NBA power rankings: The Spurs are scary, the Suns are real, and Mavericks are confusing

It’s our last power ranking of the calendar year, and we’ve finally seen movement within the league’s top-two spots thanks to the San Antonio Spurs, who have emerged as an unquestioned championship threat. There are still six or seven true contenders, and it no longer feels like this season’s script has the Thunder as an uncontested favorite. Here’s how the league looks these days.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (27-5, 1st in the West)

Two-sentence summary: We should still probably view this season as Oklahoma City vs. the field, but the field has emerged as a favorite after the Thunder’s mortality was exposed in three defeats to the San Antonio Spurs. For all the NBA Cup haters: Because those two teams met in the semifinals, we’ll actually get five regular season matchups between them this season, the next coming in mid-January.

One question: I think it’s fair to say that Oklahoma City’s offense would benefit from one more dynamic shooter. Is that something Sam Presti would consider addressing midseason?

2. San Antonio Spurs (23-8, 2nd in the West)

Two-sentence summary: San Antonio now owns the league’s best record (7-1) against opponents with a top-10 point differential this season; the only blemish thus far came against the New York Knicks. This team may still have hiccups, like this weekend’s loss to the Utah Jazz, but there’s every reason to believe that this team should continue getting better as its young players mature and Victor Wembanyama’s minutes lose their restrictions.

One question: Is there any in-season desire to upgrade at the Julian Champagnie spot?

3. Denver Nuggets (22-9, 3rd in the West)

Two-sentence summary: Denver should still believe it’s the league’s second-best team, one that absolutely can take down its conference rivals ranked above them. The good news for the three injured starters: The remaining mettle tests against Oklahoma City and San Antonio, all six of them, won’t begin until late February.

One question: Are we making sure we aren’t taking Nikola Jokić for granted?

4. New York Knicks (22-9, 2nd in the East)

Two-sentence summary: New York holds the league’s second-best point differential against top-10 teams, even if they’ve won just six of those 10 matchups so far this season. While New York still leaves something to be desired defensively, I’m comfortable declaring them the East’s best team, a designation I don’t think is likely to change barring major trade deadline shakeups and assuming health.

One question: Is there any hope for Guerschon Yabusele, an offseason signing I liked, to still find his way?

5. Houston Rockets (19-10, 5th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: Houston still boasts the league’s second-best net rating, and the team’s offense continued to thrive with Kevin Durant and an unleashed Reed Sheppard. But the defense has faltered in some recent losses to bottom-feeding teams, which is a slight concern.

One question: Will Tari Eason’s return and Dorian Finney-Smith’s debut be enough to turn this defensive slump around?

6. Detroit Pistons (24-8, 1st in the East)

Two-sentence summary: Detroit has a better record (4-1) but no outstanding performances vs. the league’s top-10, a metric that clearly matters to me now that we’re nearing the halfway point of the NBA’s season. Still, the team’s physical identity is still deeply established and a chore to play against.

One question: Is Cade Cunningham the best “two-way” star in the league? His defense stands out nightly.

7. Boston Celtics (19-12, 3rd in the East)

Two-sentence summary: Boston might be the league’s most surprising contender, a label that I truly don’t think is too ambitious to assign them at this point of the year. I still worry about the team’s big man rotation, held together by Neemias Queta, whose on-court presence determines whether Boston is the great team they’ve been or something closer to average.

One question: If Jayson Tatum really returns this season, would that turn Boston into conference favorites?

8. Minnesota Timberwolves (20-12, 6th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: Minnesota remains one of the league’s five teams with a top-10 unit on both ends, but it still feels they’re lacking the oomph of the squads above them. Most notably, the team’s defense still disintegrates without Rudy Gobert on the court.

One question: What’s the next big swing that Tim Connelly must be plotting right now?

9. Phoenix Suns (18-13, 7th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: Phoenix successfully passed the not-just-a-tough-play test by notching two comfortable wins against the New Orleans Pelicans. That’s what good teams do, and the Suns, at this point, are indisputably a good team, albeit one still several steps away from raising their ceiling back to the contention levels they aspired to have the past few years.

One question: Are you all having as much fun watching the Collin Gillespie-Oso Ighodarho two-man game as I am? It constantly catches teams by surprise on the court’s weak side.

10. Los Angeles Lakers (20-10, 4th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: J.J. Redick berated his players’ effort after the team’s Christmas defeat, promising changes, which ended up just being more minutes for Nick Smith Jr. in the rotation. That’s fine; this isn’t a season that was supposed to be a contending one for the Lakers, anyway, despite the scrutiny this team will always receive.

One question: Is there anything more insufferable than the endless online war between the Luka Dončić and the LeBron James stans?

11. Toronto Raptors (19-14, 4th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: Scottie Barnes notched a 23-25-10 triple-double, and he’s firmly reestablished himself as one of the league’s 30 best players. There’s still a glaring absence in the front court for this group, one that existed even prior to Jakob Poeltl’s injury.

12. Orlando Magic (18-14, 5th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: Orlando still threatens, in certain games, to put it all together as one of the East’s best teams; Anthony Black has found his scoring groove more and more often, and Paolo Banchero continues to morph into a more flexible offensive weapon, at least sometimes. But they’re still not yet there, and the never-ending injury absences don’t help.

13. Golden State Warriors (16-16, 8th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: Golden State’s about what they’ve been for the past two seasons, and Jimmy Butler’s excellence this year hasn’t changed that a bit. I was wrong to think last season’s superb close to the season would lead to a better regular season, but I’m still not totally out on the idea that it’s still in there somewhere for this team.

One question: Does Brandin Podziemski know he’s allowed to take layups without using the decel step?

14. Cleveland Cavaliers (17-16, 8th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: Cleveland could’ve been feeling better about its wretched start after Christmas’ competitive tilt against the Knicks even despite blowing that fourth quarter lead, but its subsequent defeat to the Houston Rockets brought back all of the dour feelings about how this squad just isn’t meshing like it did last year. Darius Garland just isn’t the player he was, and that stands out more than ever each passing game.

One question: Is Max Strus ever coming back?

15. Philadelphia 76ers (16-14, 6th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: Philadelphia remains in a quirky no-man’s-land with no end in sight, unfortunately, even as Tyrese Maxey continues to excel. It’s just sobering to watch Joel Embiid on the nights where he has no force and no balance to do anything but shoot jumpers.

One question: Is there any player in the league more explosive driving immediately off the catch than V.J. Edgecombe? (I’ll answer that one: no.)

16. Miami Heat (17-15, 7th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: Miami might just be destined to be a Play-In team until the world ends. There’s still a lot to like about Miami’s team, but the ceiling just isn’t there yet again.

One question: Has Pelle Larson turned into a consistently plus player?

17. Chicago Bulls (15-16, 9th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: Chicago’s offense wants to resemble last year’s Indiana Pacers, and it does sometimes look like that, but it falters for an obvious reason: Josh Giddey isn’t anything like Tyrese Haliburton. When you add a below-average defense that rarely generates turnovers, it’s a poor recipe, one reflected by the team’s record.

One question: Why did the Bulls have to ruin all the goodwill built up from the team’s five-game winning streak with such a middling loss to the Bucks?

18. Atlanta Hawks (15-18, 10th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: Kristaps Porziņģis has the league’s fourth-best estimated plus-minus, which is generally known as the league’s most notable catch-all metric. He’s once again nearing a return, and a healthy Porziņģis might do more to solve Atlanta’s woes than any ambitious trade, such as the team’s rumored interest in Anthony Davis.

One question: That’s great, but is there any way to trust in Porziņģis’ availability even if you do see him on the court?

19. Dallas Mavericks (12-21, 11th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: It’s never good for franchises to be stuck between two different eras, but Dallas has somehow managed to get themselves jammed between three. The Mavericks still have players best suited for the team that was built around Luka Dončić; there are others, like Anthony Davis and D’Angelo Russell, who were meant to be part of the Nico Harrison vision; and then there’s the real future, one built around Cooper Flagg, that must be figured out.

One question: Is this deadline’s likeliest outcome for Dallas just that they stand pat?

20. Memphis Grizzlies (15-17, 9th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: If Cam Spencer isn’t raining 3s, there’s still something missing from this offense. Zach Edey getting injured remains so cruel to a team that was threatening to put it together with him on the court.

21. Portland Trail Blazers (13-19, 10th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: No team turns it over more than the Trail Blazers, whose offensive success early in the year has tumbled back down to dismal levels. In fact, over the past two weeks, the Blazers have looked much closer to the squad we saw down the stretch of last season: they have the league’s 11th-best defense … and 29th-ranked offense.

22. Utah Jazz (12-19, 11th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: Before falling to the Memphis Grizzlies this past weekend, Utah hadn’t lost to a team below .500 since early November. This is the league’s most bizzaro team, I think, because you know they’re still not good, you know they still don’t have the pieces, and yet again they’ve been far feistier than they have any right to be to begin this year.

23. Brooklyn Nets (10-19, 13th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: Who would’ve thought this Brooklyn team, with nothing resembling an All-Defense talent, would be the league’s best defense in December? While the Nets still lack talent, the team’s identity has shown up more clearly in the past weeks.

One question: Could Michael Porter Jr. be considered a veteran building block for a team like this? Is that insane?

24. Milwaukee Bucks (13-19, 11th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: Giannis Antetokounmpo is windmill dunking in crunch time and generally acting like someone who knows his time is very near to the end in the only city he’s ever played. So, what’s next?

25. L.A. Clippers (10-21, 12th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: The Clippers have won four straight and might be on track to dig out of this calamitous season. Even Brook Lopez has emerged with signs of life in Ivica Zubac’s absence.

One question: That’s all well and good, but to what end?

26. Charlotte Hornets (11-20, 12th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: This is exactly where a team with this many replacement-level starters should be, unfortunately, even if LaMelo Ball’s efficiency has started creeping back to more acceptable levels. That said, at least Tidjane Salaun has been respectable in a rotation role of late.

One question: How dire would this Hornets season be without Kon Knueppel this year?

27. New Orleans Pelicans (8-25, 14th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: There are some tiny signs of life from the Pelicans, who have played opponents dead even when Derik Queen, Trey Murphy III, and Herb Jones share the floor together. Those lineups just haven’t been consistent or available enough for it to change this season.

One question: One thing I’m slightly worried about: What’s the best defensive outcome for Queen?

28. Sacramento Kings (8-24, 14th in the West)

Two-sentence summary: Sacramento coach Doug Christie set out with a mission to improve this team’s defense this season. Well, it’s four points worse per 100 possessions than last year. 

One question: Is there any team that executes worse on that end?

29. Washington Wizards (7-23, 14th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: No team allows more offensive rebounds than the Wizards, and no team forces turnovers at a lower rate than them. It’s a really bad recipe.

One question: Is Bub Carrington’s recent play, hitting 58 percent of his 2s over the past six games, here to stay?

30. Indiana Pacers (6-26, 15th in the East)

Two-sentence summary: When the NBA once again projects its distaste for tanking, I look at the poor Pacers and wonder, what are they really to do? This could end up being one of the most beneficial gap years ever taken, though, or at least the Pacers should hope so.

One question: Can we use this season as a testament to how f’ing good Tyrese Haliburton really is?

Tim Cato is ALLCITY’s national NBA writer currently based in Dallas.  He can be reached at tcato@alldlls.com or on X at @tim_cato.