(NBA) Draft or Pass: Kristaps Porzingis

Over the next few weeks leading up to the 2015 NBA Draft I’ll be reviewing some of the top prospects slated to be drafted before or around the No. 7 overall pick, currently owned by the Denver Nuggets. Because abundant backdrop on each of these players can be found across the Internet, my goal is not to recycle statistics, personal upbringing stories or opinions held by the general public, but rather to interpret the data and ultimately determine whether the Nuggets should draft or pass on these future NBA-check collectors.

First up in BSN’s series analyzing the consensus top prospects in this year’s NBA Draft is Kristaps Porzingis, perhaps the single most enigmatic figure predicted to drop in the top 10.

Dimensions

19 years old | 7-1 | 220 pounds | Center/Power Forward | Baloncesto Sevilla

Rundown

Of the elite prospects in the draft, Porzingis is without question the most difficult to pin down. He’s really tall, really skinny, yet he can shoot really well from downtown. That’s essentially Kristaps Porzingis.

As you can see above, Grantland is currently doing a three-part series on Porzingis, including video analysis and interviews with some of the more venerated NBA Draft writers on the Internet. And while virtually all of them can agree Porzingis has some incredibly impressive qualities, there’s still a palpable sense of insecurity surrounding how he’ll translate to the NBA.

Why He’ll Succeed

If Porzingis finds success in the NBA it will be because of one major attribute: shooting. The guy just has a gift from beyond the arc in that his shooting stroke is both silky smooth and fundamentally sound. From Day 1 in the NBA, Porzingis will have a clear advantage over the competition as he’ll be able to draw his opponents out to the 3-point line, thus opening up the lane for his teammates all while Porzingis poses as a legitimate threat to swish long-range shots at a high volume. This archetype, the sweet-shooting big man, is perhaps the hottest on the market right now in the NBA, therefore it’s not hard to see why some teams are swooning over the opportunity to draft a guy like Porzingis.

Why He’ll Fail

Because he has one superlative skill (shooting) Porzingis will likely find a role in the NBA for years to come, especially considering the historical rarity that is 7-footers who can shoot at an efficient clip from anywhere on the floor. That said, there’s a monumental difference between carving out a role in the NBA and being drafted top 10 with the expectations of becoming a star and franchise building block far into the future. For Porzingis, this is where question marks start to pervade the analysis, questions like: Is he too skinny? Will he ever be able to put on the type of weight needed to bang down low? Is a lower-body frame of such fragility destined for incessant injury? Can he do anything else besides shoot? Are his historically underwhelming assists numbers a red flag? Will he ever develop the dominant low-post skills necessary to counter his shooting and truly embolden his natural skill set?

Again, Porzingis doesn’t look like a total failure; but he doesn’t exactly jump off the page as a guaranteed star either. Outside of shooting and perhaps athleticism, virtually every aspect of his game can be questioned. For a guy who could go as high as No. 2 overall, that’s about as much ammunition as detractors could possibly want to classify Porzingis as a certified bust.

Draft or Pass?

I left Porzingis off my initial big board of the top 10 prospects in this year’s draft, and though I’d be more inclined to include him down the road — mostly given his standing amongst draft “experts” who know much more about him than I — nothing’s really swayed me to view him any differently than before.

As you can tell from above, Porzingis is still a guy I have far more questions about than answers. I still think as an NBA audience we’re so desperate for the next Dirk NowitzkiI we’ll do anything to overlook glaring red flags in order to fantasize Dirk 2.0 coming to fruition when in fact we’ve yet to unearth a stretch-four Euro with a talent level strong enough to eclipse Andrea Bargnani. I still have no idea how his body will fill out down the road. (Say what you want about the history of gaunt prospects putting on weight in the NBA but for every Dwight Howard there’s a Greg Oden and even a Kevin Durant, who missed nearly the entire season this year due to injuries.) I still have no idea how his post game is so undeveloped despite his knowledge of being a likely NBA Draft pick for years. I still doubt his ability to defend robust athletes at the next level. I still see his atrocious assist rate as a verifiable red flag, an indicator of low basketball IQ which is a trait proven to repel longterm contract deals in the NBA. And until someone can convince me otherwise, I still see a prospect with more questions than answers as one to avoid, which is exactly why I’ll pass on Porzingis given more reliable options will likely be available for the Nuggets to draft at No. 7 overall.