Nuggets must stay the course in rebuild that is rapidly moving forward

 

Life as a rebuilding franchise can be a bit cushy at times.

It’s easy and enjoyable to sit back and watch your draft picks mature on-and-off the court, each memorable play drumming up talk of how they will look next year, how they will mature over the summer and how they project as players over the course of their careers. Especially when a general manager like Tim Connelly has done such a responsible job crafting a young roster with this much upside, it’s become customary to dismiss losses as learning experiences and questionable play on the court as part of the process.

And that’s fine.

The Nuggets are really only in the first year of their rebuild. It’s a rebuild that has been ramped up a bit due to the surprising ascension of likely first-team all rookie selection Nikola Jokic, the encouraging second half play from Emmanuel Mudiay and the stabilizing force Gary Harris has been throughout the season.

This rebuild was never going to be a tear it down, start from scratch version of the Philadelphia 76ers 7-year plan – that’s not this ownership or Connelly’s philosophy. Instead it’s a two to three year process to get the Nuggets back into the playoffs and go from there.

Danilo Gallinari‘s recent comments, which you can read in full here, vented some built up frustration with this rebuilding process, another injury-riddled season and a third consecutive year without a playoff appearance.

“In the beginning of the season I wanted to go to the playoffs. I thought we had the chance to do it, that we had the team to do it. So, mission not accomplished. That’s the negative part. Honestly, maybe there are some positives for sure, but for me after all I’ve been through in Denver, going to the playoffs every year and fighting for something every year, to not be able to do that this season was very frustrating for me.”

“The thing that I would like to change and get back to here in Denver is playoffs should not be in our vocabulary. We should be thinking about championships. I’m tired of thinking about playoffs, playoffs, six, seven, eighth spot. I want to think about championship. That’s something that we always thought when I came to Denver. That’s what I felt as soon as I came to Denver coming from New York where we were not winning.”

Gallinari is 27-years-old and will be 28 before next season starts, he’s in the latter stages of the prime of his career, and with his injury history knows that he doesn’t have that many years left to be the No. 1 option on many teams. He wants to get back to the playoffs, and that’s fine, but you would think Gallo knew what he was getting into when he extended his contract to stay in Denver last summer.

Barring a franchise altering trade for Kevin Love, a max-level free agent coming to Denver this summer or a combination of the two, a championship run isn’t in the near future. The Nuggets are responsibly sticking to the script of how a small to mid-market franchise competes in the NBA. Draft well and hope for a little luck, identify your core, and pair them with a coach who can develop them on the court.

Trusting the process

They’re not just three words that every 76ers Hinkie-ite lives by, but a general rule of thumb when in the midsts of a rebuild that Nuggets brass needs to keep in mind over the next couple years.

Gallinari’s comments about this season being a disappointment (which it hasn’t) paired with the Nuggets attendance — which has ranked last in the league all season — might trigger some thoughts throughout ownership and management about accelerating the rebuilding process.

I would hate to see Denver throw money at an established star like Pau Gasol of the Chicago Bulls, just to get butts in seats next year. And being one of the teams to throw max money at Golden State Warriors forward Harrison Barnes could be disastrous. But this is a business and money has to be made, you just hope that cooler heads ultimately prevail for the Nuggets.

It’s a mistake the Orlando Magic, who are in a similar situation to the one Denver finds themselves currently in, are probably going to make this summer. Orlando, who was accumulating assets and doing a good job of it over the past few years, did a complete 180 this summer when they hired Scott Skiles, and then suddenly cleared room at the trade deadline by moving one of their young pieces in Tobias Harris in a desperate attempt to set themselves up for free-agency and get back to the playoffs, as soon as this season.

Well, Orlando isn’t making the playoffs and while it’s too early to get a substantial read on who they’re targeting this summer, pretty much everyone I’ve talked to around the league regarding their situation disagrees with their course of action. Orlando is a more attractive destination for free agents than Denver, and the fact that they’re in the weaker Eastern Conference and Florida has no state income tax sits well with free agents. I would hate to see Denver follow a similar trajectory.

Denver isn’t in position to attract that upper tier free-agent kingpin, so acquiring a star through a trade should be the route the Nuggets go if they are looking to add a name this summer and get back to the playoffs next year. With assets like Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and a bevy of draft picks, Denver has the exact bounty trade partners like Cleveland and Chicago, two teams most recently linked with unhappy star players, would want in return.

The Cavaliers, Bulls and Clippers, who discussed a Blake Griffin trade with the Nuggets at the deadline, are interested in players that can come in, keep them relevant and in the playoffs. You can throw the Kings into that group as well of teams with a star that don’t want to bottom out after a mega-deal. The draft picks are then an added bonus to keep in your back pocket.

Playoffs in 2016-17

It’s still early to talk about expectations for next year largely because it’s impossible to know if this roster will be the same after an offseason which I’ve stressed is the most important one for Denver to get right in recent years.

Yet, Gallinari’s comments on the state of the team, especially if he’s on the roster next year, the embarrassing attendance numbers, and the encouraging play of Denver’s young core could push along this rebuild quicker than anticipated.

As I referenced at the top, a rebuild is enjoyable to be a part of from my perspective. It’s fun to get excited about an Axel Toupane corner three or a Nikola Jokic pocket pass. However, those feelings aren’t sustainable for multiple years and there will definitely be more expectations on this team next season.

The reality is that even if Denver brings back the same team, expectations will be a return to the postseason. Golden State and San Antonio are givens to be at the top of the West again, but after that it gets murky. Kevin Durant‘s impending free agency means Oklahoma City’s status as a member of the Western Conference’s elite remains in limbo, the Clippers could be in for a major shakeup this summer and the Grizzlies have major concerns with their coach, Marc Gasol’s foot injury and Mike Conely’s free agent status. The Rockets, Blazers and Jazz should be in the playoff mix as long as they stay healthy, while Dallas has a big summer ahead of them as well.

It will be tough out West next season as it always is. If New Orleans can bounce back next season, if Minnesota continues to progress, or if the Lakers emerge from the rubble they’ve buried themselves in, the conference could be better than it was this season. Even so, Denver should settle in around the eight spot a year from now.

In a sense, the fun and innocence of the initial stages of a rebuild are over, and now the real work begins. There will be increased expectations and heightened pressures on this young core, but if you are the Denver Nuggets, you can’t stray from the process now, you can’t veer off course. Because that may mean you find yourself back where you started three or four years down the line.