Nuggets Roundtable: Series predictions, top X-factors and more

The Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers open their first-round series tonight at Ball Arena.

Here’s how the DNVR Nuggets staff views the matchup.

Who is Denver’s X-factor?

Adam Mares: Aaron Gordon

There will be no shortage of X-factors for the Nuggets in this matchup but the top of that list for me has got to be Aaron Gordon. Gordon wasn’t brought in for his offense. He is best described as a versatile and capable offensive player, not necessarily an explosive one. But the Nuggets will need to get creative in their offensive attack as teams start to overload on Michael Porter Jr. The Nuggets will likely play through Gordon out of the post more than usual, as I wrote about on today’s LIST. He’ll also have to hit the glass harder than usual since there will be a great opportunity to generate second-chance points.

Harrison Wind: Aaron Gordon

It’s Aaron Gordon. The Nuggets need Gordon to clearly be their third-best player this series. Gordon must stay active off-ball in the half-court and find seams to cut to the basket for easy buckets. He’s got to knock down open threes at a higher clip than the 26.6% he’s shot since arriving in Denver. He’s also got to be a force defensively. Portland doesn’t pack the elite scoring wing that the Nuggets imagined him guarding when Denver acquired him at the trade deadline, but Gordon can’t let Carmelo Anthony become this series’ Rodney Hood. He’ll also have to be ready to rotate if/when Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum beat the Nuggets’ guards off the dribble.

Brendan Vogt: Facundo Campazzo

How can the shorthanded Nuggets stop Damian Lillard? If I’m a Blazers fan, I’m licking my chops right now. From the Denver side of the fence, the answer to that question is the ultimate X-factor in this series. Argentinian fans have promised us a relentless and improved version of Campazzo as we enter winning time — and his resume gives them solid ground to stand on. Will Campazzo fluster Dame to a degree none of us are willing to predict? I’m not holding my breath, but I’m not ruling it out either —time to meet playoff Facu.

Dev Johnson: Facu Campazzo

Facu Campazzo is Denver’s X-Factor. He is the unknown for the Nuggets, and after a whimsical season, there are high expectations for him leading into the series. The Nuggets are going into their first-round series without Jamal Murray, Will Barton, and P.J. Dozier and look towards an NBA rookie to lead the way. Lucky for the Nuggets, Facu is a veteran with plenty of big-game experience and has been moving in the right direction. His ability to affect the game on both ends of the floor will be paramount to the Nuggets success, and his natural ability as an irritant is why he’s Denver’s X-factor. I expect Facu to show up.

Eric Wedum: Aaron Gordon

Gordon will have the luxury of not getting the same defensive focus as Jokic or MPJ. He will also likely have the favorable matchup of Melo defensively at times, something he should be able to exploit. The offensive potential of AG mixed with the defensive prowess we all know he has when the situation calls for it makes him a very good candidate to rise up and play the same type of role that Jerami Grant did in last year’s magical bubble run. We have seen brilliant play from Gordon at times, and it’s not unreasonable to think he will ratchet his game up in these high-leverage situations.

Which Nuggets role player is most likely to swing a game

Adam: Facu Campazzo

The Nuggets have two stars and a bunch of role players so my answer from above still holds. It’s Gordon. But taking him off of the board, I think Facu needs to play a large role in this series. Keeping Damian Lillard from going off will be his tallest task. Keeping the offense on track by knocking down open threes, getting into the paint, and finishing at the rim will also be essential. The Nuggets needs Facu to be ready for this level of play. If he is, the Nuggets should win this series.

Harrison: Facu Campazzo

Gordon is the most likely candidate because he’ll log so many minutes and have ample opportunities to produce. But my pick is for Facu Campazzo to swing a game with his defense and shooting. Campazzo will get under Lillard’s skin at some point in this series. It might not happen in Game 1, but there will be an instance where Lillard cracks for a few seconds. Campazoo just does that to All-Star guards. I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a game where Facu tallies four or five steals and hits a few open threes. That could be enough to tilt a game in Denver’s favor.

Brendan: Paul Millsap

This won’t be Millsap’s first rodeo, and we just saw him swing the Clippers series with a timely explosion. Millsap’s playing well off the bench, even if his production has varied with that unit in flux. Portland’s got some second unit guys that can get hot and change the complexion of a game. Perhaps Millsap can hold them in check, or at least do the same. His tank isn’t empty yet.

Dev: Paul Millsap

The Nuggets role player that is most likely to swing a game is Uncle Paul. Although he has stepped into a different role than even only a season ago, he is made for these big moments and gives the Nuggets their defensive identity. He is the team’s enforcer and gives them their toughness, he matches the intensity in games, and also, a matchup against Portland seems like a match-made series in which he can swing things. I do think that he gets big minutes in this series. And with there not being back-to-backs, Denver is able to preserve him. He should be available in every game. We know what to expect from him defensively, but can he take advantage of the mismatches presented offensively? The battle of the second unit will be the difference-maker in these games, so having a veteran presence like Millsap can be the deciding factor in the series.

Eric: Austin Rivers

Austin Rivers is a vet in this league and is no stranger to big NBA moments. He showed Nuggets fans a few glimpses of the talent that has made him a starting player on many playoff teams before. If Rivers can find his stroke for a game or two during the series, there is no reason to think he can’t have a game or games where he scores in the 20’s. Combined with what we all expect from Jok and Showtime, that combination could be lethal.

What will Michael Porter Jr’s series-high in points be?

Adam: 38 points

The Nuggets could really use a 40+ point game or two out of Porter but that might be asking too much, too soon. His career-high is just 39 points. It’s not that he isn’t capable of scoring that many points when he finds the opportunity, it’s that he isn’t yet great at consistently finding the opportunity. Half of scoring at the NBA level is knowing how to put yourself in position to take and make the kinds of shots you want. Porter is still learning how to read and react to shifting defenses and the playoffs will bring a level of intensity and physicality that he hasn’t experienced yet as a second (and sometimes, first) option. So I will put my cap at 38 points.

Harrison: 40 points

The narrative coming out of last year’s playoffs is that Michael Porter Jr. struggled. The reality is that he did at times, but Porter also showed well for a rookie in his first postseason. He scored 28 points and went 6-9 from three in Game 2 vs. Utah. He came off the bench to score in double-figures in four of seven games vs. the Clipper and in four of five games vs. the Lakers. Sure, he struggled defensively, but I thought overall it was a very positive playoff debut.

Porter is such a different player now. He’s so much more experienced and seasoned on both ends of the floor. Porter’s now much more capable defensively, even though Portland will still target him in the pick-and-roll. On offense, his confidence has grown significantly from where it was last season. He’ll be logging close to 40 minutes per night in the playoffs and will probably shoot 10+ threes in several of Denver’s playoff games. The Nuggets just need that type of volume and offensive production from him.

Porter seems like he’s in a great headspace right now. He seems ready for the moment. Portland will try and focus its defense on him because if you shut down Porter, you can really limit Denver’s offense. But Porter is built for this. He seems ready for the moment. I bet he sets a new career-high this series.

Brendan: 35 

I’m not sure we see a 40-piece from Porter, but I think he can find his offense consistently throughout the series. To drop forty points in the playoffs is a big-time feat. It takes more than one supernova quarter, and Porter’s still working on dominating games from start to finish. That said, this is a professional scorer who will reach elite status sooner rather than later. We’ve waited so long for Porter’s time. It’s now.

Dev: 42

Michael Porter Jr. has exceeded every expectation made for him and then some, and I expect this playoff run to be no different. This was the year of MPJ, and he has come into his own. He is putting historical numbers while also improving in every single category and now steps into the series as the Nuggets second-best player and arguably most important. He’s put up huge numbers all season long, and I think he has a “Yeah Mike” game for the ages. I say that his high will be 42 points in a pivotal Game 3 where he goes nuclear from beyond the arc.

Eric: 38

MPJ is a phenom. 40 point games are going to become part of the regular MPJ experience as his career stretches on. I’m not ready to declare that he is already at the point where we can just expect this kind of outpouring so early in his career, but then again, I’m only stopping two points away from saying that. We all expect big things from the MIP candidate, but I don’t see this series as the one that he goes fully nuclear in.

What aspect of the Trail Blazers scares you the most?

Adam: Lillard and McCollum, easily

There really isn’t another aspect of the Blazers that worries me. They have a lot of secondary weapons in Normal Powell, Carmelo Anthony, and Enes Kanter and those guys could swing the series but the Blazers are capable of winning a game or two without any of those guys if you cannot contain Lillard and McCollum. Campazzo, Rivers, Monte, and Shaq Harrison all have defensive chops but proving it on this stage will be a chore.

Harrison: Lillard/McCollum…but also Melo

Facu Campazzo can make himself a Denver Nuggets legend if he’s really able to limit and frustrate Damian Lillard in this series. Austin Rivers will have his hands full with CJ McCollum, who feasted in the 2019 playoffs when the Blazers and Nuggets met. If you’re looking for a candidate who’s this year’s Rodney Hood, it’s Carmelo Anthony, who will come off the bench and be the focus of Portland’s second unit. If he gets hot, he could swing a game or two, as Hood did two years ago. The pressure is on Aaron Gordon to slow him down.

Brendan: Got to be the Guards

Lillard scares me, McCollum scares me, even Powell makes me uncomfortable. The Blazers score the ball with ease, and these three are probably feeling confident heading into this matchup. Campazzo, Austin Rivers (if healthy), and Aaron Gordon should feel some weighty responsibility on their shoulders in round one. Welcome to Denver.

Dev: Portland’s guards

What scares me most about the Trailblazers is their guard play. It is already a tall task trying to slow down Lillard and McCollum. Now without Gary Harris and Will Barton, it is going to be extremely difficult for the Nuggets to limit what the guards can do. Then add in the fact that Portland added Norman Powell, and that is a tandem that can cause issues for teams. The Nuggets will have no issues scoring the basketball, but slowing down a backcourt with that kind of firepower can be difficult. Denver will have to be locked in from start to finish and not allow anybody to get going early. If they miss an assignment or two and allow one of those players to get loose, it will be a long day.

Eric: CJ McCollum

Cool basketball Urkel ended our dreams here in Fraud City 2 years ago by systematically picking apart the Nuggets’ defense and just raining mid-range jumpers down until we couldn’t take any more. I can still see him splitting two defenders to find open space and draining what amounted to the winning shot as my eyes filled with tears. Both of the guards on Portland are the type of players that cause nightmares in opposing fan bases, they certainly aren’t infallible, but McCollum has a knack for this type of thing and I’m still terrified until further notice.

Series prediction

Adam: Nuggets in 6

It’s bold to take the Nuggets winning a playoff series in fewer than 7 games. It quite literally hasn’t happened in over a decade. But if the Nuggets can hold Lillard and McCollum to their averages, the Nuggets should be able to ride Jokic and Porter to the second round.

Harrison: Nuggets in 7

And it will somehow be a closer series than when these two teams met in 2019. The Nuggets not only has the best player in the series. They have the best player in the world.

Brendan: Nuggets in 7

Through Jokić, all things are possible, and most wins are likely.

Dev: Nuggets in 7

This is a tough series and one that I have gone back and forth with. I just know that Denver is a team that never gives up. You can never count them out. They also have some weird, otherworldly connection to the No. 7. Nuggets in 7.

Eric: Nuggets in 6

The Jokic Era is upon us. Even though we all went and wrote our expectations of the opposing squad, this and now every series moving forward is no longer about how the Nuggets can handle the best players on the other teams. The question is how can the Blazers possibly try to stop the league’s MVP.