Nuggets look-backs: Gary Harris

Heading into the NBA’s restart on June 30, the DNVR Nuggets crew is looking back on the Denver Nuggets’ season, where each player left off, a target stat that every player should shoot for, and one half-court heave or bold prediction for everyone on the Nuggets’ roster.

Where Gary Harris left off

Nikola Jokić is the face of the Denver Nuggets, but in many ways, Gary Harris, the longest-tenured player on the roster, is the heart and soul of this era of Nuggets basketball. He busted out of his shell when Head Coach Michael Malone came to town, instilling confidence in Harris and offering him a longer rope. Harris’ points per game exploded in his sophomore season, jumping from 3.4 to 12.3, and it would keep climbing for a few seasons. Harris kept returning from his summer off with a new tool in his bag and a newfound level of confidence.

Each year, Harris showed up and shattered his newfound ceiling, prompting excitement in Nuggets-land, and this unfortunately aged piece from Chris Herring (I was with you, Chris). That’s why his stumble in 2018-19 and flat out collapse to start the 2019-20 season was so painful to watch.

Harris reported to training camp at a lighter weight than is typical for the former football standout. Harris is a specimen and adds muscle quickly, but after one too many lower-body injuries, he and the team took a different approach to the new campaign. It did not pay off. Whether we can trace this back to the weight loss or not, a newfound tentativeness permeated Harris’ game. A once decisive complementary scorer — sharp off-ball cutting, strong off-ball shooting, and a growing set of skills as a secondary ball-handler — Harris began to look like Charles Barkley on the playground post-alien encounter.

The cuts dried up, the shooting grew shaky, and perhaps most damningly, Harris’ production around and at the rim fell off a cliff. A dreadful floater supplanted surprising dunks, dominant shows of strength, and an underrated tough layup package. In 56 games, he put up 10.4 points on 42% from the field and 33% from deep — all three of those marks are below his career averages.

The season started well enough. In 5 October games, Harris averaged 12.6 points and hit 38% of his attempts from three with a USG% of 18.2. From there, his usage dropped, as did his production. Harris stumbled in November, caught himself in December, only to fall flat on his face in the coming months. He dropped to a single-digit scorer in January and February, shooting a horrific 20% from deep in the former, and 31% from the field overall the next month. He was in a full free-fall, with seemingly no one end in sight — but something clicked in March.

It’s a small sample size, but in 6 games, Harris’ ppg jumped back up to 13.0, while his field goal percentage shot up to 63%, and his three-point shooting skyrocketed back up to 64%. Just as the season hit a hiatus, Harris had found his rhythm, and now, we’re left wondering how much momentum he can carry over from those six games from nearly 140 days ago.

For those charting the rise and fall of Harris — it’s been a roller-coaster experience. Harris was named Indiana Mr. Basketball in 2012, attended Michigan State, and garnered attention in the draft before turning in a nightmare rookie campaign. Under Brian Shaw, Harris’ once bright future in the NBA looked bleak. Enter Malone, and enter a new Gary. His rise unlocked new elements of a budding dangerous offense. By 2017-18 he was averaging 17 points per game on 40% from three. He was Denver’s secret weapon. “The next Kawhi Leonard.” How far has he fallen from grace? In February of 2020, SB Nation’s Michael Pina labeled him the NBA’s “most disappointing player.” It’s been quite the ride.

So which Gary Harris took the trip to Disney World? Nuggets fans have their fingers crossed for the guy they saw in 2017-18, or at the very least, those six games in March. The brightest timeline in Denver includes Harris flashing his charming smile at the Nuggets faithful as they finally watch the parade march past.

Target Stat

In 2017-18, Harris took 34.7% of his shots from within 10 feet, where he shot a nice 69% from the field, per NBA.com’s Shots Dashboard. In 2019-20, he relied more heavily on such shot types but only hit 50% of them. Looking at his shot chart from NBA.com, you can see he shot about 6% below league average around the rim. Back that out towards the free-throw line, or what I’m unaffectionately dubbing “the floater zone,” and you’ll see an even more significant disparity.

Much has been made about Harris’ three-point shooting struggles this season, and rightfully so. Still, you’ll notice he shot the deep ball quite well from the corners, where he should be receiving the lion’s share of his playoff attempts in a potent half-court offense. I think the effectiveness around the rim matters most. When on the fastbreak, receiving end of a Jok-sling, or in the rare event he turns the corner decisively and leaves his defender in the dust, he must finish with authority inside. Harris is too strong, athletic, and capable not to make the defense pay.

Halfcourt Heave

Is it too safe to heave for 38% from three? That’s roughly a 5% jump from his regular season and a 3% jump from last summer’s playoff run. Harris shot the lights out in March, and while he’ll have to rediscover that rhythm all over again, “I’ve got a feeling,” as Harrison Wind might say, that he’s ready to step up.