(NBA) Draft or Pass: Emmanuel Mudiay

Over the next few weeks leading up to the 2015 NBA Draft I’ll be reviewing some of the top prospects slated to be drafted before or around the No. 7 overall pick, currently owned by the Denver Nuggets. Because abundant backdrop on each of these players can be found across the Internet, my goal is not to recycle statistics, personal upbringing stories or opinions held by the general public, but rather to interpret the data and ultimately determine whether the Nuggets should draft or pass on these future NBA-check collectors.

With only two more players left to look at in our 2015 series examining the best players in the upcoming draft, it’s time to examine our penultimate prospect, Emmanuel Mudiay.

Dimensions

19 years old | 6-5 | 200 pounds | Point Guard | Guangdong (China)

Rundown

Emmanuel Mudiay is essentially a very big, strong point guard with excellent court vision. Having just turned 19 a few months ago Mudiay is far ahead of the average curve in terms of his physical build and overall maturity. As his high school tenure approached an end Mudiay originally committed to Southern Methodist University to play for Larry Brown but later reversed his decision and opted to compete overseas in China until he became eligible for the NBA Draft. Despite putting up impressive numbers in the land of Confucius, Mudiay was ultimately injured for most of the season, leaving scouts with only a small sample size of his potential abilities.

Why He’ll Succeed

Like most of the prospects we’ve probed thus far, Mudiay has several attributes that will work in his favor at the next level. More than anything he’s a solid basketball player with fantastic distribution skills. This alone can keep you employed in the NBA for at least a few more contracts after your rookie deal expires. But Mudiay also has superb size at the point guard position as well as an NFL linebacker’s frame which will help to create mismatches on a nightly basis. Furthermore, Mudiay is considered one of the more mentally astute prospects in the draft — a quality every general manager, scout and head coach salivate over.

Why He’ll Fail

Though he passes the test of having en elite skill, requisite athleticism and the mental makeup to succeed in the NBA, Mudiay doesn’t come prepackaged without his fair share of concerns. His shot, for example, is what some refer to as “broken.” He often changes his release point and overall shooting motion which is a bit worrisome for a player about to embark on a journey playing professional basketball at the highest level. Mudiay also lack consistency on the defensive side of the ball and is prone to taking questionable shots despite being a point guard who’s best quality is getting other people open looks.

Draft or Pass?

I’ll be the first to admit Mudiay has never really intrigued me the way other top prospects in this draft have. Though he’s drawn comparisons to superbly athletic point guards like Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and John Wall, I’ve always thought those analogies to be a bit overwhelming. Is Mudiay athletic? Of course. But in likening him to Westbrook and Rose, you’re talking about placing him on par with perhaps the two most athletic, offensively gifted point guards the NBA has ever seen. And that’s just not who Mudiay is.

Though Mudiay is a fine prospect — and one I’d still lobby for the Nuggets to select if available — it’s also important to view him in context of the era he’s playing in. The NBA is currently a wing-centered league predicated on stretching the floor and defending the perimeter. Pass-first point guards (or those like Mudiay who’s greatest strength is passing), regardless of their physical brawn, just don’t win you titles. For as much as we all love to fawn over point guards like Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving or the aforementioned Rose and Westbrook, the fact is only one of those guys finished top 10 in assists per game this past season. Their lethality lies not in their ability to get others involved, but in their absolutely insatiable appetite to score the rock.

Whether Mudiay possesses the kind of offensive talent necessary to lead your team to a title is anyone’s guess. Though his shooting stroke certainly needs work, it’s also far from “broken.” And as anyone who follows the NBA well knows, shooting is perhaps the single most improved aspect of a prospect’s game after they make the jump to the next level.

Mudiay is therefore a “draft,” though it seems obvious to note that if the Nuggets do select him it likely means a trade will have ensued (possibly with the Kings for the No. 6 pick, as has been rumored) and that the Ty Lawson era in Denver will have officially and abruptly come to an end. Which, of course, isn’t necessarily a bad thing at this point.