Nuggets Roundtable: What’s Denver’s biggest concern 10 games into the season?

After the Nuggets’ first full four-quarter effort of the season — a 114-89 blowout win over the Knicks — Michael Malone’s club can take a deep breath.

The Nuggets have successfully clawed their way back to .500 and sit right in the middle of a packed Western Conference at 5-5 overall. After four wins in its last five games, Denver all-of-a-sudden boasts the NBA’s second-best offense and eighth-best point differential. Of course, the Nuggets still sit towards the bottom of the league in defense. Heading into Tuesday’s matchup in Brooklyn against the Nets, Denver is giving up an average of 112.1 points per 100 possessions, the sixth-worst mark in the league.

Ten games down 62 to go.

Here’s where Harrison and Brendan think the Nuggets currently stand.

What’s your biggest concern about the Nuggets right now?

Harrison: The Michael Porter Jr. situation

For me, this Nuggets regular season was always going to be about the process, and mainly the process of integrating Porter alongside Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in Denver’s starting lineup. Establishing an on-court chemistry between those three is the Nuggets’ ticket to potentially improving on last season’s Western Conference Finals run and should be Denver’s top priority throughout this regular season. But Porter will miss his seventh-straight game tonight in Brooklyn due to COVID protocols and will likely be out of the lineup for at least a few more games. That process couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start.

Porter opened the season in Denver’s starting lineup and in 48 minutes over the Nuggets’ first four games of the season, the Porter-Jokic-Murray-Garry Harris-Paul Millsap five-man lineup posted a 116.8 Offensive Rating, a 127 Defensive Rating and a -10.2 Net Rating. Since Will Barton stepped into the starting lineup, Denver’s first five has been much better. The Murray-Harris-Barton-Millsap-Jokic lineup has a 130.5 Offensive Rating, a 111.9 Defensive Rating and an 18.6 Net Rating across 94 minutes in the six games that Porter has missed. On the year, that lineup is scoring 131.6 points per 100 possessions. It’s the best offensive lineup in the league that’s logged at least 50 minutes.

That lineup’s success combined with the fact that Denver’s has won four of its last five games seems like it would signal that when Porter returns he’ll initially come off the bench. Thus, Porter’s minutes alongside Jokic and Murray on a game-to-game basis will be drastically cut compared to where they were when he was in the starting five. It’s a big step-back in getting Porter to mesh with Jokic and Murray in what was already looking like it would be a year-long process. It’s fine if Porter starts out in a sixth man role when he’s activated, but the Nuggets need to follow a roadmap that eventually has him re-joining the starting lineup.

Brendan: The Defense

The Denver Nuggets are indeed on track to produce one of the best offenses in the league. Yet, they’re struggling to stay at .500. It doesn’t help that key players have missed games, and the JaMychal Green injury derailed the hot start they hoped to generate. Nonetheless, if this team could stop a nose bleed, they might still be in good shape to this point in the season.

Per CleaningTheGlass.com, Denver gives up 112.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s by far the highest mark in the Malone tenure and puts them 22nd in the league, their worst placement since the 16-17 season. The Nuggets are generating turnovers, but as the eye test confirms, their opponents shoot the lights out. They’re also allowing a whopping 27.4 ORB%. These numbers can change drastically after such a small sample size, but the drop-off is no surprise. After losing Jerami Grant and Torrey Crag in free agency — and while the impact of those losses has been misunderstood and at times overstated by the national audience — Denver lacks defensive-oriented wings. Or, in Craig’s case, a guard stopper masquerading as one.

To Wind’s point, this has all occurred without the benefit of growing pains. Michael Porter Jr. is still away from the team, and incremental defensive improvement without him doesn’t instill confidence. If the Nuggets are to compete for a title, he will be starting. If he’s starting, he’s their best bet (by default) to defend specimens on the wing without a deadline deal in place. Can Tim Connelly bring in a true 3&D to fill Grant’s shoes? Will Porter grow into a formidable defender? One seems more likely than the other, and Denver will have its hands full in the postseason if neither occurs.

What has you most encouraged about the Nuggets right now?

Harrison: Nikola Jokic

Denver’s defense should be OK. It’s not going to be close to elite this season but it should be passable for most of the year. The bench is trending up and I’m not too worried about Jamal Murray’s quiet back-to-back games over the weekend either. I think he’ll be fine.

The best thing Denver has going for it right now is its All-NBA center. Nikola Jokic is having an incredible season, and big surprise, it’s flying way under the radar. He’s averaging 24.4 points per game, which is up 4.5 points from what he poured in per game last season. Jokic is also leading the league in assists and nearly every catch-all advanced stat: PER, Win Shares, Offensive Win Shares, Win Shares per 48 Minutes, Box Plus-Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player. He’s the kingpin of the NBA’s second-best offense and is averaging 103.8 touches per game, the second-most in the league behind Domantas Sabonis.

For my money, Jokic has been the best player in the league so far this season, but Denver is just 5-5. It’s not his fault. The Nuggets’ role players, from Gary Harris to Will Barton and even at times Jamal Murray have been wildly inconsistent. For the first two weeks of the season, the Nuggets’ bench was a tire fire. However, with Jokic playing at this level it’s going to be really hard for the Nuggets to miss the playoffs even if some of Denver’s current faults stay present all season.

Brendan: The Offense

Matchups matter in the playoffs, but across these 72 games, the Nuggets can survive their defensive holes if they’re scoring enough points. Denver sits third in the NBA, scoring 117.1 points per 100 possessions. That’s a lot, and it’s happened under suboptimal circumstances.

Michael Porter Jr. has missed significant time. Will Barton III is still recovering, or at the very least getting back into shape after rehabbing his knee. Gary Harris just recently busted out of what was arguably the worst offensive slump in the league. Even Green’s return has done wonders for the bench. To this point, Nikola Jokic is dragging these guys to elite offensive efficiency. But by the end of the year, I’m optimistic they’ll put up these kinds of numbers, if not better, without breaking much of a sweat.

It’s hard to remember now, but this regular season is all about integrating Porter. What will it look like if he, Jamal Murray, and Jokic tap into on-court chemistry? Perhaps Wind wasn’t overzealous in his preseason hype — this could be a historically great offense.

Who have been the Nuggets’ five best players so far this season?

Harrison:

1. Nikola Jokic

2. Jamal Murray

3. Monte Morris

4. JaMychal Green

5. Michael Porter Jr.

Brendan:

1. Nikola Jokic

2. Jamal Murray

3. Monte Morris

4. Michael Porter Jr.

5. JaMychal Green

Who’s been the Nuggets’ biggest surprise and disappointment?

Harrison: Surprise – JaMychal Green | Disappointment – Gary Harris

I looked at JaMychal Green as a solid offseason signing and logical pick-up for Denver after losing Jerami Grant. I didn’t expect him to be the glue that’s held the Nuggets’ second unit together so far this season. Green’s shooting 55% from three on 3.3 attempts per game and has been strong on the glass and defensive end of the floor. He’s outplaying Paul Millsap right now and at this rate I wouldn’t be surprised if Green supplanted Millsap as Denver’s starter by the end of the regular season.

Maybe Gary Harris’ last two games are a sign of what’s to come. Maybe he’s rediscovered his shot after two-straight poor shooting seasons. But through the first eight games of the year, he was one of the worst three-point shooters in the league. I had high hopes for Harris coming into this season. Why? Probably just because I still want to believe. If Harris can continue to knock down triples he’ll unlock an entirely new dynamic to Denver’s offense. We know he’ll always be a strong defensive presence.

Brendan: Surprise – Nikola Jokic | Disappointment – Will Barton

I’ll say it: I didn’t see this coming from Nikola Jokic. That’s not to say I doubted he had it in him, but we’ve seen his slow starts in the past. It’s one thing that he reported back to “camp” in great shape, but it’s another entirely that he’s approached the games with such zeal. It almost looks like he’s trying to win MVP, something I’m sure he would emphatically deny. The best players in this league don’t approach the regular season as if they’re above it. They embrace it, attack it, and show night-in and night-out why they’re not to be overlooked. Jokic is entering that territory now, and it’s a sight to behold. After that Clippers series, I got excited and finally put it on record that I think he’s a top-five player. It felt hot then, and it feels cold now. He might be the best player on the planet through 10 games.

Time to derail my hype-train and douse myself in a glass of cold reality. Will Barton, among the very most productive non-stars in the league when healthy, is either not healthy or not yet in shape. He’s struggling personally. It’s worth noting the five-man unit of he with the starters in Porter’s stead is not struggling. They are whipping ass. But we can all see Barton doesn’t have his typical juice out there. He can’t convert much around the rim, and his defense took a big step back. He’s earned more time than this to make a definitive judgment, but he hasn’t looked great.

Predict the Nuggets’ record after their next 10 games

Denver’s next 10: at Nets, vs. Warriors, vs. Jazz, vs. Thunder, at Suns, at Suns, at Mavs, at Heat, at Spurs, vs. Jazz

Harrison: 11-9 (6-4 over the next 10 games)

The Nuggets have had the easiest schedule in the league, per Basketball Reference, so far. But they’re entering into a grueling 10-game stretch. Denver also travels to Phoenix in late-January for a COVID special, a road back-to-back where the Nuggets play the Suns twice on consecutive nights.

Wins against the Warriors, Jazz, Thunder, Suns, Spurs, Jazz.

Losses to the Nets, Suns, Mavs, Heat

Brendan: 12-8 (7-3 over next 10 games)

The sun will come out tomorrow (today). Denver is trending in the right direction after consecutive strong performances from the bench, and they’ve won despite a quiet Murray of late. I think Murray gets it going again in this next stretch, and I’m excited about Porter’s reintroduction. Of course, that could entail some bumps in the road, but I think they’re ready to make a run. I apologize in advance for when this does not happen.

Wins against the Nets, Warriors, Jazz, Thunder, Suns, Mavs, Spurs

Losses to the Suns, Jazz, Heat