Nuggets Roundtable: Is Denver a contender?

Michael Malone always likes to say that the most important game on Denver’s schedule is the next one. That’s definitely been true over the last week.

The Nuggets had their biggest win of the season in their biggest game of the season Sunday against the Jazz. Next up? The Lakers on Thursday in Los Angeles in what will replace that Jazz matchup as Denver’s biggest game of the year.

After 20 games, here’s how Harrison Wind, Adam Mares and Brendan Vogt think the Nuggets stack up against the Lakers and whether or not Denver can be regarded as a contender after winning 11 of its last 15 games.

The Nuggets are the __ best team in the West

Harrison: Fourth

Utah’s 11-game winning streak in January was impressive and the Jazz are a very, very good team right now. But over that streak, the Jazz beat just two teams with above .500 records at that time, the 5-4 Bucks and the 8-7 Warriors. Still, Utah has been a better and more complete team than Denver so far this season. One week from now that could change, and with how the Nuggets have been trending I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver jumps Utah soon. In a playoff setting, I’m still taking the Nuggets’ blueprint over the Jazz’s though.

Adam: Fourth

I still think the Jazz are a better overall team right now than the Nuggets, the Nuggets just have their number. The playoffs very well might become a paper, rock, scissors-type scenario where “worse” teams have favorable matchups against “better” teams. I think Denver is on the rise and there’s a great chance the Nuggets are just outright better than the Jazz by the postseason but right now, I think Denver is behind them in their process.

Brendan: Third

Denver has a higher ceiling. Utah looks like a complete team now, but despite Denver’s injuries and unavailabilities, they’ve weathered the storm and kept themselves competitive out West. The Nuggets play the Jazz well, and the Jazz, to be frank, have a history of peaking a little too early. Utah looks excellent and is something more than a formidable rival, but the Nuggets have the MVP candidate. If the Nuggets get healthy, and as they work Micahel Porter Jr. into the fold, they’ll prove themselves the better team.

Are you concerned about Jamal Murray?

Harrison: Mildly concerned, but only because his injuries continue to pile up. I asked Murray Wednesday if he feels any better physically after the Pistons game was postponed and the Nuggets got an unexpected day off on Tuesday. He said he feels the “exact same way” and the extra night off was good, but if his elbow or shoulder gets hit he’ll start to feel pain again. My read is that his injuries are definitely hampering his play and Murray will continue to play through them. The Nuggets have enough depth and talent (and the leading MVP candidate) that Denver should be able to snatch a top-4 seed in the West even if Murray continues to play inconsistent basketball. As long as he levels up his play in the playoffs, his regular-season inconsistencies are OK.

Adam: I think Murray has been better than he seems to be given credit so far this season but he is certainly still battling to find consistency in his game. I’m not concerned because I feel confident that he will be ready when the games matter most. Unfortunately, I think Jokic will have to continue to save them more often than not until Murray gets his legs under him.

Brendan: The mounting injuries and unfortunate workload concern me most. Perhaps consistency; sustained greatness across 82 (or less) games, isn’t in the cards. But I’m still hesitant to label Murray’s bubble run as a fluke. I think that came from something deep inside him. Something you can’t teach. His considerable talent notwithstanding, Murray might be more cut out for the moment than he is skilled. Built for the playoffs, I expect he’ll live up to expectations when the time is right — but he has to stay healthy in the meantime.

How many players in the league would you take over Nikola Jokic?

Harrison: None. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Nil. Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the league this season and he’s had less help than any other top-tier MVP candidate so far.

Adam: None. And for the first time ever, that isn’t hyperbole. Sure LeBron James has a higher single-year peak but if you are talking about who you would rather be building your team around, Jokic is the number one best option out there. He’s proving even to his biggest skeptics that his ceiling is significantly higher than people assumed as recently as 8 months ago. There are players who might be “better” than him right now, but no player gives the city of Denver a better chance at long-term success and the ultimate success of winning an NBA championship like Nikola Jokic.

Brendan: Conservative take: Jokić is a top-five player. I won’t argue with doubters on this one — that’s me being generous. LeBron James is the best basketball player on the planet, but he’s not playing better basketball than Jokić at the moment. No one is. If I were in charge of the Denver Nuggets, the answer is zero. This guy is just getting started.

What should the Nuggets starting five be right now

Harrison: Murray-Harris-Porter-Millsap-Jokic (if the Nuggets are at full health). That being said, I’m OK with Denver bringing Porter off the bench for now. When Porter left the lineup due to COVID one month ago, the Nuggets were 1-4 and desperately needing to string together some wins. Denver was able to do just that with the starting five its been rolling with (before Harris went out). My biggest worry about Porter right now is the same one I had late last season. He’s an improved defender, but at this moment it’s still hard to trust him late in games on that end of the floor. He could keep improving and could eventually make a defensive leap at some point over the second half of the season. That could happen, but I’m not betting on it.

Adam: With Gary Harris and PJ Dozier out, I’d love to see the Nuggets experiment with some new combinations. Murray, Barton, Porter, Green, and Jokic makes the most sense but I’d be open to swapping Barton or Porter for Campazzo or Monte. Why not see what you have?

Brendan: Murray, Barton, Porter, Millsap, Jokić. I’ve always loved the idea of that lineup, and unfortunately, it’s existed mostly in the hypothetical state. With Harris and Dozier out, the defense might slip. Lean on those five and lean into the offense. Green can and should close if it’s a bad matchup for Millsap.

Do you consider Denver a contender right now?

Harrison: Right now, no. But Denver could be a contender one month from now. The Nuggets still need more help around Nikla Jokic. They need Michael Porter Jr. and Will Barton to play more consistent basketball. Denver will also need a lot more from Jamal Murray if it wants to cross over into contender status. The Nuggets’ loss in San Antonio to cap their five-game road trip last week was Exhibit A in that argument. Jokic scored 35 points and did all he could to get Denver a win. Murray was Denver’s second-leading scorer that night with 20 points but was sitting on 16 until the 1:08 mark of the fourth. The game was already decided by then. Jokic simply needs more help.

Adam: If by right now you mean February 3rd, I’d say no. If by now you mean the 2021 season, I’d say yes. Denver is still a work in progress but I think they have the pieces in place to compete this year so long as they get expedited growth from Michael Porter Jr. and a return to bubble form for Jamal Murray.

Brendan: Denver’s a fringe-contender. Like last year, they could find themselves in trouble early or peak out with a magical run. The playoff floor is lower without Grant and higher — in theory — with a more experienced Porter in the starting lineup. An electrifying ascension from the latter or a reassuring deadline deal could change things. In the meantime, the Nuggets remain extremely talented yet noticeably flawed.

What would be the result of a Nuggets/Lakers playoff series right now?

Harrison: Lakers in 6, but the good news is that the playoffs aren’t for another few months. The Nuggets knew that this season would be a slow build and if Denver is peaking in May instead of January or February that’s a good thing. Still, how the Nuggets’ current roster matches up with the Lakers (and the Clippers for that matter) is still scary. If Denver wants to go all-in on its playoff hopes this season, the Nuggets most likely need to make a significant trade.

Adam: Right now I think it would be a Lakers win in 5 or 6 games. Their defense is closer to playoff form than Denver’s is and their identity is a bit more sorted out. But that is OK. In some ways, not being good enough right now is a positive as it can encourage the team to keep working. It’s a 72-game season for a reason. The Nuggets have another 52 games to reach their peak form.

Brendan: The Nuggets aren’t ready for most playoff series right now. Ideally, the season is about getting the new guys up to speed and figuring out how to optimize MPJ’s talent. For whatever we’ve learned about this team so far — good or bad — we’ve barely begun to answer the questions surrounding Porter. The Lakers win the series easily if it starts tomorrow. We’ll see to what extent Denver can alter those expectations.