Nuggets look-backs: Will Barton III

Heading into the NBA’s restart on June 30, the DNVR Nuggets crew is looking back on the Denver Nuggets’ season, where each player left off, a target stat that every player should shoot for and one half-court heave or bold prediction for everyone on the Nuggets’ roster.

Where Will Barton III left off

Will Barton entered the 2019-20 season with an unfortunate stain on his resume after an abysmal playoff run. While still recovering from the first major surgery of his life, not just career, he posted a TS% of .43 and hit only 27% of his three-point shots while attempting almost four per game in the postseason. Thankfully, Barton rediscovered his confidence and form.

In the first 15 games of the season, ‘Thrill’ put up 15.4 ppg, 7.3 trb, and 3.5 ast on 45/43/74 shooting splits. He looked a lot like the multi-tooled and criminally underrated version of himself we saw in 2017-18, only with a newfound zeal for defense and a voracious appetite on the boards. His shooting cooled off as the season rolled on, but there’s still an argument to make that he was in the midst of his most impressive regular season to date.

Head coach Micahel Malone leans heavily on Barton and his versatility. Wearing multiple hats, he logged a career-high 33.1 minutes per game off the bench in 2017-18 and is back at that number this season as a member of the starting lineup. We’ve seen that workload wear him down in the past, and that dynamic might have been in play just before the hiatus — Barton’s three-point shooting dropped to 30% across six games in March — but he’s had time to rest now, and must be champing at the bit to set the record straight.

No one expects Barton to be named Finals MVP, except for maybe Barton, but the reality is the Nuggets were one inspired stretch of basketball away from a Western Conference Finals appearance. Would a healthy Barton have moved that needle? He’s got an excellent opportunity to prove he’s part of a championship-caliber roster as the Nuggets begin their quest for the asterisk.

Stat Line Before Hiatus: 15.1 ppg, 6.3 trb, 3.7 ast | 45.0/37.5/76.7

Target Stat

≥ 37.0 3pt%

In each of the last three seasons (including 58 games in 2019-20), Barton shot 37% or better from deep on at least 3.9 attempts per game. As mentioned above, that number dropped 10% in last year’s playoff run. The Nuggets will need to take and make three-pointers consistently to improve on that second-round exit. At times, it seems as though Barton is one of the few willing to let it fly. His potential success in that department would go a long way towards making life easier for Denver’s two young stars, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić.

The Nuggets surged to the top-2 of the Western Conference standings that season with top-end talent and great depth. That latter attribute did them no good in the playoffs as their star duo did virtually all of the heavy lifting. They’ll need substantial contributions elsewhere, and given Gary Harris’ overall struggles this season, Barton seems like the logical next candidate to step up.

I’m going to cheat here and highlight a second stat as well. In 2015-16, Barton posted a career-high 3.3 FTA. While that number has been sliding, the Nuggets don’t have a lot of players who get to the line. To be frank, they suffer from a significant lack of penetration, though Barton can and will act decisively when the offense clogs up. Will three free throw attempts per game decide a series? Probably not. But his “willingness” I’ll call it, might help to swing momentum, which might help to turn a quarter, which might help to swing a game. I think it matters, and his inability to contribute in that department stood out as much as his poor shooting did when Denver fell to Portland.

Half-Court Heave

40% or better from 3 on at least 3.5 attempts per game

If it isn’t clear, I’m a propagator of Barton’s talents. The strong seasons that bookend his nightmarish 2018-19 campaign are what truly reflects the caliber of player he is right now, and I think his impact on this team’s success is severely underrated. At times, we’ve seen Barton balk, or stutter, in the most consequential of moments, but we’ve also seen him deliver game-winners, clutch rebounds, and timely stretches of hot shooting when his team needs it most. He’s a polarizing player, viewed as either an x-factor or a loose cannon.

There’s a small army of capable role players that can contribute to regular-season success. Still, few can provide to the extent Barton has, and even fewer can move that proverbial needle in the postseason. Fully healthy now, it’s time to evaluate whether he’s one of the select few.

Barton is not a star player, but I believe he has more to offer than a typical role player, and I think he’s game for this challenge. I’m taking a heave — he shoots the lights out.

Check out the rest of our Nuggets look-backs:

Jamal Murray |