Nuggets Playoff Preview: What play-in team should Denver want to face?

The playoffs are here, but the Nuggets won’t know their first-round opponent until the conclusion of the NBA’s play-in tournament on Friday. Who should the Nuggets want to face out of the Lakers, Timberwolves, Pelicans, and Thunder? What player in the play-in tournament scares you the most? DNVR Nuggets discusses.

What play-in team should the Nuggets want to play in the first round?

Adam Mares: I think it is easily the Thunder.

They are young, inexperienced, and more one-dimensional than every other team in the playoffs out west. Shai would be a tough cover but there are things a team can do in the playoffs to force the ball out of his hands. Inside, there is no one who comes close to guarding Nikola Jokic.

Harrison Wind: Thunder

This is pretty obvious. The Thunder are the only West play-in team below .500 and are 40-42 this season. They are good defensively (13th overall in DRtg this season) but don’t have a prayer in guarding Nikola Jokic, who averaged 24.3 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists across three meetings this year while shooting 67.6% from the floor. The Nuggets went 3-0 in those three matchups. OKC did take Denver to OT once but the Nuggets were without Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr. in that game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will eat in this series and the only Nuggets player who proved he could provide any resistance against him this season was Vlatko Cancar (remember that from November?) But this should still be a series the Nuggets breeze through, although the atmosphere in Oklahoma City for those two games will be electric. When it comes down to it, OKC shouldn’t have the overall talent to compete with Denver.

Brendan Vogt: At the risk of being boring, I’ll also take the Thunder. It’s crucial to catch at least one easy win in a title run, and this is their best shot at a sweep. To play devil’s advocate, the Nuggets play down to their opponents. There’s a case to make that they’d be better off against Minnesota or New Orleans — two teams they can handle but will draw better basketball out of them.

What player in the West play-in is the toughest matchup for Denver?

Mares: Anthony Davis

I have confidence that Jokic would score against him and the Lakers defense but I don’t have any confidence that Jokic can guard him on the other end of the court. Aaron Gordon doesn’t have the length to guard Davis, nor does any of Denver’s various utility defenders like Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, or Zeke Nnaji. Davis would be a problem for the Nuggets. But he also might bring out the best from the two-time MVP.

Wind: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SGA is averaging a monster 32.5 points (54.9 FG%), 4.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game in three games against the Nuggets this season. Jamal Murray, can’t guard him. He’s too big for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown but too quick for Aaron Gordon. Gilgeous-Alexander attacked the paint and finished at the rim with ease against the Nuggets this year. Across those three matchups with Denver, SGA shot 24-33 (72.7%) from less than 8 feet. Denver’s best defender on Gilgeous-Alexander might be someone who didn’t spend a lot of time guarding him this season: Christian Braun.

Vogt: Kevin Durant

Who guards him? He doesn’t see AG. Braun and Watson won’t be starting, and MPJ is likely unprepared for such an assignment. Porter at least has the length, but something tells me that one of the most complete scorers ever will figure that assignment out. Denver seems better equipped than ever to deal with CP3 and Booker. They won’t have much of an answer for KD, though.

How would the Nuggets would do in a series vs. every play-in team

Mares:

• Nuggets 4-0 over the Thunder
• Nuggets 4-2 over Pelicans
• Nuggets 4-2 over Timberwolves
• Nuggets 4-3 over Lakers

Wind:

• Nuggets 4-1 over Thunder
• Nuggets 4-1 over Pelicans
• Nuggets 4-1 over Timberwolves
• Nuggets 4-2 over Lakers

Vogt:

• Nuggets 4-1 over Thunder
• Nuggets 4-1 over Pelicans
• Nuggets 4-2 over Timberwolves
• Nuggets 4-3 over Lakers (don’t trust the whistle)