Nuggets-Lakers Preview: X-factors, key matchups, series predictions and more

The resilient Denver Nuggets are no accident.

This team was constructed to trudge forward in the face of nearly insurmountable odds — like a 3-1 series deficit — and come out on the other side in one piece. Just look at the Nuggets’ roster.

The Nuggets’ 10-man regular-season rotation included six players who were either second-round picks or went undrafted out of college in Nikola Jokic, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Will Barton, Torrey Craig, Monte Morris. Barton, due to injury, is the only one of those six not in Denver’s playoff rotation. Fourteenth overall pick Michael Porter Jr. was counted out due to his injury history. Jamal Murray was the No. 7 overall pick but plays with a chip on his shoulder the size of Canada. Michael Malone and Tim Connelly had their doubters when they both arrived in Denver.

These Denver Nuggets eat adversity for breakfast, lunch and dinner. These Nuggets have been blocking out the noise throughout their entire basketball careers. Of course it’s this group that’s the only team in NBA history to come back from two consecutive 3-1 series deficits in the playoffs.

Next up, the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets weren’t intimidated by the Clippers’ star power, and they won’t back down from the Lakers’ either. The three pre-hiatus matchups between Denver and Los Angeles were decided by an average of nine points and one went to overtime. The Nuggets know they can play with LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

You have to trust Denver in close games too. In clutch situations (the last five minutes of games when the margin is five points or less,) Jokic and Murray are playoff’s two-most efficient scorers.

Let’s see what the Nuggets have in store for an encore.

Series History

Dec. 3: Lakers 105 Nuggets 96 (Davis: 25 points, 10 rebounds | James: 25 points, 6 rebounds, 9 assists | Howard: 10 points, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks | Murray: 22 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists | Millsap: 21 points, 8 rebounds | Jokic: 13 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists)

Dec. 22: Nuggets 128 Lakers 104 (Jokic: 18 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists | Barton: 14 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists | Harris: 19 points, 5 rebounds, 4 steals | Millsap: 21 points | Davis: 32 points, 11 rebounds, 4 blocks | Kuzma: 16 points, 4 rebounds)

*LeBron James did not play

Feb. 12: Lakers 120 Nuggets: 116 (James: 32 points, 12 rebounds, 14 assists | Davis: 33 points, 10 rebounds, Caruso: 10 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists | Murray: 32 points, 10 rebounds | Jokic: 22 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists | Grant: 15 points, 7 rebounds)

*Will Barton did not play

Aug 10 (Seeding Game): Lakers 124 Nuggets 121 (James: 29 points, 12 rebounds | Davis: 27 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists | Kuzma: 25 points, 6 rebounds | Dozier: 18 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists | Murray: 14 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists | Porter: 15 points, 4 rebounds)

*Nuggets starters didn’t eclipse 30 minutes

Who will be the Nuggets’ X-factor?

Harrison: Jerami Grant

After his defensive showing on Kawhi Leonard in the Clippers series, Grant has established himself as the Nuggets’ third-most important player in my mind. Against the Lakers, his assignment won’t get any easier. Grant will open the Western Conference Finals guarding LeBron James and I think at times Anthony Davis. He’ll also need to shoot closer to the 41% from three he shot against the Jazz, rather than the 26% he hit from deep vs. the Clippers to help crack the Lakers defense, which ranks third in the playoffs. When they’re not on the ball, Grant, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Denver’s backside defense must have a great series rotating over to help on the James-Davis pick-and-roll too.

Vogt: Michael Porter Jr.

We might already know what we’re getting from Grant in this round. It could look a lot like the previous one — an admirable workload on defense, and suboptimal hit rate on a handful of wide-open threes per game. MPJ, of course, has to the ability to swing games with his scoring off the bench, and if he’s playing well enough that Malone decides to close with him, there’s a chance he and Grant at the three and four make Jokić’s life easier when it matters most. In theory, at least, that pairing would provide better spacing than Grant/Millsap.

There’s also the entirely plausible scenario of him being played right off the floor. LeBron James can mismatch hunt with the very best of them, and the rookie will have a target on his back.

Adam Mares: Jerami Grant

Grant has elevated his defensive profile throughout these playoffs, first by taking on the unenviable task of guarding Donovan Mitchell in the first round series and then by following that up by making Kawhi Leonard look less than stellar down the stretch of the second round series. As a reward he will be tasked with slowing LeBron James. I’m not sure that he (or anyone other than father time) is capable of pulling that off but Denver’s hope of advancing to the NBA finals begins with Grant having a positive impact on LeBron.

Oh, on top of that, he’s also got to knock down shots. A repeat 25.7% from behind the arc won’t cut it against the Lakers.

D-Line: Michael Porter Jr.

The Nuggets are going to need a third scoring option. MPJ has shown us a divine ability to score inside of the bubble but hasn’t yet had a signature night in the playoffs. If the Lakers’ length means that they won’t send a hard double at Jokic, there’s a good chance that both MPJ and Jamal Murray are bottled up a little more and a third option will need to arise to keep the defense on its heels. We know that Porter has this in him. The question is if his breakout playoff performance comes during his rookie year.

What matchup must the Nuggets win?

Harrison: Nikola Jokic vs. the Lakers front court

Anthony Davis remains the one big man that Jokic hasn’t mastered. In three regular season matchups against Davis (not counting the seeding game), Jokic averaged 17.6 points on 47% shooting from the field, 7.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. He’ll need to post better numbers than that for the Nuggets to win this series.

The Lakers will likely go back to centers JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard, who played less than 50 minutes combined against the Rockets, and both figure to log heavy minutes against Jokic in order to keep Davis out of foul trouble. They can use their length against Jokic too. When Davis has played the Nuggets this season, he’s dominated. Davis averaged 30 points on 53% shooting and 10.3 rebounds in those same three matchups against Denver. Do the Nuggets pack the paint against Davis and make the Lakers beat them from three? Los Angeles is the sixth-worst three-point shooting team in the playoffs (36%) but that’s all because of the first round. The Lakers shot a second-round best 38% from distance in their series against the Rockets.

While this series is a tougher matchup for Jokic, it will be easier sledding for Jamal Murray. The Lakers boast capable perimeter defenders like Danny Green and Alex Caruso but don’t have a Kawhi Leonard or Paul George.

Vogt: Jokic vs. Davis

The Nuggets don’t have a chance if Jokić doesn’t just outplay AD but also find a way to navigate Davis’ presence alongside the Lakers’ actual center. There’s a difference between a straight double and whatever late help Jokić will face in the paint, combined with the difficulty of rebounding with two true bigs out there.

To this point, Jokić has inflicted a great deal of damage from the outside. He mitigated Rudy Gobert’s defensive impact by drawing him away from the paint, subsequently making life easier for Jamal Murray when knifing his way to the rim. That will be necessary again for Murray to find a way to damage inside as he has for most of the postseason. Of course, Jokić’s deep shot is far more than a decoy. He’s shooting 44% from deep on six attempts per contest through 14 games. As outlined by Wind, Jokić does struggle with this matchup — a rare sight. Scoring inside won’t be easy.

On the other end of the floor, Jokić has to find a way to stay out of foul trouble. His defense improves in the clutch, but he keeps his hands to himself and feet down when in foul trouble.

Allow me to be frank: the Lakers are going to shoot a lot of free throws.

Mares: The transition battle

Wind has the most important one but I’ll shed some light on a secondary battleground and that is the transition battle. The Nuggets are not a fast break team so winning this battle is more about preventing the Lakers from getting out on the break than it is about the Nuggets getting into a run-and-gun battle.

The Lakers ranked 2nd in transition points in the regular season and have been in that same spot throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs. Their halfcourt offense is solid but Denver can hang with them if the game gets slowed down and the Lakers are forced to play without open court offense. Lose the transition battle, and the Nuggets are cooked.

D-Line: The three-point battle

The Nuggets will probably have some difficulty scoring in the paint during this series, which will put more importance on their mid-range and three-point shooting. Denver’s going to need to knock these shots down to counter what the Lakers do best. The Nuggets need to maintain an advantage from behind the three-point line.

Predict the Stat Line

Nikola Jokic 

Harrison: 25.5 points, 12 rebounds, 6.5 assists | 48 FG%, 39 3P%

Jokic has been deadly in the pick-and-pop in these playoffs and he’ll have to again be efficient from the perimeter and the midrange against the Lakers’ length. He’s shooting 48% on jump shots in the postseason (up from 43% in the regular season). His three-point percentage has jumped from 31% to 44% in the playoffs too.

Vogt: 24.5 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists | 48 FG%, 40 3P%

Mares: 26.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, 5.4 assists assists | 51.5% FG, 48.5% 3FG

Those are the exact numbers that he put up against Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz. I suspect that similar numbers are in order against a tough Lakers interiors. Okay, maybe that 3FG% might be a pinch high.

D-Line: 26 pts, 10 rebounds, 9 assists | 52%FG 44%3

Jamal Murray

Harrison: 26 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6 assists | 45 FG%, 40 3P%

Playing against less length than he had to deal with in the Clippers series, we’re getting at least one 40-point game from Murray against the Clippers. Book it.

Vogt: 27 points, 5 rebounds 6 assists | 48 FG%, 42 3P%

Mares: 22.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.4 assists | 44.7% FG, 43.8 3FG

Those are the exact numbers that he put up against the Clippers. I suspect that similar numbers are in order against the Lakers.

D-Line: 29 points, 4 rebounds 7 assists | 45%FG 46% 3pt

I think Murray will have a lot available to him in this series. All he has to do is knock down his open looks. His confidence is sky high.

Michael Porter Jr.

Harrison: 9.5 points, 5.5 rebounds | 48 FG%, 37 3P%

Something feels right about Michael Porter Jr. and Kyle Kuzma guarding each other in this series. I don’t know what it is, but it just feels right. Porter has improved defensively as the playoffs has gone on, but I’m a little worried about the Lakers and LeBron hunting him out in the pick-and-roll.

Vogt: 10 points, 6.5 rebounds | 47FG% 37 3P%

I’ve been way too optimistic in my MPJ projections – time to adjust.

Mares: 9 points, 8 rebounds | 49% FG, 44% 3FG

I could see Porter Jr. having a few good games in this series but he will probably be too big of a liability defensively to get extended minutes. LeBron will hunt for him on the defensive end and I’m not sure that Porter Jr. is prepared for it.

D-Line: 16 points, 7 rebounds | 44% FG, 38% 3P%

Time for Porter to shine.

Series Prediction

Harrison: Nuggets in 7

Are the Nuggets heavy underdogs in this series? Yes. Were the Lakers a better team in the regular season than Denver? Yes. But this isn’t the same Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray from the regular season. This is the bubble and these are the never-say-die Nuggets. I can’t doubt this team now.

Vogt: Nuggets in 7

Murray and Jokić are as good as any duo in the league except for perhaps this one. They’ll have to rise to the occasion and transcend their already high level of play. I think they will.

Murray is a different player than the one we saw in the regular season. I believe Jokić has spent a lot of time thinking about this matchup, and how to best Davis finally. The Lakers might kick in the door and run them off the floor, but if Denver can weather an early storm, I like their chances the longer the series goes. The Nuggets have nothing to lose and no reason to doubt themselves.

Why not?

Mares: Lakers in 6.

I’m leaning slightly closer to Lakers in 5 than I’d like to admit. Anthony Davis is the last big man for Nikola Jokic to solve. If this were AD’s team, I’d like Jokic’s chances. But playing Davis evenly or even gaining a slight edge in the battle of the bigs still leaves the Nuggets with a LeBron James problem. This is a series in which the Lakers can probably match the Nuggets strength for strength and while still having the best player of a generation as the kicker.

It’s not an impossible task. But it is David vs. Goliath. Smart money is on Goliath. Let’s find out if the young, tough, up-and-coming Nuggets are ready for the challenge.

D-Line: Nuggets in 6.

I realize that to many this take seems hot. But fundamentally, I believe very firmly that the Nuggets have the early edge against the Lakers since they’re coming off of a series win that saw them grow not only stronger but closer. The Nuggets are extremely battle-tested at this point and truly fear no opponent.

The Lakers are a team that is built much in the same way that the Clippers were. LeBron forced a full upheaval of the team in the offseason to get Anthony Davis onto his squad, much in the same way that Kawhi disrupted the Clippers to get Paul George. The result will have the same warts as the other Staples Center team. Should the Lakers find themselves in a pressured situation, I do not believe they know enough about one another to overcome that adversity.

This could become a showcase for the newly resurrected and immortal king to strike down this team of plucky upstarts. But just like everything in this world, nothing is forever.