Nuggets free agency: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's future, will Denver add another point guard?

Paul George? Klay Thompson?

Days before free agency, two substantial reports surfaced linking the Nuggets to two of the biggest names that could change teams this offseason.

Did the Nuggets have conversations about trading for George or finding a way to clear the necessary salary cap space to sign Thompson? Yes, I’m sure they did. You have to have those types of talks if those names come up. But I don’t think they lasted long. They were brief and didn’t lead anywhere.

I never got the sense that George or Thompson were realistic options for Denver despite the soon-to-be former Warriors sharpshooter getting spotted at Boulder’s boujee St. Julien hotel over the weekend. I’m betting he was in town for a wedding.

In the end, neither name seemed that real.

I don’t expect fireworks like George or Thompson for the Nuggets in free agency, which begins Sunday at 4 pm MT, but I do expect Denver to make a couple of meaningful additions to the roster. And I think they’ll be in the mold of player that Nuggets Nation has been clamoring for: Veteran and rotation-caliber.

I think the player or players GM Calvin Booth signs will be difference-makers next season.

That’s not including DeAndre Jordan, who will be returning to the Nuggets on a veteran’s minimum contract, although Jordan does make a difference behind the scenes. Denver values his leadership and locker room presence. Last week, Booth labeled him the Nuggets’ Udonis Haslem. I feel like that’s a very appropriate comparison for what Jordan brings to this team.

That doesn’t include Vlatko Cancar either. The expectation is that Cancar will also return to Denver on a minimum contract after his summer stint with the Slovenian national team.

The Nuggets’ other current free agents include Justin Holiday and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Denver isn’t expected to re-sign Holiday once free agency begins, I’m told.

Caldwell-Pope? We’ll see.

Here’s how the Nuggets’ roster looks right now. I think 13 spots are locked in, including Jordan and Cancar. Two roster spots are open.

Starters (4): Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon

Bench: (5): Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, DaRon Holmes, Zeke Nnaji

Reserves (4): DeAndre Jordan, Vlatko Cancar, Hunter Tyson, Jalen Pickett

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Caldwell-Pope’s market could very well dry up and he could return to Denver on a cheaper deal than the Nuggets thought they could get him at. But the sense I get is that the shooting guard is likely signing elsewhere in free agency. I think his potential departure comes down to several factors.

First, the Nuggets can offer Caldwell-Pope as much money as they want to. Whatever offers that Caldwell-Pope draws in free agency, the Nuggets can match or exceed them. Technically, they could offer Caldwell-Pope a max contract. Of course, they won’t and shouldn’t. Caldwell-Pope would also still have to accept the deal Denver offers.

If the Nuggets do re-sign Caldwell-Pope, their team salary will be so high that they’ll enter the NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement’s brand new second luxury tax apron, which some franchises across the league are treating like a “hard cap” this offseason. Teams simply don’t want to go into it due to the restrictions that it carries.

In the second apron, you must operate under severe restrictions. You can only sign players to minimum contracts in free agency, you can’t aggregate two or more player salaries in trades, you can’t send out cash in trades, you can’t acquire a player using a traded player exception. There are more too.

This is via Keith Smith:

In the second apron, you’re pretty much tied to the roster you have right now. But if the Nuggets re-signed Caldwell-Pope, I think they’d still be in a pretty good spot. They wouldn’t have any maneuverability throughout the season if injuries hit, but Denver would carry a championship-level roster into the year.

My feeling is that the Nuggets want flexibility during this year’s free agency (to add depth) and going forward into the season. Also, they have a ton of faith in Christian Braun to step into the starting lineup and replicate a lot of what Caldwell-Pope gave them…on the defensive end of the floor.

Caldwell-Pope was an All-Defense-level defender during the regular season, but his defensive impact fell off during the playoffs and he got exposed while guarding Anthony Edwards in the Nuggets’ Round 2 loss to the Timberwolves. Braun, who’s slightly taller and also stronger than Pope, fared much better against the physical Edwards. I think the Nuggets are looking closely at that series loss when evaluating their roster this summer.

Caldwell-Pope is also 31 with a ton of miles and minutes on his body. He has played 67+ games in all 11 of his NBA seasons. He has played 77, 76, and 76 games over the last three years. Last season, he played through several minor injuries that added up as the year wore on.

The Nuggets could Bill Belichick the Caldwell-Pope situation this summer, cut bait, and move on from him before he enters his decline.

All of that being said, Caldwell-Pope is a better player than Braun right now. He’s a much better fit in the starting lineup. He’s just at a different level. As a shooter, he’s elite. Braun is still shaky beyond the 3-point line. I’d be worried about the Nuggets’ offense and spacing next season with Braun playing so many more minutes.

The 2,400 minutes that Caldwell-Pope logged in the regular season last year is a massive amount to replace. I think the Nuggets can still win a championship without Caldwell-Pope, but their title odds will drop.

Re-signing Caldwell-Pope vs. him walking could define Booth’s tenure at the Nuggets’ helm based on how Denver fares next season.

The two other roster spots

I expect the Nuggets to go out and sign at least one — and potentially two — veteran rotation players to complete their 15-man roster. I think it will be one ball handler and one big man. That’s where the Nuggets’ biggest needs are.

At the point guard position, the Nuggets only have Jalen Pickett under contract behind starter Jamal Murray after salary dumping Reggie Jackson to the Hornets in a trade last week. There was a lot of consternation within the Nuggets about how much Michael Malone played Jackson and deployed him for 82 games last season despite his poor play. My read is that Denver just wanted to rid itself of that situation.

Since Malone kept Pickett tied to the bench even when injuries hit the Nuggets’ backcourt and showed little desire to play him, I think Denver looks to add a veteran at that position to provide depth and be the default backup point guard next season. I think it’s going to be a name that gets people excited too.

In the frontcourt, Denver just traded up to draft big man DaRon Holmes and also return Jokic, Gordon, Nnaji, Jordan, and likely Cancar. The Nuggets could enter the season with a bit of an unbalanced, frontcourt-heavy roster — I still think they want to trade Nnaji — but the general feeling around the team is they still need a steady veteran presence at backup center to effectively spell Jokic more throughout the season.

Expect the Nuggets to sign a backup center in the coming days. I predict he’ll be in Denver’s regular rotation as well.