Nuggets Roundtable: Midseason stock report

This week An Nguyen (@The_NGUYENNER), Dan Fatigato (DNF_on_NBA), Luke Binder (@303luke), and Joel Rush (@NuggetsDenJoel) came together to hopefully shed some light on some of the bigger questions surrounding the Nuggets.

With the Nuggets at the halfway point in the season, what has been the biggest positive thus far and why?

An: It’s got to be the development of Nikola Jokic. The beast has been unleashed and the hype has proven to be warranted thus far. Jokic has single-handedly transformed a Nuggets offense that was prone to stalling into a spread-out, free-flowing offense predicated on ball movement. The cherry on top is Jokic’s knack for making plays has rubbed off on the rest of the team, as everyone is looking to make the extra pass. When you consider his insane efficiency and shooting threat, it’s easy to see why Jokic is becoming a rising star in this league.

Dan: As I type this, the Joker currently has 31 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists late against the Spurs. That he’s proven his rookie year numbers in limited playing time wasn’t an aberration has to be the best thing the Nuggets have going for them. Jokic gives them a baseline consistency that’s been lacking in recent years. The more the offense revolves around him and his multi-faceted skills, the more pressure is released from the rest of the team. The fruits of Jokic’s rise – better spacing, more ball movement, less pressure on Mudiay’s shoulders – make the game easier for everyone involved. Update: 35 points for Big Honey!

Joel: Jokic should be the unanimous answer here. So assuming that’s the case, I will zoom in on one particular aspect of the many great things he brings to the table for this team, and that is this: Now we know who the Nuggets are, and they are Jokic’s team, period. All these frustrating questions: Should they compete or tank? Should they trade veterans and go for a rebuild? Trade assets for a star? Where is this team headed, and where should it be? What is their vision for the future? What the heck is this team? Jokic has emerged as the Magic 8-Ball which solves many, albeit perhaps not all of these riddles. The team now has a clear identity for the first time since the Karl firing, and it revolves both literally and figuratively around Jokic at its center.

Luke: The Nuggets have identified a cornerstone player in which they can build around, Jokic, and the importance of that is immense. Jokic at the center of things means a roadmap out of NBA Siberia finally has been found for Denver. You can build around Jokic, he’s going to be an all-star very soon. And the style of basketball that he plays brings the best out in his teammates. I don’t think the Nuggets have been able to say that about a player since Carmelo Anthony.

With the Nuggets at the halfway point in the season what has been the biggest disappointment thus far and why?

An: For me, it’s Jusuf Nurkic. I’m guilty of buying into the preseason hype when Nurkic shed a ton of weight and was living in the gym, working all summer. Instead of being the immense presence in the paint and rim protector many fans hoped, he is being held back by his own pride, tending to sulk whenever things don’t go his way. It’s disappointing to see such a talented individual putting immense pressure on himself to be the top dog on a team that already has one.

Dan: Honestly, that despite the young talent on the roster and slight improvement overall, the Nuggets are still dead last in attendance, per BasketballReference.com. We know that it’s a Broncos town, but not even the sad-sack Avalanche are in the bottom five in NHL attendance. Perhaps it goes to show that some of the things that we basketball nerds get excited about do not translate to the mass audience. At the end of the day, you need a marketable star or stars. Can Jokic and Jamal Murray become those guys? There’s a sliver of hope there but man, how can the Nuggets not out-draw teams like the Nets or the Pelicans?

Joel: I really like Malone, and I want to believe, so I hate to choose him here. And I hope my end-of-season answer will be different. He deserves, in my opinion, to be cut some slack given the enormous complexity of the decisions he faces with such a crowded head-scratcher of a roster. But that’s why he makes the big bucks. To his credit, some positives can be gleaned from the last month. Notably, the humility it took to admit Jurkic was a mistake and scrap it was the key that unlocked Jokic, and perhaps salvaged both the Nuggets’ season and his job. But he seems too often to be playing Whack-a-Mole, always trying to respond and catch up with the team dynamics rather than proactively implementing effective practices. In fairness, he seems to have an improving handle on things now, so let’s hope that keeps trending.

Luke: It’s hard for me to say this because I like him so much, but Danilo Gallinari hasn’t lived up to the expectations that he talked about before this season began. As always, Gallinari is steady. However, the Nuggets really needed him to be great, and it just hasn’t happened. You wonder if he can take that leap from “good” to “great” or if this is just what he will be. Unfortunately, it’s beginning to look like that window for greatness is closing and I’ll always wonder what Gallinari could have been if not for the knee injury.

What do you want to see the Nuggets do more of in the second half of the season?

An: Continue to build on the positive momentum we’ve gathered thus far. Malone is slowing figuring out which lineups work best and once the team gets used to the continuity and starts gelling, the Nuggets will be even more dangerous. Even if the goal is making playoffs, make no mistake — this is still a learning season. As long as the team is learning and getting better, it’s a victory.

Dan: As long as we’re dwelling on poor league rankings like attendance, here’s some more. Defensive rating – 29th. Opponents points per game – 28th. Opponents turnover percentage – 30th. Opponents 3-point percentage – 25th. It’s no secret the defense has been abysmal all season, and that it’s wearing on the head coach. But to truly compete for that 8-seed down the stretch these rankings need to creep up into the low-20s. Playing Jokic at the 5 is necessary but comes with defensive trade-offs. Denver may need to bite the bullet on porous post defense if it means covering the 3-point line more effectively.

Joel: Establish consistency on both ends of the court. Now that Malone has essentially figured out his rotations, the roller coaster style wild fluctuations in execution and effort (as epitomized by the losing streak which killed late December’s momentum) need to be dramatically limited. Granted, given the youthfulness of the roster some of this can fairly be chalked up to inexperience. But now that they have established a well-defined identity (at least on offense) and clarified most players’ roles, they must take the next step and build on this progress to establish reliable, effortful performances night in and night out.

Luke: Play defense. It’s pretty simple.

Jokic has obviously been the best player on the roster but who would you consider the most improved player from the end of last year to now and why?

An: I’m going to say Danilo Gallinari. He’s always been good skill-wise, but he’s playing much better basketball this season in terms of learning how to play as a team. Most of this I attribute to his growing trust in the young teammates. Instead of playing the iso-heavy basketball that he loves so much, he’s beginning to move the ball and is looking to make plays while driving to the rim (the times where he’s not flailing his arms for a foul — sorry Gallo). He’s become absolutely deadly as a three-point shooter and that is exactly what the Nuggets need from him to keep the paint wide open, the catalyst of this current scoring spark.

Dan: I suppose the best answer is Mudiay, given how far he had to go to begin with. It’s tough because I find myself in a constant tug-of-war, being disappointed by his erratic play and below-average shooting but then remembering his age. He still has a long way to go. But his improvement has been real in terms of shooting efficiency and reduction in turnovers.

Joel: Although the sample size of Jokic as sole starting center since mid-December remains small, this one-month span reveals positive indications that, after a disastrous season start, the lineup change has helped Mudiay finally turn the corner to make strides toward significant improvement over his rookie campaign. This mostly comes in the form of efficiency rather than outright production, which is precisely the area he most badly needed to fix. Comparing Mudiay’s last 15 games to last season, his shooting percentages are up across the board, including climbing from .319 to .373 on 3-pointers with more attempts per possession and jumping from .670 to .806 on free throws. Just as importantly, he has now reduced his turnover rate from 5.0 per 100 possessions last season (and 4.8 in November) to 3.5 in the last 15.

Luke: I could say a number of players have vastly improved this year compared to last season. But the member of the Nuggets who seems to have improved most to me is Michael Malone. He has steadied the ship through numerous slumps and rocky moments. Because of this, the Nuggets looked capable of making the playoffs and getting things turned around this year instead of “next year” – which never seems to work out in sports. Whether or not the Nuggets qualify for the postseason will be linked to how well Malone coaches in the second half of the season. That’s my hot take.