NBA Draft Big Board 2.0: Will Nuggets draft for need or target best player available?

When you’re a rebuilding team, gathering assets and trying to pinpoint your foundation, while abiding by the BPA, or Best Player Available strategy in the lottery is usually a good idea.

The hope is that by accumulating as much talent as possible, you have a better chance of finding the pillars of your franchise that you can mold and shape your team around. If there’s a logjam at one position, you expect the cream to rise to the top and the situation to work itself out, and in Denver, it has for the last two drafts.

The Nuggets took Emmanuel Mudiay at No. 7 overall even though he and Ty Lawson overlapped at point guard, and the year earlier took Nikola Jokic in the second round even though they had already acquired Jusuf Nurkic in the lottery in that same draft.

Lawson was quickly traded once it became clear the Nuggets needed to turn over a new leaf and resurrect the culture of the locker room, allowing Mudiay to step into the starting lineup. Meanwhile, Jokic was allowed to get minutes and unlock his potential with Nurkic out for the first half of this past season.

In a sense, both situations worked themselves out and the Nuggets now have two pieces to move forward with and build around. Mudiay and Jokic showed enough this year that Denver should no longer be searching for a point guard and big man, and should shift their approach on draft day towards ‘need.’

Denver has a 21.8 percent chance of jumping into the top three of the lottery and if they do land at No. 3 overall, they’d be faced with an interesting choice, especially after Ingram and Simmons are off the board.

Kriss Dunn, who’s currently No. 3 on my board may very well be the most NBA-ready player in the lottery and one of the favorites to win Rookie of the Year if he finds himself in a situation where he starts next season. But Dunn is best when he’s at the one and that’s where I see him spending most of his time at throughout his career.

Does it make sense to draft (and keep) Dunn with another point guard, who’s younger in Mudiay and already engrained in Denver? If you’re operating under the best player approach then that answer is yes, but if you’re drafting with more of a needs-based approach in mind, the answer is probably no.

Another option at No. 3 is Dragan Bender, who at 7-foot-1 possesses a rare combination of size, speed, and versatility that falls in line with how they league is trending. Bender can stretch the defense out to the 3-point line, but also has the quickness to switch on to smaller guards in the pick and roll, and would fill an actual need for Denver as a stretch-4.

Jamal Murray, Timothe Luwawu and Buddy Hield are all wings that fit the Nuggets needs as well. Denver was fifth-worst leaguewide in 3-point percentage last year and those three prospects all project as plus-shooters.

While those three all forecast as high to mid-lottery picks, Denver could decide to jump on one earlier to address a glaring need. That need for shooting is exemplified by Emmanuel Mudiay’s skill-set and the importance of having a league-average and above shooter from 3-point land playing beside him at all times.

It’s an interesting debate that Denver has to grapple with internally and their ultimate decision could say a lot about just how quickly this rebuild is progressing.

Draft the best player available, especially if that’s a point guard or center and the Nuggets front office is signaling that they’re still looking to collect assets and maybe not ready to start molding this team around Mudiay and Jokic and push for the playoffs. By drafting for need, Denver is hinting that it’s time for the next phase of the rebuilding process and they’re pushing forward with the pillars already in place.

I think Nuggets brass will ultimately align themselves with the latter come June. 23.

*First appearance on big board