Nuggets Quarterly Review: Can Denver find the next Will Barton at the trade deadline?

In Feb. 2015, Tim Connelly made one of the more defining trades of his Nuggets’ tenure. Midway through the 2015-16 season, Connelly dealt Arron Afflalo and Alonzo Gee to the Trail Blazers for Will Barton, Victor Claver, Thomas Robinson and a lottery protected 2016 first-round pick.

The headliner of the trade at the time was Afflalo. Across 53 games, Afflalo was averaging 14.5 points per game while shooting 42.8% from the field and 33.7% from three-point range, and 3.4 rebounds per game. The Trail Blazers were looking to acquire a veteran to bolster their bench ahead of playoff push and Afflalo fit the bill. Heading towards a 30-win season, the Nuggets were looking to collect future first-round selections after pocketing two from the Cavs in a trade for Timofey Mozgov a month earlier.

The first-round pick Denver received in the Afflalo deal became Malik Beasley, but the real prize of the 2015 deadline deal turned out to be Barton. In Portland, Barton, a 2012 second-round selection, was buried on the bench behind Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum and Steve Blake. Barton had talent and the tales about him outscoring Lillard and McCollum in closed-door scrimmages were well-known, but he couldn’t play his way into consistent minutes.

Barton was on Connelly’s radar well before the 2015 trade was constructed. Both are Baltimore natives and as a sophomore Barton played varsity basketball at Baltimore City College under Mike Daniel, who was also Connelly’s coach at Townson Catholic High School in the early 1990’s. After graduating from Brewster Academy in 2009, Barton enrolled at the University of Memphis, where one of Connelly’s younger brothers, Dan, had just taken a job as a graduate assistant.

The Nuggets tracked Barton throughout his first few years in Portland and were excited to see what he could do with the consistent playing time Denver had to offer. Barton was a sub-30% three-point shooter and played inconsistent defense, but Connelly had been hearing rumblings about his work ethic and competitive juices for the last 10 years.

The rest is history. Barton became on of the NBA’s best sixth men during the 2016-17 season and ascended to the Nuggets’ starting small forward in 2018.

A Barton-esque deal is one way the Nuggets can win this year’s trade deadline. The players who fit the profile Barton had in Portland — a high-upside player who’s just a couple years into his career but blocked from getting consistent rotation minutes — are endless, but it’s the job of NBA front offices to identify those talents.

Of course it helps if your GM and that player had the same high school coach.

Perhaps that player is someone like Zhaire Smith, the 76ers’ 16th overall pick in 2018 who’s spent much of this season in the G League and hasn’t been able to break into Philadelphia’s rotation. Denver really liked Smith in the 2018 draft too and tried to trade back into the first-round to select him after drafting Michael Porter Jr. 14th overall. More likely it’s another former second-rounder like Barton who’s buried on someone’s bench.

The Nuggets have the assets in Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez or Torrey Craig to acquire that type of player along with a future draft pick — similar to the haul Denver got for Afflalo. However, what the Nuggets can get as a return depends on what Denver wants to dangle in trade talks.

With the Nuggets’ current injury situation, Beasley is an integral piece to Denver’s rotation. He’s less of one when the Nuggets are fully healthy and Denver may lose him for nothing in free agency next summer. Craig’s defense and rebounding can also make him a key figure in the Nuggets’ postseason lineup as he was a season ago when he started 11 of 14 games, but Jerami Grant’s defensive makeup can replicate some of Craig’s production on that end of the floor. Michael Porter Jr.’s emergence over the last month throws another wrench into Michael Malone’s potential playoff rotation.

All of it makes for a trade deadline where the Nuggets have options. The moves Denver makes or doesn’t make over the next two weeks could help shape the Nuggets’ roster years down the line.

Wind’s Q2 Nuggets Awards (12/9 – present)

MVP: Nikola Jokic – Jokic early-season slump seems ages ago. He’s averaging 21.8 points on 53.9% shooting from the field and 39.2% from three-point range, 9.8 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game since Dec. 1, numbers which are pretty on par with the 21.4 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game he averaged from Dec. 1 through the end of last season. He’s back. He’s been dominant, and he’s trending towards a second-consecutive All-Star and All-NBA First Team selection.

Q1 Winner: Nikola Jokic

DPOY: Jerami Grant – Millsap would be the selection here but he’s missed Denver’s last eight games. Grant hasn’t been perfect on defense but has had a couple really encouraging showings against the likes of Luka Doncic and Kawhi Leonard. His ability to switch onto smaller guards and wings in a playoff setting will be integral to the Nuggets’ postseason success.

Q1 Winner: Gary Harris

MIP: Will Barton – Barton’s play has fallen off a bit over the last month — mainly his three-point percentage — and Barton shot just just 30.8% from three-point range in December after hitting more than 40% of his triples in October and November. He’s rebounded so far in January.

Q1 Winner: Will Barton

Sixth Man: Monte Morris – Morris has looked like the guy he was last season over the last several weeks. He’s been a steady force from three-point range all season long, and is converting on 39% of his 3s. Morris has also rediscovered last season’s pick-and-roll chemistry with Mason Plumlee, who unfortunately for Denver is set to miss at least the next two weeks with a foot injury, as of late. As it’s been for the last two seasons, the Morris-Plumlee two-man game is the key to the Nuggets’ second unit.

Q1 Winner: Jerami Grant

Biggest Surprise: Michael Porter Jr. – I thought Porter was going to be able to make an impact this season, but he’s way further ahead of where I thought he’d be mid-way through his rookie year. Who was the last rookie to score as effortlessly as Porter? Kevin Durant? At this rate he can be the difference-maker in a playoff series come April. Per 36 minutes, Porter is averaging 20.2 points and 10.3 rebounds per game.

Q1 Winner: Bol Bol

Best Win: 124-116 over Indiana – The Pacers (26-15) have just five losses at home this season

Q1 Winner: 105-95 over Houston

Best Performance: Nikola Jokic finishes with a career-high 47 points (16-25 FG’s, 4-8 3FG’s, 11-16 FT’s), 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 1 block in 37 minutes in the Nuggets’ 123-115 win over the Hawks.

Q1 Winner: Jamal Murray finishes with 39 points (14-24 FG’s, 7-12 3FG’s), 4 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 steals, 1 block in just 31 minutes in the Nuggets’ 131-114 win over the Grizzlies.