Nuggets-Heat: Series predictions and X-factors in the NBA Finals

This is what we’ve been waiting for.

The Nuggets have been running in place since Jamal Murray tore his ACL in April of 2021. They’ve been stalled out for the last two seasons. But this is where we always thought they could be. This is a place that we always imagined the Nuggets could get to. And now they’re here.

Game 1 of the NBA Finals is tonight. In Denver. It still doesn’t feel real and probably won’t until Nikola Jokic wins the jump ball at around 6:30 pm MT. So soak it all in. Cherish this moment. Because this is special.

This is the greatest Nuggets team in franchise history led by the best player to ever wear a Nuggets uniform. He’s part of an all-world starting five that’s led Denver to the best offensive rating of any Finals team in NBA playoff history and is coached by someone who’s carving out his own place in Nuggets lore and has been absolutely integral to this era of Mile High City basketball.

This is special.

Standing in the way of Denver’s first NBA Championship is the Miami Heat, who resemble the Nuggets in a lot of ways. The Heat, like the Nuggets, are a real team. They have chemistry, culture, and synergy. The Heat, like the Nuggets, are underdogs at heart and have been these entire playoffs. They excel in that role. Miami plays physical, strong, confident, and determined. The Heat will be the toughest team that Denver has faced in these playoffs. They also play together. Just like the Nuggets, they have each other’s backs.

“I think these last two teams remaining have the most chemistry within each other,” Jamal Murray said.

It’s why the Nuggets will have to play their best basketball of the playoffs to capture this series. The Heat won’t split at the seams and give in like some of Denver’s other playoff opponents this postseason. They won’t play soft. They’ll keep battling and battling and battling.

“This is going to be the biggest challenge of our lives,” said Michael Malone.

The Nuggets will be up for it. They’ve answered every challenge so far in these playoffs. They’ve stared adversity in the face and calmly overcome it every time. Denver is rested, ready, and locked in.

It feels like the Nuggets have been on a mission all playoffs. Now, it’s time to finish the job.

𝗗𝗡𝗩𝗥 𝗦𝗣📷𝗧𝗟𝗜𝗚𝗛𝗧 – NBA FINALS Media Day

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DNVR Nuggets’ X-factors

Adam Mares: Aaron Gordon

He’s been phenomenal defensively all season and I expect that trend to continue against the Miami Heat and Jimmy Butler. Butler is the exact type of player that Gordon defends best since Gordon has the size and strength to absorb contact and contest shots in the paint. Offensively, Gordon should have a major size advantage against the Heat’s preferred small ball lineups. If he dominates the boards and puts pressure on the paint off cuts then Denver should win this series and bring home the Larry OB. – Mares

Harrison Wind: Aaron Gordon

Gordon can cement his Nuggets legacy with a strong series. He’s already guarded Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James in these playoffs. Next up is Jimmy Butler, who might actually be Gordon’s best matchup of the four. On offense, Gordon should be able to use his size and strength to overpower the Heat’s smaller defenders. He should draw a ton of fouls and get to the line way more than he did in the previous series. – Wind

Brendan Vogt: Bruce Brown

Denver has the best starting five in basketball. We can count on the starters to at least hold serve in their minutes. If you’re looking for a weakness in the Nuggets, start with the bench. The bench minutes start with Brown, and he’s been fantastic in the playoffs so far. – Vogt

Dev Johnson: Michael Porter Jr.

He’s shooting the ball at a high clip and with the Heat lacking the size to guard the Nuggets straight up, we will see some zone. That’s where MPJ can feast. Also, expect his length and progression on defense to continue to shine bright like a diamond. Expect one HUGE Yeah Mike game. – Dev

Eric Wedum (D-Line): Aaron Gordon

With so much attention rightfully paid to the WCF MVP, Nikola Jokic, a guy that could benefit greatly will be his frontcourt counterpart. Gordon and Jokic will present a physical problem for the Heat that will not be easy to just scheme away. Playing in the dunker spot, Gordon should be the beneficiary of some easy clean-up work and will also be able to add a lot on the defensive side of the ball, which has been his calling card all postseason. – D-Line

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Series Predictions

Adam: Nuggets in 5

Wind: Nuggets in 4

Vogt: Nuggets in 5

Dev: Nuggets in 5

D-Line: Nuggets in 5