Nuggets draft picks hang in balance as they face Thunder for final time

As if it weren’t a tall enough order to take on an Oklahoma City Thunder team looking to prepare for a run through the Western Conference playoffs, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Co. will be licking their wounds after allowing James Harden (41 points) to key a Rockets come-from-behind, 118-110 win in Houston on Sunday night.

The Thunder have dominated the Nuggets all season long, winning all three previous match ups by an average of 13.3 points each time. Barring any end-of-season lineup scratches by Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan, this will be a tough game for the Nuggets to get back into the win column after back-to-back disappointing losses to the injury riddled New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings.

Consistently Consistent

The Thunder have remarkably healthy after a 2014-15 season that saw their big three all miss significant time due to injury. Russell Westbrook played in just 67 games and probably should have missed more considering he dented his face, Serge Ibaka managed only 64 games and Kevin Durant was limited to just 27 games on the season thanks to a lingering foot injury. The Thunder finished with just a 45-37 record and head coach Scott Brooks was shown the door in the offseason.

The 2015-16 season couldn’t be going much differently as all five of the Thunder’s preferred starting lineup (Westbrook, Andre Roberson, Ibaka, Durant and Steven Adams) have a chance to suit up and start in at least 70 games. Only four other players on the roster have broken into the starting lineup at all this season, and this consistency, along with Durant’s full recovery from last season’s broken foot, have led to a 53-24 record, good for third in the Western Conference and only behind the historically good Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs. This all with a rookie head coach, making the jump straight from college. something that rarely leads to NBA success.

Tough Road Ahead

While the Sacramento Kings starting lineup didn’t look anything like the ones that the Nuggets had seen earlier in the season (no Rondo, no Boogie), the result was the same as Sacramento completed a season sweep of the Nuggets on Saturday night. The schedule doesn’t get any easier for Denver as they host the Thunder, followed by the San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz, teams against which, the Nuggets are a resounding 0-9 on the season, followed by the season finale in Portland against the surprising Trail Blazers. It’s a good thing the Nuggets managed their first winning month of the season in March (9-7) because there’s no way they’ll find that kind of success in April.

Draft Watch

There are four interesting things to watch for in the Western Conference standings as the season comes to a close as they pertain to Denver’s potential selections in June’s NBA Draft:

Nuggets/Knicks Picks – As the Nuggets own the right to swap picks with the New York Knicks (the worse of the two goes to the Toronto Raptors), they essentially own the ping pong balls for both teams when it comes to May’s NBA Draft Lottery. After Sunday night’s games (there are no NBA games on Monday due to the NCAA Championship), there are six teams with the potential to end up between picks 6-11. The Nuggets currently sit in the 9th position and the Knicks at 7th, thanks to the folks at tankathon.com for organizing things in the most interesting way possible for those of us with nothing else to root for at this point in the season.

Due to the difficulty of the Nuggets remaining schedule and ease of the Pelicans’, however, FiveThirtyEight currently projects that the Nuggets, Kings, Knicks and Pelicans will all finish the season with 33 wins and in a four-way tie for the 6-9 picks in the draft. meaning each team would have a 3.775-percent chance at the 1st pick and a 13.15-percent chance at a top 3 pick. Those percentages could be doubled for Denver as they own the rights to the Knicks ping pong balls as well  (7.6-percent for 1st and 13.3-percent for top 3). On the other hand, if the Nuggets and Knicks end up in the six and seven spots in the tankathon standings, Denver will have a 10.6-percent chance at the top pick and a 36.5-percent chance at a top 3 pick, so much is still at stake.

Portland Pick – The Blazers appear to be a lock to make the playoffs, meaning their pick will surprisingly be heading the Nuggets’ way in this year’s draft. This is a good thing considering Portland was expected to miss the playoffs, and they pick would have eventually turned into a couple of second-rounders if it wasn’t conveyed in 2016 or 2017. Needless to say, a 17th pick (based on current standings) is a whole lot better than two second-rounders regardless of the quality of a given draft.

Houston Pick – Houston is on the cusp of the playoffs and whether they make it or not goes a long way towards determining the value of the Nuggets upcoming draft. It would mean a lot to Denver to get the pick from Houston this season as it turns into Portland’s second-rounder (yes, this is confusing) next year if it doesn’t convey in 2016.

Memphis Pick – For a long time it appeared this pick had no chance of ending up in the Nuggets’ hands this year, but thanks to a six-game losing streak, Memphis is dropping to the bottom of the Western Conference rankings. The pick is protected for 1-5 and 15-30 in 2016, 1-5 in 2017 and 2018 and unprotected in 2019. It’s hard to gauge the Grizzlies future success as they rely on a couple of aging veterans in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, so it might be worth hoping for the Grizz to make the playoffs this year as the pick could be much more valuable if the team falls of significantly in the next couple years.

Colorado Connections

• Randy Foye – The former Nugget and consummate professional was traded to the Thunder at the deadline for D.J. Augustin. His percentages have largely remained the same despite the change of scenery as he continues to shoot about 35 percent from the field and 30 percent from beyond the arc in about 20 minutes per game.
• Andre Roberson – In his third season in the league, the University of Colorado alum has started 65 games for the Thunder this season, matching last year’s total while increasing his field goal, three-point and free-throw percentages from his previous campaign.
• Josh Heustis – He’s only played in two games for the Thunder this season, but Oklahoma City’s 2015 first round draft pick is the biological son of former University of Colorado basketball player Poncho Hodges. Heustis was adopted at birth, but the Stanford alum remained in contact with his biological parents throughout his life.