a question of if the Nuggets can shut down the Suns’ two stars — if you’re counting, that’s a combined 65 points per game that they averaged in Round 1 — it’s about if they can contain them, just make it tough, and stay out of foul trouble. There’s no great matchup for Durant in the league. There might not be a great one for Booker right now either.

The Suns have similar problems on their hands. The Timberwolves had much better personnel to handle Jokic than Phoenix does — and Jokic averaged 26.2 points per game in the series which is right in line with his career playoff numbers. I’d expect Phoenix to eventually resort to double-teaming Jokic as the series moves along.

The Nuggets and Suns should produce an all-time offensive masterclass. It’s the back-to-back MVP and the best individual offensive force in the NBA against arguably the best pure scorer in the league. The best offense might just win.

Will Jokic dominate with his scoring

If you’re beginning to analyze this series from any Nuggets angle, it starts with Jokic. He has to dominate his matchup — and dominate at a level higher than he did vs. Minnesota — for the Nuggets to move on. Deandre Ayton guarded him well in the playoffs two years ago, but this is a different Nuggets team, Jokic is a more powerful scorer on the block than he even was back then, and Denver has more weapons that can make Phoenix pay. The Suns can’t focus the same amount of attention on Jokic that they did in that second-round series.

“This is going to be a different series,” Michael Porter Jr. said at shootaround Saturday morning before Game 1.

Jokic needs to punish Ayton on the block. Denver needs to test Ayton’s pick-and-roll coverage as much as they can too. Phoenix doesn’t have many reinforcements behind their starting center either (Bismack Biyombo is the only other true big man that the Suns played in Round 1). If the Nuggets can turn Ayton into a non-factor, it will force the Suns to adjust significantly.

Do the Nuggets tinker with their bench rotation?

The underlying story of the Nuggets’ five-game series win over the Timberwolves was Denver’s bench. The Nuggets outscored the Timberwolves by 27 points with Jokic off the floor. Denver was able to achieve that margin by deploying a Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, Jeff Green, Aaron Gordon second unit lineup that had played exactly zero minutes together during the regular season.

Brown, Braun and Green are firmly in the rotation and locks for bench minutes again this series. How each game plays out will determine if the Nuggets expand that rotation to 9 or 10 players (DeAndre Jordan if the Nuggets need a big due to Gordon foul trouble or are getting hurt on the glass, or maybe rookie Peyton Watson if the Nuggets need to try another defender on Durant).

Nuggets may have to play Christian Braun 30+ minutes/game in the playoffs, especially if they get the Suns in the 2nd round. Don't think that would be crazy. He was phenomenal again defensively last night.

He guards Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker in the same possession. pic.twitter.com/bal75FRhQI

— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) April 7, 2023

One tweak Malone could look to make is upping Braun’s minutes. He logged 15.5 per game last series while Jeff Green averaged 19.5. That was somewhat expected with how big the Timberwolves’ front line wa. But the Suns play much smaller. Phoenix didn’t play a big man other than Biyombo off the bench in Round 1. Braun playing more than Green in this round would make sense, and it could help both the Nuggets’ defense and rebounding. Braun is an elite offensive rebounder when he crashes the glass, and the offensive glass is an area where Denver can hurt Phoenix. The only game where the Nugget lost the rebounding battle in Round 1 was Game 4. That’s the one game Denver dropped to Minnesota.

It was the final week of the regular season, but Braun was impressive on defense against both Booker and Durant in Denver and Phoenix’s two late-season meetings. He’s arguably the Nuggets’ best matchup for Booker.

DNVR Nuggets’ X-factors

Adam Mares: Christian Braun

The Nuggets need to throw every defender they have at Booker and Durant in this series. Braun might be the only player on the roster capable of guarding both. He isn’t going to shut either one down, but he has to disrupt them enough to make an impact. I feel much better about his chances against Booker. Braun is a pest. If he can get under Booker’s skin, that will be a huge win for the Nuggets. – Mares

Harrison Wind: Jamal Murray

Just like against the Timberwolves, Jamal Murray will determine what kind of series this is. If he plays like he did against Minnesota, the Nuggets will have a great chance vs. the Suns. Frankly, they need him to play at that level or above to advance. I don’t think Phoenix has an individual defender like Nickeil Alexander-Walker who can bother Murray to the extent that he did. – Wind

Brendan Vogt: Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr.’s shotmaking is a given. It’s the rest of his game that could help Denver separate. Phoenix will likely try to guard him with Booker — who is too small. Porter has to crash the class and attack the rim like a madman in this series. He could be the extra piece the Suns can’t handle. – Vogt

Dev Johnson: Aaron Gordon

The Timberwolves series was not for Gordon. He was outmatched due to size and Minny protected the paint as well. He was in foul trouble often and while this isn’t an easier matchup per se, it is one that he meshes well in. Slowing down Durant is the name of the game and making him work on the other end and I think AG earns a bit more respect. – Dev

Eric Wedum (D-Line) : Aaron Gordon

Gordon should be able to muscle his way into whatever he wants. – D-Line

Series Predictions

Mares: Nuggets in 7

Wind: Nuggets in 7

Vogt: Nuggets in 7

Dev: Nuggets in 6

D-Line: Nuggets in 7