Nuggets Quarterly Review: Biggest surprises, trends, and why a trade could be coming

At the 21-game mark of the 2018-19 season the Nuggets were 14-7. And through 21 games this year, Denver’s record bears the same number of wins and losses.

But while last year’s start was filled with optimism, the Nuggets don’t have the same holiday cheer percolating around their team this December. Why is that?

With greater expectations comes harsher criticism. The Nuggets said it themselves at Media Day over two months ago: they wanted to be a championship team. So that’s the standard they’ll be held to. When Nikola Jokic comes off of a dominant playoff performance and a fourth-place finish in MVP voting and starts the season in one of the worst slumps of his career he’s going to get criticized. When Denver’s bench — a unit which returned all of its key members from last season’s group that excelled for most of the year and added Jerami Grant — can’t seem to find its footing eyebrows will be raised.

We’ve also had to retrain our minds to what signifies great Nuggets basketball this season. Denver is not the imaginative offensive team that its been for much of the last few years around Jokic. This season, the Nuggets are a defensive juggernaut that’s going to try and slow their opponent down and more often than not have been winning by taking the opposition’s best offensive option out of games. It’s been an adjustment for the viewer.

The big two look like they’re going to be OK

Aside from a lower three-point percentage, Jamal Murray’s individual numbers this season look identical to his stats from last year. But also give Murray credit for keeping his efficiency the same while his usage percentage climbed slightly from 24.1% to 25.2% this season. His increased steal numbers also give a good indication of his improved play on the defensive end of the floor.

Nikola Jokic? Not so much.

However, Jokic looks like he’s going to be alright. After suffering through arguably the worst offensive slump of his career, Jokic rebounded with a season-high 30-point effort against the Celtics, and then 24 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists a night later in Brooklyn.

Deep breathes.

The Nuggets have been even better with Jokic and Murray on the floor together this season than last year too. Last year Denver outscored its opponent by 6.1 points per 100 possessions with Jokic and Murray playing together. This year that number is up to 8.2 points per 100.

The Nuggets will need better play from both, mainly Jokic, to reach their championship-level goals this season, and if Jokic isn’t playing at or very close to the level he got to in the playoffs last April and May Denver will struggle to make it out of the first round. But if Jokic gets back in that zone and Murray improves over the second half of the season, the Nuggets’ ceiling gets raised.

The Nuggets’ defense is very real

Through 21 games last season, the Nuggets’ fielded the third-best defense in the league and allowed on average 103.2 points per 100 possessions. This season, the Nuggets are even better over the first two months of the season on that side of the ball. Denver is allowing on average just 102.3 points per 100 possessions so far this year, good for the second-best defense in the league.

What does that similar year-over-year trend tell us? I’m confident in saying that this Denver defense is very for real, but the odds are that the Nuggets will regress slightly on that end like they did last year when Denver finished the season as the 10th-ranked defense and gave up on average 108.1 points per 100 possessions.

Even if there’s some regression coming, the Nuggets can be proud of where they are defensively and the habits they’ve established bode well for Denver’s impending playoff run. Gary Harris has looked like one of the better perimeter defenders in the league, holding Luka Doncic (12 points on 3-12 shooting) and Bradley Beal (14 points on 6-15 shooting) to their lowest scoring outputs of the season. Harris also has the fifth-best Defensive Field Goal Percentage per NBA.com and is holding his matchup to a slightly lower field goal percentage than Kawhi Leonard this season.

Millsap has been a rock on the backside of Denver’s defense too and doesn’t appear to have lost a step on that end. Murray is also an improved defender this season as is Will Barton. Nikola Jokic’s defense has been good as well. The Nuggets’ starting five has played 133 more minutes than the league’s second-most played lineup this season, and only seven lineups that have played at least 100 minutes together are sporting a better defensive efficiency. They’ve been dynamite.

Jerami Grant has struggled

Grant’s struggles this season say more about the current state of Denver’s bench and less about Grant’ long-term fit and upside with the Nuggets. Monte Morris and Malik Beasley have seen their efficiency drop and that group which has also included Mason Plumlee, Torrey Craig, and Juancho Hernangomez for portions of the season hasn’t produced too many prolonged stretches of consistent play.

Grant has struggled along with the rest of his second unit counterparts. He’s shooting an encouraging 36.1% from 3 (but was at around 32% before a 5 of 7 performance against the Nets), after converting on 39.2% of his triples last season and is also taking significantly more triples in Denver than he did in Oklahoma City (7.6 3s attempted per 100 possessions this season compared to 5.2 per 100 last year), which can’t be how the Nuggets envisioned his skill-set would be used. If Denver wanted just a pure shooter at the four they would have acquired one.

The question for the Nuggets becomes how do they unlock Grant’s skill-set? Maybe that means more minutes next to Jokic although the initial numbers with that pairing haven’t been good (the Nuggets have a -17 Net Rating in the 114 minutes that Jokic and Grant have shared the floor for.) But you’ve got to think Grant has the basketball awareness and skill to get one easy bucket after another playing next to the best passing big man of all-time. That’s certainly what I envisioned him doing when the Nuggets traded for him this summer. If it’s not alongside Jokic, maybe that means playing Grant at the five where he can nestle into the dunker spot more often (currently that locale is occupied by Mason Plumlee whenever the two are on the floor.)

Will Gary Harris turn his offense around?

The biggest difference in Harris’ shot profile from last year to this year is at the rim. During the 2018-19 season, 36% of Harris’ field goal attempts per Cleaning The Glass came at the rim. This season, just 29% of Harris’ shots are coming at the rim. It’s a noticeable drop.

Three seasons ago, Harris shot 69% at the rim, a mark which placed him in the 89th percentile among all shooting guards in that category. But his shooting percentage on shots of that variety has fallen each of the last two seasons.

Harris also started the year poorly from beyond the arc but is back up to 36.8% from 3. I’d expect that number to continue to climb towards the 39.6% figure he shot two seasons ago — the last year when he’s been fully healthy. Also, his All-NBA defense this year gives him a bit of a pass on the offensive end of the floor, but his struggles have definitely contributed to the Nuggets’ muddled start on offense.

Harris is shooting just 41.4% from the floor after registering a 42.4% field goal percentage last season, which was the lowest he shot since his rookie year before this season. More attempts closer to the basket could raise that shooting percentage.

What lies ahead for MPJ?

Michael Porter Jr. has logged 103 minutes for the Nuggets so far this season. He’s shooting 46.7% from the floor and 5 of 15 (33.3%) from 3. When he’s gotten regular rotation minutes, he’s looked tentative and there’s been more than a few examples of Denver’s offense stalling for a couple valuable seconds while Porter is late reacting to whatever play call the Nuggets make. Defensively he’s struggled at times, something that’s fully expected of a rookie that’s been away from the game for nearly a year. NBA defense is so nuanced and advanced that it takes years and years to master and Porter is still getting up to speed.

But he’s flashed his potential too. Take his fourth quarter against the Celtics for example when Porter entered the game alongside Denver’s other four starters and immediately hooked up with Jokic on a perfectly executed dribble-hand-off sequence that ended in a basket.

My early read on Porter this season is that he’s played better and more at ease when he hasn’t been given such a tight leash, which he had earlier this season while a part of the Nuggets’ second unit. Porter knew he was going to have the wiggle room to make a mistake or two, or three in a 20-plus point game in Boston. But if he made a mistake in a five-point game mid-way through the second quarter, he’d get pulled.

You certainly get the feeling that more minutes are coming Porter’s way. The Nuggets offense isn’t improving, and Denver’s attack is ranked just 20th in the league, an unfathomable number for a team this talented that’s centered around Jokic. Porter’s next shot at rotation minutes could be coming soon.

Should the Nuggets pursue a trade?

If Denver wants to open up more minutes for Porter (and they should) one way they can do so is with a trade. The Nuggets’ most likely player to be traded in my personal opinion? Malik Beasley. Denver is likely going to lose him for nothing after this season when he’s slated to hit restricted free agency and if you can flip him for a first-round pick next summer (something the Nuggets are currently without and which Beasley would surely net), you make that deal.

Also, the Nuggets can’t go through this season without gaining some insight into what they have in Porter. Along with Beasley, Millsap, Hernangomez, and Torrey Craig are all slated for free agency next summer and Denver could have a 20-25 minute role available for Porter on the wing next season. The Nuggets need to find out over the course of this season if they can count on him to fill that role next year. It could determine how they operate this summer.

The Nuggets’ offense needs a spark too and just some flat out new energy. Porter provides that. Play him with Jokic and the starters some so he’s around some other capable playmakers. Denver’s franchise cornerstone clearly recognizes how talented he is too. If you want Porter to potentially be a factor in the playoffs, this is when you work out the bad habits in his game so he can be trusted in the postseason.

“He’s just a great offensive player,” Jokic said. “He’s patient. He’s waiting for his chance. We all know he’s talented. He’s hitting the glass. I think he’s going to be really good.”

Wind’s Q1 Nuggets Awards

MVP: Nikola Jokic (Paul Millsap, Jamal Murray) – Jokic has had an underwhelming season so far but he’s still the engine that makes the Nuggets go. For as poorly as he’s played at times Jokic has still been Denver’s most important player.

DPOY: Gary Harris (Paul Millsap, Will Barton) – Harris has played at a First Team All-Defense level for most of this season. Millsap hasn’t lost a step either.

MIP: Will Barton – I thought Barton was going to bounce back from a poor 2018-19 campaign but I wasn’t expecting him to be this good.

Sixth Man: Jerami Grant – The Nuggets’ bench has been inconsistent this season, and Grant has struggled to find his footing within Denver’s offense. But he’s had some good moments and has been the best of a below-average bunch.

Biggest Surprise: Bol Bol – He’s been an absolute stud in the G League if you haven’t been paying attention.

Best Win: 105-95 over Houston

Best Performance: Jamal Murray 39 points (14-24 FGs, 7-12 3FGs), 4 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 steals, 1 block in just 31 minutes in the Nuggets’ 131-114 win over the Grizzlies.