Nuggets Roundtable: Who's Denver's x-factor?

The Denver Nuggets are heading for what is shaping up to be a defining season.

They have finally found their star player in 22-year old Serbian phenom Nikola Jokic and the addition of Paul Millsap is arguably the biggest free agent signing in the history of the franchise. Add in the potential sophomore explosion of Jamal Murray and the continued improvement of Gary Harris and the Nuggets finally have the tools to be a powerful force in a lethal Western Conference.

With Nuggets Media Day a week away, Harrison Wind, Joel Rush, and T.J. McBride answered the big questions surrounding Denver heading into the start of the 2017-18 NBA season.

Which player on the Denver Nuggets is in line to take the biggest leap forward?

Harrison Wind: Jamal Murray. Murray is set for the biggest jump out of any player on Denver’s roster because of a bigger role and more minutes. He could be penciled in at the starting point guard slot for the Nuggets from day one, he’s finally healthy after playing through two hernias last season, and his percentages are bound to rise. Murray is a much better shooter than the 33.4 percent he shot from three last season and I wouldn’t be shocked if his conversion rate from distance spikes to around 37 or 38 percent. Murray shot nearly 37 percent on catch-and-shoot jumpers last year so the mechanics are there. At just 20-years-old, Murray is already one of the most confident and focused athletes I’ve been around and that mentality should translate into a big sophomore campaign.

Joel Rush: Murray. Compare his lowly .305 3-point percentage on what NBA.com/stats defines as open shots, with the defender four to six feet from the shooter, with that of Harris (.392), Barton (.385), and Nelson (.362). We know from his sporadic moments of catching fire, most notably blowing up for 36 points in the Rising Stars Challenge, that he is simply a much better shooter who, not surprisingly for a rookie, underperformed and was inconsistent at times. Considering also that he should be fully recovered from a double hernia which hampered his play last season – not to mention that by all accounts he is among the hardest working Nuggets – a healthy, more experienced ‘Blue Arrow’ with a presumed starting point guard role should be poised to break out as a much more potent and efficient scorer than he was last season.

T.J. McBride: Murray. It is absolutely amazing that Murray was able to play through a double hernia all of the last season. What is even more incredible is that the double hernia that Murray has been dealing with apparently goes all the way back to his time at Kentucky. Now that Murray has a full season at the NBA-level under his belt and is fully healthy for the first time since he was in high school he seems primed for an explosive sophomore campaign. He will get an abundance of opportunities with the ball in his hands compared to last season and, if my speculation is correct, it seems that Murray would be the opening day starter at point guard as of right now. Getting extended minutes alongside Jokic and Millsap should do wonders for Murray’s efficiency making him a prime candidate to take a big step forward next season.

Who needs to be the Nuggets x-factor this year to elevate Denver to the next level?

Harrison: Again, this is Murray. I’ve said for much the last year that Denver could potentially have a championship-level core in Murray, Harris, and Jokic, meaning those three players can be your best three players on a championship team if they all keep on their current track and projecting upwards towards each of their respective ceilings. However, Murray has to be Denver’s second-best, or best player, in those scenarios. That rise starts this season and Murray doesn’t have to have a Jokic-level bump from year one to two, but he’s got to establish himself as Denver’s starting one of the future this year if the Nuggets wants to contend with this core. Playing in an offense that plays to his strengths and won’t put too much pressure on him early, allowing him to spend some energy on the defensive end where he needs to improve, bodes well.

Joel: Juancho Hernangomez, also a close runner-up for most improved, is central to one of the most important questions looming over the upcoming Nuggets season: Is he ready to be a legitimate NBA backup small forward? Despite being a more natural four, he appears slated for that role, as Denver has a glut of power forwards with no true threes to back up Wilson Chandler. Hernangomez has looked fantastic in recent EuroBasket tournament play for his native Spain and appears to have bulked up at least a little. Both of these are good signs, which may lend credence to optimism Hernangomez can hold his own in limited minutes off the bench. But if Chandler gets injured, as has often happened throughout his career, Hernangomez will be facing off against the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James, and while he might hang in offensively, his potential defensive liability presents a genuine concern for the Nuggets.

T.J.: Murray. If Denver wants to not just make the playoffs but actually compete in April they will need a monumental jump from Murray on both ends of the floor. Anyone who has spent time watching Murray knows he has all the tools to be an elite shooter but after putting up a true shooting percentage barely over 50 percent in his rookie year the results have yet to bare out. After having surgery to remove a hernia hopefully being fully healthy will lead to his shooting percentages rising across the board.

The bigger question remains on the defensive end of the floor. Having the slow-footed Jokic as the center behind Murray makes defending at the point of attack even more important. If Murray can continue to improve his on-ball defense and become even mediocre defending point guards it will change the composition of the Nuggets’ defense entirely. Murray has the motor and desire to be a solid defender. Now he just needs to prove he can deliver.

What is the biggest question mark for the Nuggets going into next season?

Harrison: How much will Denver’s defense improve? Look, this is going to be a scary offense with the addition of Millsap. The Nuggets will likely be a top-3 offense, and they’ll likely have to be top-5 on that end of the floor if they want to make the playoffs. But the defense, which was the worst in the league last season, is what I’ll be watching closely. Denver has above average defenders on their roster in Harris, Chandler, and Millsap. They have a bunch of capable guys like Murray, Barton, Hernangomez, and Jokic, who has the ability to be an average to slightly above average defender. Can Michael Malone and his assistant craft a scheme that plays to their players’ strengths on that end of the floor? If they can, this could be a top-20 defense.

Joel: How they will resolve the logjams at the point guard and power forward positions. The decision by Tim Connelly to acquire two additional power forwards, spurning glaring team needs for wings who can defend, will have ripple effects throughout this season, and probably longer. The front office’s failure to consolidate the roster means the Nuggets once again have too many players of comparable talent who ostensibly deserve minutes, doing Malone no favors in having to clean up the mess. The point guard slot is likewise crowded but different in that its resolution will almost certainly ride entirely on Emmanuel Mudiay’s success or failure. With the playoffs at stake, Malone will keep Jameer Nelson ahead in the rotation unless Mudiay proves – in what is probably his last chance – that he deserves a promotion.

T.J.: The bench unit and rotations. The Nuggets, barring something extreme, should be starting Murray, Harris, Chandler, Millsap, and Jokic. That leaves a mixture of Nelson, Will Barton, Hernangomez, Mudiay, Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur and Mason Plumlee to form a competent bench unit. How Malone chooses to rotate players and distribute minutes could be defining decisions that directly lead to how productive the entirety of the Nuggets roster can be.

What is your level of optimism leading into the new Denver Nuggets season?

Harrison: If this is asking if I project them to make the playoffs, which would qualify as a successful season, it’s an 8. This should be a playoff team based on the roster and fit. They’re a better team on both ends of the floor than they were last year and are deeper too. Sure, questions remain at point guard, power forward, and behind Chandler on the wing, but those should be sorted out before the regular season tips off.

Joel: 7. My optimism level regarding the players themselves is a 9. I sincerely believe that all four of Jokic, Harris, Murray, and Hernangomez will continue making positive, significant strides in their development, and that this – especially with the addition of Millsap to provide veteran leadership, cohesion, and direction – will result in more wins on the court. Aside from the Millsap signing – which is legitimately tremendous, and I give full accolades for that – the last year of Nuggets front office moves has not inspired confidence – with the Jusuf Nurkic trade, Danilo Gallinari walking for nothing, and the 2017 draft all ranging from bad to terrible. So on this score, I can’t get my hopes up past a neutral 5, which, averaged with my enthusiastic 9 for the players, results in 7 overall.

T.J.: 8. Once Harris and Jokic returned to the starting lineup on December 15th of last year Denver became the most productive offense in all of basketball. Adding Millsap into the fold should make Denver even more lethal on offense than they were last year and that is without taking the internal development of players like Jokic, Harris, Murray, and Hernangomez into account. The pieces are mostly in place for the Nuggets to make a run at the 5th seed in the stacked Western Conference if everything pans out the way that the organization hopes. This is as excited as I have been about a Nuggets squad.