(NBA) Draft or Pass: Stanley Johnson

Over the next few weeks leading up to the 2015 NBA Draft I’ll be reviewing some of the top prospects slated to be drafted before or around the No. 7 overall pick, currently owned by the Denver Nuggets. Because abundant backdrop on each of these players can be found across the Internet, my goal is not to recycle statistics, personal upbringing stories or opinions held by the general public, but rather to interpret the data and ultimately determine whether the Nuggets should draft or pass on these future NBA-check collectors.

As we approach the midway point of BSN’s series analyzing the best prospects in the upcoming draft it’s time to examine Stanley Johnson, the first athlete to appear in a private workout setting for the Denver Nuggets this June.

Dimensions

19 years old | 6-7 | 242 pounds | Shooting Guard/Small Forward | Arizona

Rundown

In the realm of NBA Draft prospects, Stanley Johnson should be categorized as a complete package. He’s got solid height for a wing, he’s one of the more cut freshman we’ve seen in years coming out of college, he can shoot at an efficient clip from downtown, he can drive the lane like a juggernaut and yet his greatest strength may very well be his defense. Outside of elite court vision there’s really nothing Johnson fails to do at a high level.

Why He’ll Succeed

Similar to Karl-Anthony Towns, Johnson simply has too many tools to fail. There’s a chance he won’t be as good as projected, but that unforeseen outcome exists for most all draft prospects. Where he’ll find his greatest success will likely revolve around his strength as a powerful two-way player. Johnson is truly one of the better, more versatile defenders in the draft, able to body up a three positions on the floor with relative ease. Conversely, Johnson is no klutz on offense, as he led a veteran Arizona team in scoring this past season at nearly 14 points per game on 45 percent shooting from the field and 37 percent shooting from 3-point territory.

Why He’ll Fail

In terms of translating his success to the next level Johnson has two main concerns among draft analysts. Above all else scouts worry about his conversion rate inside the paint. At Arizona he finished the year with one of the more abysmal paint percentages of any prospect in this year’s draft class. Though Johnson claims this was due to rule changes going from high school to college, many “experts” point to his lack of elite explosion as the culprit, using this foible as further evidence he’ll struggle against much better athletes in the NBA. Additionally, while Johnson finished the year shooting respectable numbers from most everywhere on the floor, scouts won’t let him forget that coming into college he was anything but a shooter, and apparently in the world of scouting how you played in high school is something you should be constantly reminded of as the NBA Draft approaches regardless of what you did in college.

Draft or Pass?

Let me just first state that Johnson is a “draft.” No doubt about it. Of all the prospects slated to be available around pick seven, Johnson is without question one of my favorites. His physique is the most impressive not only in this draft but of any draft in the last several years, and when you combine this with his defensive intensity, thirst for rebounding and overall motor, it’s extremely difficult to see Johnson flopping at the next level — especially considering he was only 18 years old throughout his entire freshman campaign at Arizona!

Unfortunately for Johnson the side effects of a powerful and deep draft class are that exceptional prospects like himself tend to be squeezed from top of the lottery on a normal year to mid-lottery in years like 2015. This is of course great news for the Nuggets, yet I can’t help but feel Johnson — similar to Willie Cauley-Stein — could end up a victim of sexy favoritism as the No. 7 overall pick approaches on draft night. If, for example, guys like Mario Hezonja, Emmanuel Mudiay and Kristaps Porzingis are available, common Internet draft logic says to select them ahead of defensive fundamentalists like Justise Winslow, Willie Cauley-Stein and Stanley Johnson, because as we’re all well aware, offense sells tickets and ostensibly generates revenue (not true, however). Yet whether this theory applies to Tim Connelly and his staff is merely dubious, as the Nuggets did quite the job of hunting down two two-way players in the first round of last year’s draft.

Being Johnson was the first player to workout privately for the Nuggets in preparation for the upcoming draft, I suspect Connelly and his team have great interest in the manchild from Arizona, something I wholeheartedly approve. And if Johnson is to be selected with the seventh overall pick come June 25, I’ll rest assured the Nuggets added yet another outstanding two-way prospect to their young and improving roster heading into the future.