Nikola Jokic has a fouling problem and it's hindering the Nuggets

 

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DENVER — One thing that’s clear through 30 regular season games is that Nikola Jokic is the Denver Nuggets’ best player.

Offensively, Denver is nearly eight points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the floor, while on defense, they’re surrendering roughly four points per 100 possessions less with Jokic patrolling the paint. Currently, the 21-year-old leads the Nuggets in win shares per 48 minutes, Real Plus-Minus, Net Rating, and any other advanced statistic you want to throw his way.

However, what’s transpired over the course of this season with Jokic has evolved from a failed attempt to play him at the four next to Jusuf Nurkic, to a self-inflicted demotion to the bench so he could get back to playing center full-time, to a new development over the last four games, all of which Jokic has started.

Jokic has a foul problem.

Take the Nuggets latest defeat, a 109-108 loss to the Atlanta Hawks where there was plenty of blame to go around, but a large chunk of the responsibility fell on Jokic, who could only stay on the floor for 19 minutes.

In those 19 minutes, Jokic was effective. Eight points, seven rebounds, and six assists, five of which came in the first quarter. But Jokic’s knack for drawing fouls is starting to catch up to him and the Nuggets. He was a +6 plus-minus in the 19 minutes he played.

Jokic picked up two fouls in a 20-second span in the second quarter, then two more within the first two minutes of the second half. Finally, his sixth, coming on a loose ball foul late in the fourth which led to a Malone technical foul which propelled the Hawks to victory.

“It’s every night,” Michael Malone said of Jokic’s foul trouble after Denver’s loss to Atlanta Friday night. “Nikola Jokic has to learn, this is like the fourth of fifth game since he’s started that he’s getting into foul trouble, and the one game he doesn’t get into foul trouble he flirts with a triple-double. He’s hurting himself, he’s hurting the team. He just has to be smarter, that’s the bottom line. He’s too important of a player. We play through him and we need him on the floor.”

The fascinating subplot and maybe the silver lining around Jokic finding himself in foul trouble in three of his past five games is that most of the fouls the second-year center is committing, are stupid, careless, and avoidable.

Jokic’s first foul Friday night came in the second quarter. It was a frustration foul, one where Jokic, got his pass to Wilson Chandler stuffed by Thabo Sefolosha. Jokic then commits a silly “Euro foul” on Sefolosha, an act meant to stop an opponent fast break which grew to popularity in Europe and gradually made it’s way over the NBA.

His second foul came roughly 20 seconds after his first. This one was a throwback to earlier in the season when Jokic, while playing the four, had trouble containing quicker big men off the dribble. Here, Jokic isn’t able effectively close out on Mike Muscala who gets Jokic off balance as Denver’s big man commits another foul, this time to stop penetration.

Jokic’s third foul, a silly reach on Kris Humphries at the start of the second quarter, another inexcusable act for a big man that’s already on two fouls at the beginning of the half.

Then his fourth foul, Jokic’s first of the night that came on an actual basketball play, was committed less than two minutes after his third.

After sitting most of the fourth quarter, Jokic commits his fifth foul of the night on another avoidable play. Jokic gets tangled up with rookie DeAndre’ Bembry in the backcourt, and Bembry certainly sells the contact, but it’s Jokic’s responsibility to keep himself out of these situations.

Finally, Jokic’s sixth foul, only his second of the night that came via a true basketball play could have gone either way but was a poor call in my opinion. Jokic, going for the rebound, gets cut off by Sefolosha and gets his arm caught.

The good news is that Jokic’s fouls come in bunches. Two within 20 seconds of each other in the second quarter, then two more withing two minutes of each other to start the third.

Also, the majority of the fouls he’s committing are avoidable and mental mistakes. The Euro foul, fouls committed in the backcourt, and silly reaches are correctable offenses, ones which such a high-IQ player like Jokic shouldn’t be committing.

Jokic is an incredibly smart basketball player, the best passing center in the league, and intelligent enough to adapt. He should be able to correct his current issue and his foul problem isn’t something I think we’ll be talking about later in the season, but for now, Jokic is hurting himself, his coach and the Nuggets by not being able to stay on the court.