Nuggets Final Report Card: Paul Millsap proved his worth this season — but is his future in Denver?

Ten days after the Denver Nuggets’ season ended in a Game 7 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, Michael Malone was asked to name the one factor that allowed his team to jump from ninth in the Western Conference to second in just one season.

He immediately credited his defense and how even though Denver returned 78% of its rotation from last season, the Nuggets were able to vault from a bottom-10 defensive team to one that was tied for the 9th-most efficient defense in the league this season.

“If I really had to step back and say what allowed us to go from winning 46 and being out (of the playoffs) to winning 54 and being in. I would say it was the improvement on the defensive end of the floor,” Malone said. “We were still a top-10 offense. Right now in the playoffs, we have the second most efficient offense in the playoffs even though we’re done playing. The improvement on defense, when you go from 30th in 3-point defense to first, that is a remarkable improvement.”

Malone was right. Denver was still a better than league average offense but didn’t enjoy the same consistency on that end of the floor this season that it did a year ago thanks to a brutal run of injuries that saw all of its starters except for Nikola Jokic miss at least a chunk of games. But defensively the Nuggets held firm. At times Denver fielded a patchwork rotation that gutted out one win after another to the approval of their principled coach who’s always believed deep down that defense was the key to the Nuggets’ next step even though offense had always come more easily to his group.

Paul Millsap’s presence was the biggest reason for Denver’s defensive surge this year. Millsap only appeared in 38 games in his first season in a Nuggets uniform and Denver’s defense couldn’t reap the reward of the four-time All-Star’s prowess, fielding a bottom-10 defense for the third-straight season. This year was different. Millsap logged 70 games, the most he played since 2016 and Denver’s defense improved by nearly three points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor, a similar differential to how much better the Nuggets’ defense was with Millsap playing in 2018.

It’s why the Nuggets keeping Millsap — who has a $30 million team option that Denver has until June 29 to decide on — is integral to their success next season. The Nuggets don’t have anyone on its roster capable of replacing his defensive presence and the hopes of Denver persuading one of the top-tier combo forwards to sign on the dotted line this summer doesn’t seem incredibly likely. The tier 2 and 3 power forwards available like Julius Randle, Nikola Mirotic, Marcus Morris, Thaddeus Young and Al-Farouq Aminu wouldn’t be able to replicate Millsap’s two-way play either.

Denver can bring Millsap back on the $30 million figure or decline the option, which would make the 34-year-old an unrestricted free agent, but still re-sign the forward to a multi-year deal at a lower dollar amount. That pathway would allow the Nuggets some more financial flexibility this summer. Either way, the team option is the first action item the Nuggets’ front office will have to decide on this summer.

Assuming the Nuggets bring back everyone who’s under contract for next season, move on Trey Lyles and don’t re-sign free agents-to-be Isaiah Thomas and Tyler Lydon, here’s what Denver’s salary cap situation would look like with and without Millsap on a $30 million deal and if he played on a $15 million contract next season.

Twenty four hours after the Nuggets’ season ended, Millsap, with a black garbage bag in his right hand didn’t talk like a player that was looking for a new home this summer, and a week later Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly wasn’t acting like an executive set to launch a search for a new starting power forward either.

“Our goal and Paul’s goal is to have him back with us. And I think when both people have the same goal and they both have a lot of respect for each other, I’m pretty confident that will happen,” Connelly said. “I’m having dinner with Paul very soon and he’s got a fantastic agent, DeAngelo, and we’ll catch up. And we both want the same thing and we’ll figure out the best way for the organization and Paul to make sure that’s achieved. So I fully expect Paul to be back in a Nuggets uniform.”

The feeling around the organization all season was exactly what Connelly laid out in his remarks: both the Nuggets and Millsap believe the power forward will be back in Denver next season one way or another.

Millsap’s points per game were down this season from 14.6 in 2017-18 to 12.6 this season, but his minutes (30.1 to 27.1) and field goal attempts (11.4 to 9.5) were down too. Millsap responded by recording his most-efficient offensive season in eight years and shot his highest percentage from the field (48.4%) since 2013. He also registered his best conversion rate from three (36.5%) and True Shooting Percentage (57%) since 2011.

“I felt that I had a really good year,” Millsap said while noting that he thinks he grew as a leader this season.

What’s left for Millsap to accomplish in his career? A championship, of course. The 13-year pro joked at his exit interview that his best chance to win a title would be in Golden State, but he doesn’t want to ring chase for the rest of his NBA life. Getting to the mountain top with this group in Denver would carry significantly more meaning.

“I’ve been a guy who’s been counted out over the years, undersized four-man, and I’ve always been doubted,” Millsap said. “That’s what makes this year so special. This team was doubted throughout the whole year. We couldn’t do this, we couldn’t do that, we’re not good enough. we’re too young, blah blah blah. We proved everybody wrong.

“For me, it’s not really about trying to prove anybody wrong but to prove to myself that I can do it my way and still win and I can do it with whoever I want to do it with. It ain’t got to be the Golden State Warriors or the Lakers. I can help a young talented team reach that goal.”

Final Report Card Grade: A