Nuggets must decide on a clear direction this offseason

 

The Denver Nuggets should enter the final month of the 2016-17 season with one goal on mind: make the playoffs. With the Portland Trailblazers currently in possession of the eighth seed and appearing increasingly potent since their acquisition of former Nuggets’ malcontent Jusuf Nurkic, Denver will need to play near-flawless basketball throughout April in order to achieve this goal.

Yet given their mostly strong performance in March and more than manageable schedule over the upcoming week, as well as Nurkic’s recent season-ending injury, it’s not difficult to imagine the Nuggets challenging for the eight seed until the last game of the season on April 12.

Should the Nuggets make the playoffs, this season will be considered even more of a success than currently thought, especially considering Denver’s slow start in the early months and the ostensibly impossible odds of catching a team as hot as Portland. The playoffs would also inspire confidence in everyone associated with the Nuggets franchise and slather Denver with a glistening incentive for potential free agents this upcoming summer. (After all, top-tier free agents haven’t exactly salivated at the mouth to commit to Denver long term even when they were good, much less with a roster full of Generation Zs barely of drinking age.)

But what if the Nuggets don’t make the playoffs? How will coming so close to the postseason for the first time in four years only to fall short, thanks to a self-inflicted wound (Nurkic), affect the franchise moving forward? Only Denver’s front-office personnel knows the answers to these questions, but regardless of their ultimate conclusion, there are a few solutions everyone should agree on.

Direction

In an attempt to rebuild on the fly (and a fairly successful one at that) and re-sign holdovers from the Masai Ujiri regime Denver has hence been marooned somewhere between playoff contention and a top lottery selection for years. And though this strategy has been admirable from afar, it has also lacked any sense of definitive direction — not to mention costing the Nuggets better draft positioning over each of the past four seasons.

This year was supposed to be different. This was supposed to be the year Denver finally made a push for the playoffs, not despite their youth, but because of it. This was the year everything was supposed to click between the veterans and the underclassmen resulting in a symphonic harmony of tutelage, apprenticeship, and cohesion.

What the Nuggets forgot to account for, however, was the fact there weren’t enough jobs to go around for everyone and the ones that were available apparently didn’t exist for developmental purposes. Thus, rather than a symphony, the 2016-17 campaign was often overshadowed by a cacophony of age and position-related infighting that culminated with a once-promising centerpiece being shipped to Portland for pennies on the dollar as well as Wilson Chandler‘s frustration with how his role played out over the course of the season.

Many storylines will be gleaned from this year, both encouraging and disheartening, but if the past 70-some games have taught us anything it’s that, as Will Barton recently put it, the Nuggets need to decide who they want to be once and for all.

Denver can no longer afford to straddle the line between the vestiges of Ujiri’s past and the construct of Connelly’s future. They can no longer shoot for the playoffs and simultaneously rebuild through the draft. They can no longer invest their largest sums of money into players who wish not to be in Denver when capital should be funneled to the youth they must keep in Denver. Starting this summer Josh Kroenke and Tim Connelly need to decide who will be the face of the Denver Nuggets five years from now, and whoever isn’t on that list needs not wear a sky-blue uniform ever again.

The Lottery

If at any point in the coming weeks the Nuggets find themselves mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, or even remotely close (which might have already occurred considering the Nuggets’ recent play), it’s imperative Michael Malone rest his starters the remainder of the season to ensure better draft position in the lottery.

The sooner the better, obviously, but Denver also can’t pull the plug too soon in the event Portland miraculously collapses, which isn’t out of the question given the news Nurkic will miss the rest of the season due to injury. In all likelihood, Malone and the Nuggets will give it all they’ve got through at least the next week.

If the Blazers continue their hot play and add to their current five-game winning streak it’s absolutely vital Denver doesn’t exacerbate an already poor selection in the draft, especially given the uncertainty surrounding guys like Emmanuel Mudiay and Malik Beasley.

If the Nuggets play their youth early and often, Denver could realistically drop three spots in the lottery, not only securing a better draft pick but also increasing their odds at snatching a top-three selection in the process. This could potentially mean the difference between selecting yet another future role player or instead, a franchise pillar, and if lucky enough, a potential superstar.

Though the Nuggets have done an outstanding job of evaluating talent at nearly every stage of the draft, there’s simply no denying that, like cream, talent rises to the top when it comes to the lottery.

For example, in the 2015 NBA Draft, both Devin Booker and Myles Turner slipped outside the top-10, but only so far after that, going 11th and 13th respectively. And the year prior, the difference between taking Adreian Payne over Jusuf Nurkic, Dario Saric, Zach LaVine and T.J. Warren was only a matter of a single pick in the late lottery.

When it comes to the draft every pick counts, and the difference between an NBA All-Star and a Chinese Basketball Association All-Star often comes down to a single pick. If that selection boils down to Miles Bridges, Frank Ntilikina or Jonathan Isaac this year — all of whom would be perfect fits for the Nuggets — over Johnathan Motley or Luke Kennard, you better believe tanking is worth every last penny.

Backcourt

The Nuggets need for roster consolidation has been illuminated here at BSN Denver and virtually every other Nuggets publication across the Internet for years, yet rather than downsizing Connelly has expanded the Nuggets’ depth during his tenure. Denver’s superfluousness finally overflowed this past winter as a number of players hinted at their frustration in both subtle and highly transparent quotes to the media, leaving Nuggets fans with a somewhat sour aftertaste on the palate at season’s end.

To avoid a similar uprising next year the Nuggets would be wise to concentrate their assets by addressing their current backcourt logjam, especially with regards to the point guard position. As it stands the Nuggets have seven players registered as point guards, shooting guards or both — essentially half the roster.

Furthermore, all of those players are either locked down on their current deals or have contract options to remain in Denver for at least another year, meaning there’s a realistic chance Denver could commence training camp in summer 2017 with all their current guards in addition to whomever they add in the draft or free agency.

Lopsided roster structure aside, embarking on yet another 82-game journey with three players expecting minutes at both the point guard and shooting guard position is beyond illogical. As the old saying goes, those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it, and what the Nuggets absolutely cannot afford is yet another Jusuf Nurkic scenario.

Connelly, Kroenke and Malone need to ask themselves whether Emmanuel Mudiay or Jamal Murray is their point guard of the future. If they believe Mudiay is their quarterback then where does Murray fit into the shooting guard rotation with Gary Harris already locked in as starter?

And if they deem Murray in need of as much ball handling as possible, who’s their backup between Mudiay and Jameer Nelson? Moreover, where does this leave Will Barton? He surely expects time if retained over the summer. And if Barton is a priority, what’s to say for Malik Beasley?

Though separately delineated, all the above points of emphasis are incredibly cohesive. You cannot have one without affecting the other, and all three add up to one a single formulaic outcome: decisiveness. The Nuggets absolutely must commit to a defined pathway to success.

They need a plan, a goal, a set of principles to consistently abide and ample means to execute their mission. But most importantly, they must be clear about their ideology. Fans, and players, shouldn’t be left wondering who will start in late October and who will be there to support the starters from the bench. This should be plain as day.

And given Connelly’s generally impressive track record, if the Nuggets do have an explicit outline of where they want to go they should have no problem getting there just as long as everyone’s on the same page.