Nuggets' path to the eighth seed is coming into focus

NEW ORLEANS — This time next week the Denver Nuggets will either start their prep work for a first-round playoff series with the Golden State Warriors or begin the process of readying themselves for the NBA lottery on May 16 and then the NBA draft in June.

Portland currently leads Denver by just a half-game in the race for the Western Conference’s eighth seed but the margin is essentially one-and-a-half due to the fact that the Trail Blazers have secured the head-to-head tiebreaker in case both teams finish with the same record.

Here’s every possible scenario with just one week to go until the end of the regular season.

The oddsmakers still don’t like Denver. FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Nuggets just an 11 percent chance at the playoffs. But don’t tell coach Michael Malone.

“A lot of people keep on counting us out,” Malone said after the win over New Orleans. “We lose three in a row and a lot people kind of give up hope. Everybody in that locker room is remaining positive, optimistic and we’re going to play this thing out.”

The vibe inside Denver’s locker room after their win against the Pelicans was a positive one. Granted Denver got a big road victory, something that’s only happened 16 times this season, but Nuggets’ players are still thinking playoffs, asking for updates on Portland’s game in Utah, (also Tuesday night), from anyone in the room with a smartphone handy.

With the win Tuesday, Denver’s still alive and actually playing their brand of basketball, which they’ve done over the past couple of weeks while the Trail Blazers are limping towards the finish line.

Since losing starting center Jusuf Nurkic to a fractured fibula on March 30, Portland has gone 1-2. Their sole win came against the Suns in their first game without Nurkic but the Trail Blazers have since dropped two straight — a road loss to Minnesota and another defeat away from the Moda Center at the hands of the Jazz on Tuesday.

Losing Nurkic hurts, there’s no doubt about it. The Bosnian transformed Portland into an upper-tier defense with him on the floor and helped kickstart Damian Lillard‘s spectacular March where the 26-year old averaged 29.1 points on 49.8 percent shooting from the field and 41.7 percent from three.

Granted it’s been just three games, but without Nurkic, Portland is slipping back to the deplorable defensive team they were before his arrival.

Over their recent three-game stretch with Nurkic sidelined, the Trail Blazers gave up an average of 115.7 points per 100 possessions. That’s even a spike from the 108.1 points per 100 they allowed with him on the bench since he was acquired from Denver on Feb. 12.

Nurkic’s absence has also hurt Lillard. In his last three games, Lillard is averaging 24.0 points, down from the 28.7 he averaged with Nurkic in Portland up until the big man’s injury. Lillard’s also shooting just 33.3 percent from the field and 31.0 percent from three over his past three games.

It’s a small sample size and one that could flip if Lillard goes off against Minnesota, the league’s 26th-ranked defense this year, on Thursday. But it’s also worth noting.

But the slipper still doesn’t seem to fit for Denver, who visits Most Valuable Player candidate James Harden and the Rockets Wednesday on a back-to-back before hosting the Pelicans and Thunder. The Nuggets then play in Dallas next Tuesday and are in Oklahoma City for another date with Russell Westbrook, (who could be looking to whip some last undecided MVP votes) on Wednesday.

The Trail Blazers won’t have to leave the comfort of Portland again or grind through any more back-to-backs either. They host Minnesota, Utah, San Antonio and New Orleans to finish the year out.

“It’s coming down to the end,” said Gary Harris, who had the game-winning steal against the Pelicans essentially keeping Denver’s season alive. “We knew it was going to be like this. Just got to take care of us and do what we’re supposed to do and hopefully, all the chips fall into place.”

Nuggets set for showdown in Houston

Fresh off their win over the Pelicans, things don’t get any easier for Denver. Sure enough, the brutal end-of-season schedule that the Nuggets saw coming months ago is here.

Regular season game No. 78 | Denver Nuggets (37-40) at Houston Rockets (52-25)

Toyota Center, Houston, Texas | 6:00 PM MST | TV: Altitude

While both Denver and Houston will release their injury reports later in the day, both teams come into tonight’s matchup banged up. The Nuggets could be without Jameer Nelson (right calf strain), Will Barton (left foot soreness) and Darrell Arthur (left knee soreness), all of whom missed Denver’s win in New Orleans. The Rockets recently lost swingman Sam Dekker for the season with a fractured left hand that he suffered Sunday against the Suns.

James Harden (illness) and Trevor Ariza (personal reasons) did not play in Phoenix but are expected to be active tonight versus Denver.

Harris versus Harden

The Nuggets were able to put the clamps on Harden in their first matchup of the year, limiting the MVP candidate to 20 points on 6-16 shooting. Oddly enough, Denver was able to subdue Harden in that game without their best perimeter defender, Gary Harris. Harris played against Harden in Denver’s last two meetings with Houston — both Nuggets losses — but Harden poured in 39 and 40 points respectively in those outings.

The matchup with Harden is one Harris looks forward to.

“I’m a competitor,” Harris said. “I’m going to go out there and compete every night no matter who I’m lined up against.”

After their win over the Pelicans, coach Michael Malone, as he’s done often this year, called Harris “one of the better young two-way players in the NBA.”

“Every night we’re putting him on the opposing team’s best player. He doesn’t get many easy nights, whether it’s guarding MVP candidates or whoever,” Malone said. “What I love about Gary is he never shy’s away from that. He embraces that. He wants that challenge. He wants that opportunity to measure himself against the best players in the NBA. When the game is on the line, some guys shy away from the moment and I think Gary Harris is a young player who embraces that opportunity.”

It’s back to work for Harris and the Nuggets tonight in Houston.