Nuggets Mailbag: Bradley Beal, Andre Iguodala and who will make a Pascal Siakam-like leap?

 

Have you managed to catch your breath?

First, it was Anthony Davis who maneuvered his way to Los Angeles. Then, once free agency hit, the floodgates opened. Kyrie Irving relocated to Brooklyn. Kevin Durant soon joined. Al Horford followed Irving’s exit but settled in Philadelphia. Then, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George teamed up with the Clippers, Kemba Walker chose the Celtics, and Jimmy Butler chose South Beach. Oh yeah. D’Angelo Russell is somehow on the Warriors.

Whew!

The heavy lifting in free agency is over and aside from a Bradley Beal or Kevin Love trade, we have a fairly good idea of how the league will look heading into next season.

There couldn’t be a better time for another Nuggets mailbag.

The Nuggets have done a great job this offseason by keeping the core together plus adding Jerami Grant, but I feel that we’re one or two trades away from making sure we make it to the Finals next season. Either we have to make a move for Beal or Iggy. How do you feel about that, and what do you think we would have to give up if we make a move for either player? – Dante Davenport

Adding Bradley Beal or Andre Iguodala to the current group that’s assembled in Denver without giving up a significant piece would undoubtedly push the Nuggets closer to a Finals appearance. But of course, that’s easier said than done. Washington has reportedly shown no interest in parting with Beal (a stance that could change depending on how receptive Beal is to the max extension that’s currently on the table from the Wizards), and Memphis’ initial asking price for Iguodala remains high. However, both of those situations could also change drastically once the regular season begins, and I’d be surprised if Iguodala is with the Grizzlies post-trade deadline. As for Beal, that’s a trickier situation. When it comes to the Nuggets, I’m not sure what their level of interest is in Beal but considering the caliber of player he is Denver should be intrigued. As for Iguodala, Denver would be interested in adding the former Finals MVP if he becomes available, but they’d also likely be competing with the Clippers, Lakers and others if he hits the buyout market.

If the Nuggets tried to add Iguodala via trade, a package centered around Will Barton and Juancho Hernangomez would work financially. But would the Grizzlies covet a future draft pick in such a deal? If that’s the case the Nuggets should still move forward. Assessing the Beal situation from 1,600 miles away, the Wizards would want significantly more than that. If I’m Washington and the Nuggets call about Beal, I’m asking for Jamal Murray. Then when Denver hangs up the phone, I call back and propose a package of Gary Harris and Malik Beasley.

Nikola Jokic led Denver in scoring last season (20.1 ppg) and Jamal Murray was second (18.2 ppg). Who will lead the Nuggets in scoring next year? – Chris Hansen

You can easily talk yourself into Murray being the pick here. He’s gradually upped his scoring average from 9.9 to 16.7 to 18.2 points per game over his three NBA seasons and fresh off a max contract extension, I predict Murray will continue to get more shots and touches in Denver’s offense. His usage percentage last season (24.1%) was good for second on the Nuggets behind Jokic (27.7%) and that should continue to climb as well. But you can’t discount Jokic’s consistent night-in-night-out production. While Jokic walks into 20 points on most nights without breaking a sweat, Murray always seems to have to work for his 20. Here’s another bold prediction for the loyal BSN Denver readers: both Jokic and Murray score at least 20 points per game next season, which would be the first time since 2007-08 (Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson) that two Nuggets players average 20 points per game in the same year.

What will define this Nuggets season? – Cory Wansley

Up until last season, the Michael Malone era was about establishing a culture and fostering internal growth, and that’s how success over his first three years on the job was measured. But that changed last season when the Nuggets captured 54 wins and blew every realistic expectation out of the water. Now, Denver’s season will be defined by its wins, losses and how far the Nuggets advance in the postseason. Denver will no longer be judged on how Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic and the rest of its young core are progressing, or the rock-solid culture that’s been established within the Nuggets’ locker room.

It’s about success now. There are heightened expectations already placed on Denver heading into next season, really for the first time in recent memory. If the Nuggets are able to meet them will be how the franchise’s season is looked upon. Now, what are realistic expectations for the Nuggets next year in my opinion? An appearance in the Western Conference Finals.

Do the Nuggets have any likely lineups that you foresee being a negative Net Rating lineup? – Jordan Scott

Last season, Denver’s most-used lineup that scored a negative Net Rating surprisingly featured four starters. In 199 minutes, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Torrey Craig, Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic posted a -5.9 Net Rating, which should point the Nuggets back in the direction of Will Barton when finalizing their starting small forward position for next season. Even with Barton’s struggles over the second half of last year, the starting five that Denver opened the season with (Murray, Harris, Barton, Millsap, Jokic) posted a 114.1 Offensive Rating, a 106.4 Defensive Rating, and a 7.8 Net Rating. When healthy, Barton is the best fit on the Nuggets’ roster at small forward and should be open the season as Denver’s starting three.

My best guess for a negative Net Rating lineup would feature at least three bench players and probably Michael Porter Jr., simply because he’s a rookie. For as much talent as rookies enter the league with, they still struggle. And while Porter’s future is bright as long as he stays healthy, he’ll have his fair share of ups and downs next season.

Do you think there is a realistic path for Juancho to break into a healthy rotation, or do you think it would only happen due to injuries? – Connor Ducey

The most realistic path to a rotation spot for Juancho Hernangomez is most likely due to an injury to another one of Denver’s forwards. I’m a big fan of Hernangomez, his skill-set and his fit alongside Nikola Jokic in Denver’s equal-opportunity offense. He’s a ball-mover and floor spacer, which are two high-ranking intangibles to have not only within the Nuggets’ scheme but as a secondary or tertiary player in the NBA. But the reality for Hernangomez, unless he really comes on in training camp and the preseason, is that he’s behind Will Barton and Torrey Craig at small forward and Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant at power forward.

Is there any Nuggets player that you’re expecting to make a Pascal Siakam-like leap next season? – Jon Martinez

Jamal Murray could be a candidate entering his fourth season but I’d say he’s already more on the radar now than Siakam was at this time last year. For my money, Jerami Grant or Malik Beasley would be the two most likely Nuggets to make that type of leap this season. Grant has been one of the more underrated players in the league in Oklahoma City over the last few seasons where he’s been overshadowed by Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Steven Adams, and Beasley showed last season that he’s just cracking the surface of his potential. It’s not hard imagining a world where Grant plays more total minutes than Paul Millsap next season, even though Millsap is firmly entrenched as the Nuggets’ starter. Beasley could probably average 20 points per game for 10-plus NBA teams right now and is simply a victim of his situation in Denver where he won’t supplant Gary Harris in the starting lineup. Still, his talent and production could force Michael Malone’s hand into giving the young two-guard more playing time. Both could have breakout seasons next year.

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