Nuggets need to push for 2016 second-round pick ahead of NBA trade deadline

 

In the Tim Connelly era as general manager of the Denver Nuggets, he has used four second-round picks on the following players:

2013 NBA Draft: 

Erick Green, 46th overall via trade with the Utah Jazz.

Joffrey Lauvergne, 55th overall via trade with the Memphis Grizzlies.

2014 NBA Draft: 

Nikola Jokic, 41st overall.

2015 NBA Draft: 

Nikola Radicevic, 57th overall. (Pick coming to Denver from the Los Angeles Clippers in 2009.)

Of the four guys above, three have suited up for the Nuggets and Radicevic, a crafty 6-foot-5 point guard (who is coming off labrum surgery to his hip) could be the next overseas import of the Connelly tenure. Green is no longer with the team, Lauvergne, who drew comparisons from Connelly of Nick Collison, has proved to be a capable back-up big man and Jokic has been the breakthrough player that teams wanting to take a jump must have.

Consider the impact of the following players:

Spurs: Manu Ginobili was selected with the 57th pick in the second-round of the 1999 draft. Tony Parker was selected with the 28th pick in the first-round in the 2001 NBA draft.

Warriors: Festus Ezeli was selected with the 30th pick in the first-round of the 2012 NBA draft and Draymond Green was selected by Golden State just five picks later with the 35th overall selection in the second-round.

Clippers: DeAndre Jordan was selected with the 35th pick in the second-round of the 2008 NBA draft.

Ginobili and Parker have been key cogs to multiple championships with the Spurs, Ezeli and Green have proved invaluable to the Warriors and their 2014-15 NBA title and Jordan has been a key piece for the contending Clippers. Parker and Ezeli are the outliers above as they were first-round picks, but they were such late picks that the scouting departments of the Spurs and Warriors must be commended for their finds.

Connelly has seemingly struck gold with his 2014 selection of Jokic and found building block pieces with Jusuf Nurkic, 16th overall pick, and Gary Harris, 19th overall, in that same draft. The pattern seems to be simple for the Nuggets as they like to gamble with their second-round picks. They misfired in 2013 by trading away the 27th overall pick, who turned out to be Rudy Gobert, to gamble on the non-guaranteed contract of a second-rounder (Erick Green), but Denver has done a nice job finding players in the second-round — Green included.

Nuggets do not currently own a second-round pick for 2016

The Nuggets traded their 2016 second-round pick to the Philadelphia 76ers back on Feb. 20, 2014 as part of a deal that sent Andre Miller to the Washington Wizards and brought back power forward Jan Vesely. That 2016 second-round pick now belongs to the New Orleans Pelicans, according to BasketballInsiders.com and will convey from Denver this summer.

It’s very hard to imagine the Nuggets not trying to get a second-round pick back for the 2016 draft. They have done an incredible job scouting overseas in the past few seasons with the help of guys like Connelly, Assistant GM Arturas Karnisovas and International Scout Rafal Juc. It would be a wasted effort not to take a flier on an overseas prospect in the second-round. And who knows, the Nuggets may use their own first-round pick on an overseas product this summer.

How is a second-rounder better than a first-rounder? 

We’ll see how the Nuggets look after the trade deadline, roster wise; but for now the team has three potential roster openings as the following players are in the final year of the contracts: Randy Foye, J.J. Hickson and Mike Miller. Two players have options heading into the offseason: Darrell Arthur (player option for the 2016-17 season) and Joffrey Lauvergne (non-guaranteed deal for 2016-17 at $1.7 million. Joffrey’s deal is non-guaranteed until Aug. 15 and then it’s guaranteed $854K until the first game of the season — when it becomes fully guaranteed).

Of the group above, Miller, Arthur and Lauvergne could possibly return to the team — with Joffrey being a no-brainer if he’s not moved at the deadline. Meanwhile, both Foye and Hickson are very likely in their final seasons with the team. That means Denver may possibly have 11 players under contract (we’ll assumer Miller is not on the team) for the 2016-17 season. Save one spot for one first-round pick (either Denver’s pick or the Knicks’ pick — whichever is better) and that number jumps to 12. With only three open spots on a maximum 15-player roster, the Nuggets may have a difficult time using whatever other first round picks come their way this season.

Potentially the Nuggets could wind up with four total first-round picks: their own or Knicks’, the Blazers pick (if they make the playoffs), the Rockets pick (if they make the playoffs) and the Grizzlies pick (if they finish No. 6-14 in draft order after the lottery). With first-round picks counting against the team’s salary cap and being fully guaranteed, one has to wonder just how many of those picks the Nugget actually want.

Would it make sense, if the Nuggets got four total picks, to stock their roster in the offseason with just rookies? If Denver receives all four picks, that would be the case if they just drafted at all four spots. Or could the Nuggets look to package some of those picks in attempts to move up-or-down in the draft or out of the draft?

With second-round picks, those contracts do not have to count against a team’s salary cap if the player does not sign a contract with that team — but Denver would keep the player’s NBA rights. The Nuggets — like they did with Green, Lauvergne, Jokic and Radicevic — could let a prospect play overseas and look to bring them to the team at a later date. That would make sense if the team wanted to allow the young guys to gel and then add in more prospects as the rebuild progresses. One has to figure that Radicevic will be in the mix for the Nuggets as an option either this summer, or next season or the following summer as a backup point guard option. Jameer Nelson has that role for now, but Denver has an option waiting-in-the-wings if Radicevic proves capable.

Second round picks are valuable for teams like the Nuggets that have sniffed out prospects overseas and have taken chances on under the radar NCAA prospects like Erick Green. Denver has been wise in keeping their cupboards stocked, and that strategy should not be halted.

How can the Nuggets acquire a second-rounder? 

Denver could look to trade guys like Foye, Hickson, or Lauvergne straight up for a second-round pick. The team could ask for second-rounder in any big trades they make. Or they could wait until draft night and trade one of their late first-round picks for a second-rounder like they did in 2013 with Gobert and Green (proceed with caution!).

Again, for a team that likes to take chances in the draft, it would make sense for the Nuggets to exhaust all options at the trade deadline for a second-round pick in 2016.