Nikola Jokic is a mid-range assassin with an offensive ceiling that keeps climbing

 

It’s starting to become quite apparent that the Denver Nuggets have found a foundational pillar for the franchise in Nikola Jokic. He has transformed the Nuggets with his brilliant passing and is suddenly showing signs of a future ceiling as a primary scoring option on a title-contending team. Since being reinserted into the starting lineup, the Nuggets are 8-8 after starting the season 9-16 and at the time of writing this, Denver is up one full game for the eighth seed in the Western Conference.

Slowly, the masses have realized that Jokic is an elite facilitating center. Since returning to the starting lineup on Dec. 15 he is leading all centers in assists per 100 possessions with 8.6 which is almost a full assist more than DeMarcus Cousins, who is second with 7.8. Not only is he racking up assists but he is doing it in style.

It is that passing ability that has directly led to the Nuggets improving across the board offensively. Look at the number from the first 25 games, when Jokic was not starting, compared to the last 16 games with the starting unit.

Jokic managed to drastically improve the offense while actually cutting back on his turnovers substantially. Denver as a whole is getting more open looks as his assist percentage skyrocketed.

The 21-year-old hasn’t just elevated the Nuggets as a team but his individual stats have blossomed as well. In the month of January, which has spanned seven games, Jokic is averaging 24.9 points 11.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists to go with one steal and one block while shooting 61.1 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from three.

Offensive ceiling

While Jokic has continued to make his highlight reel passes with ease, he has suddenly put together a three-game stretch in which he is averaging a ridiculous 31.3 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.7 blocks while shooting nearly 62 percent from the field. Jokic has been able to score at will when needed and has shown that he has the potential to carry an offense.

The best example of this was against the San Antonio Spurs. The Nuggets were on their third game in four nights after playing the Pacers in London. The game was as much of a scheduled loss as it could be even before it was announced that the Nuggets would be without Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and Darrell Arthur. The Nuggets were so thin at forward that Juancho Hernangomez was forced to start.

Jokic proceeded to take on a fully healthy Spurs squad that was playing on their home floor without three of Denver’s main contributors and put up 35 points on 14-22 shooting to go with 12 rebounds, four assists including a stretch in the fourth quarter where Jokic scored 14 straight points to keep the game within reach. Jokic single-handedly carried the Nuggets throughout most of the game and took it upon himself to leave everything on the court and play to win.

Jokic has now accumulated 94 points in the last three games and it begs the question of how Jokic is suddenly able to score like this?

First, let’s take a look at his shot chart throughout this season, so far.

At first glance, the sea of green looks great. He is shooting above average at most spots on the court but where he does most of his damage is within five feet of the rim. His ability to shoot 66.5 percent at the rim without any vertical athleticism is impressive. Jokic uses creativity and his incredibly high basketball IQ to outsmart and out-maneuver his defender.

In the clip above you can see Jokic anticipate the pressure coming when he receives the pass under the hoop and elects to avoid some of the pressure by spinning into the lane. He then muscles through an attempt at a steal from Jeff Teague and instead of going into Kevin Seraphin, Jokic bends backward and uses his long reach to sneak the ball up and over the defender. Jokic has shown an innate ability to bend around the defense when trying to score down low and has shot a high percentage at the rim for his career because of it.

Jokic has developed creative ways of scoring around the rim like the way he has managed to add a shot where he catches the ball with one hand and shoots it all in one motion.

Jokic being able to speed up the time it takes for him to get a shot up helps make up for his lack of athletic ability. That kind of coordination is astounding in someone 21-years-old with a 6-11 frame and a 7-foot wingspan.

While his finishing at the rim is solid considering his limitations, what truly makes Jokic special is his ability to play outside of the restricted area. Currently, Jokic is leading the league in shooting percentage from 5-9 feet at 57.4 percent and from 10-14 feet where he shoots an astonishing 70.6 percent which is 11.1 percent better than second-place Jon Leuer, per NBA.com

5-9 feet from the basket

From 5-9 feet away from the rim, Jokic has already made a living with his floater that baffles defenders.

What Jokic will do is get going downhill towards his defender and suddenly pull up early. There are very few centers in the league who have the touch to hit floaters from seven feet out but Jokic can hit that shot in his sleep. He pulls up early, leaving Nikola Vucevic scrambling to contest the shot, and hits the easy floater over the top of the defense.

Jokic also has an advanced ball-handling ability for his size and age and can attack closeouts and finish with a floater over the defense. A perfect example is against the Spurs. Jokic spins off David Lee and leaves him in the dust as he hits the floater over LaMarcus Aldridge.

Again, a 21-year-old center being able to pull off that type of play is bewildering and it leads to Jokic becoming an even tougher cover than he already is.

Not only does he attack with the floater but he is able to score from the low post as well and excels at getting the opponent into mismatches with smaller players guarding him at the low block, here against Nick Young.

This time Jokic simply beats Timofey Mozgov down the court and Young is forced to pick him up. Jokic immediately calls for the ball, backs him down, draws the foul, and hits the turnaround push shot above Young’s outstretched hand.

10-14 feet from the basket

Where things really get insane is 10-14 feet from the rim where Jokic is shooting an astounding 70.6 percent. Jokic has the threat of his facilitating ability from the high post and the capability to just shoot right over the defense.

Above, you can see Jokic take a step further into the corner as Emmanuel Mudiay slashes into the rim. That additional couple feet away from the basket allows Jokic to take one hard step to the bucket that gets Dwight Powell to have to contest a layup at the rim but instead, Jokic jumps straight up after his first step and his the 12-foot uncontested floater.

Jokic continually gets the defense off balance allowing him to shoot such a high percentage from mid-range.

This time, Jokic gets the ball in the mid-post, faces up Luc Mbah a Moute of the Clippers, and puts up a lightning-quick shot that Jokic banks in while drawing the foul. Jokic’s versatility in the mid-range has led to defenders often freezing and Jokic exploits those mistakes on a consistent basis.

Jokic can even burn you in catch-and-shoot situations in mid-range. If a defender does not play him close, Jokic will nail this free-throw line jumper more often than not.

Overall impact

Jokic has developed and polished his offensive game to the point that he is so versatile, that he is nearly unguardable in the mid-range, regardless of if he is shooting or facilitating. Add in the fact that he is fifth in the league in shooting percentage from 25-29 feet on top of everything else, and Jokic is putting a strain on defenses in an assortment of ways.

Jokic’s ceiling is seemingly getting higher every game. Couple that with the fact that Jokic is still just 21-years-old and he still has a considerable amount of work to do with his body. Imagine how effective Jokic will be with three more years to work on his body and more NBA experience under his belt.

When Mike Miller was asked if Jokic knows how good he is after his 35 points in San Antonio, the veteran summed it up perfectly.

“Not yet but that is what is exciting. I don’t think he realizes it and it’s my job and the rest of these guys job  is to make sure he does realize it but at the same time stays humble and keep working and becomes the best he can be,” Miller said.” The sky is the limit for him. He is 21-years-old and he has every tool in the toolbox and you are starting to see that now.”