NBA Draft Film Room: Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the best point guard in the draft?

In the lead-up to the NBA Draft on June 21, BSN Denver is taking an in-depth look at prospects the Nuggets might target in the first round. Each draft profile will be accompanied by a podcast available on BSNDenver.com and wherever you normally download your podcasts from. To submit questions for the podcast, reply in the comments section at the bottom of this story.

THE BASICS

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — Guard — Kentucky

NBA Role: Primary ball handler who can play both backcourt spots, secondary offensive option

Player Comparison: Rajon Rondo

What if I told you the best point guard in the draft may slip to the end of the lottery and get selected behind two higher-profile lead ball handlers? Is that something you might be interested in? To borrow an old adage from the show “Entourage,” you should be.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a 19-year-old guard originally from Canada, doesn’t have the star power and jaw-dropping highlight reel of a Trae Young and didn’t play with same power and fire possession to possession as a Collin Sexton in his lone season at Kentucky. But there’s a scenario on the table where Gilgeous-Alexander, because of his feel for the game, elite size and upside, emerges over the next five to 10 years as the best point guard in this year’s draft.

The latest mock drafts have Gilgeous-Alexander falling to 11, where the Hornets could look at the rangy guard as their eventual Kemba Walker replacement. Some mocks have him sliding even further to 14 where the Nuggets can bolster their backcourt depth with another versatile, multi-positional player. In Denver, Gilgeous-Alexander could play with either Jamal Murray or Gary Harris.

Elite offensive feel in the half court and open floor

The first thing that stands out about Gilgeous-Alexander is how he moves. He has great size for a lead ball handler at 6-foot-6, but he makes sure to keep his dribble low to the ground. At times it feels like Gilgeous-Alexander is moving in slow motion, plodding and probing the defense only to burst to the hoop at a moments notice.

He’ll play possum too and rock his defender to sleep, especially if he’s in the pick-and-roll. Gilgeous-Alexander hunts switches and is able to read a defense quickly. He usually looks to take a big that tries to guard him out to the three-point line off the dribble.

When a help side defender is slow to react, Gilgeous-Alexander can find the open man. If interior defenders step up anticipating a blowby, he can throw the lob.

He’s not a super quick-twitch guard, but he’s deceptively fast and college-level big men typically didn’t stand much of a chance against him 1-on-1.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s mammoth 6-foot-11 1/2 wingspan was the second-longest at the combine out of point guards behind SMU’s Shake Milton, and his 8-foot-8 standing reach was the longest from any point guard by four inches. The 19-year-old also had the second-biggest hands of point guards at the comb. He knows how to use those measurables to his advantage around the rim.

He can contort his body around defenders at the basket. His long strides take him from the half court line to the three-point arc and then to the basket in a single swoop. Who was the last lead ball handler to finish with Gilgeous-Alexander’s level of grace around the rim? He reminds you of another Kentucky point guard Rajon Rondo in that regard.

When he gets to the basket, Gilgeous-Alexander is a crafty finisher. He hit better than 60 percent of his attempts at the rim last season which is a good mark considering more than half of his field goal attempts came from that area of the floor, per Hoop-Math.

His go-to finish is a one-handed scoop. Gilgeous-Alexander can shake his defender, get a half-step advantage and pin his man on his backside. He can finish with either hand around the rim and jump off both feet. He’s advanced for his age on wrong footed/wrong handed layups and can execute euro steps at the hoop and through traffic.

In the open floor, Gilgeous-Alexander’s basketball IQ continues to shine. He’s always looking to advance the ball quickly, similar to how Lakers point guard Lonzo Ball quickly gets the ball up the floor off a make or miss. His eyes are always up and surveying the defense when he receives the ball.

Weaknesses

If there’s one major knock on Gilgeous-Alexander entering the draft, it’s his shooting. He only attempted 1.8 threes per 40 minutes, which was a lower mark than non-three-point threats like Mohamed Bamba (2.3 per 40) and Marvin Bagley (2.1 per 40). Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander shot a healthy 40.4 percent from distance but only attempted 57 threes last season.

However, there’s reason to believe he’ll be able to pose somewhat of a threat as a capable shooter at the next level. Gilgeous-Alexander shot 81.7 percent from the free-throw line on 4.7 attempts per game. Free-throw percentage is more often than not a better way to determine a players’ future success as a three-point shooter.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot also doesn’t look all that bad. He has a slow release but sound mechanics. When he gets his feet set for catch-and-shoot jumpers on the perimeter he can keep the defense honest. It’s far from a strength, though.

Where Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot really struggles is when he’s on the move. He didn’t create a ton of open perimeter looks for himself off the dribble last season. That’s just not his game. Gilgeous-Alexander’s offensive profile is built around his ability to get to the rim and put pressure on the defense. Eliminate that from his offensive repertoire and he’ll struggle to make as significant of an impact on that end of the floor.

He has made contested, pull-up, jumpers before, but again it’s far from a strength.

Gilgeous-Alexander can be erratic at times as a playmaker too. He’s reliant on screens to gain airspace in the half court and sometimes gets himself into trouble when he gets into the lane. At times, he tries to make something out of nothing.

The Verdict

Gilgeous-Alexander has a lot of what you want in a franchise point guard. He’s long and lean, as crafty as they get around the rim and has a great understanding of the game for a 19-year-old. He’s a skilled finished around the paint and can get his teammates involved too. Gilgeous-Alexander is also a plus defender and can navigate through switches on that end of the floor.

His long frame and basketball IQ comes in handy on the glass where Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 5.1 rebounds per game last season.

Gilgeous-Alexander can play both guard spots but he will need to grow more consistent with his jumper to be a big-time threat off the ball. He’s not the most explosive leaper either but is crafty enough to find angles to get his shot off from mid-range and around the hoop.

Is Gilgeous-Alexander going to sell the most tickets or produce the most ESPN highlight reels over the course of his career out of the available point guards at the top of the first round? Probably not. But he has the ability to be the best NBA player out of all three.