Navigating the Denver Nuggets brutal first month of the 2015-16 campaign

October/November Overview

The Nuggets kick off the 2015-16 campaign with a series of tests against Western Conference powerhouses, but also with a logistically manageable schedule. It looks like the NBA’s attempt to limit back-to-backs is paying off early in the season as Denver avoids the dreaded four-games-in-five-days stretch for the entire opening month. With 16 of their first 18 games against fellow Western Conference teams, we should have a good feel for where this team stands by the end of November.

Total Games: 18

Home/Road: 9/9

Back-to-Backs: 4 (3 home-road, 1 road-road)

4-in-5s: 0

Games vs. over .500 teams (2014-15 records): 11

Game-by-Game Projections (all times MDT/MST)

Game 1: Denver @ Houston: Nuggets win 105-85

It was opening night in Houston and Ty Lawson was looking to prove a point in his first game in a new uniform. The Rockets take on the Warriors at home after a day off, perhaps they were looking past the Nuggets a bit. Emmanuel Mudiay had a fine showing with 17 points and 9 assists, making the call of handing him the keys to the franchise this offseason look wise.

Prediction: Predicted a loss here, but Nuggets won it (link to recap above).

Game 2: Denver vs. Minnesota, 7:00 pm, Friday, October 30

Denver opens up the Pepsi Center against the young Minnesota Timberwolves. Karl-Anthony Towns can test the Nuggets young centers, but Towns will still be getting used to the speed of the NBA in the regular season. Denver’s long, athletic wings make life difficult for Andrew Wiggins and a motivated Nuggets squad gets the first win of the Mudiay era in his first game at The Can.

Prediction: Nuggets win (1-1)

Game 3: Denver @ Oklahoma City, 5:00 pm, Sunday, November 1

The Thunder looked incredibly strong in their preseason dismantling of the Nuggets and Jazz and the Nuggets can match their talent while Kevin Durant is healthy. The only hope in this game is that OKC focuses on their match-up the next night with the Rockets in Houston, but  that’s not happening this early in the season.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (1-2)

Game 4: Denver @ LA Lakers, 8:30 pm, Tuesday, November 3

Both teams have rest days before and after this one, so the only advantage either way is the fact that the game is at Staples Center. The Lakers just have too many questions at this point in the season to pose much of a threat to anyone and the Nuggets will be hungry after their loss to Oklahoma City.

Prediction: Nuggets win (2-2)

Game 5: Denver vs. Utah, 7:00 pm, Thursday, November 5

The Nuggets struggled to control the paint in their preseason finale against the Jazz, but were also missing a number of potential rotation players due to some nagging injuries. Utah will be battling for a playoff spot in the West this season, but I don’t think the Nuggets are far behind. Utah plays Portland the night before in Utah, so the fresh legs and home court give Denver the edge in this one.

Prediction: Nuggets win (3-2)

Game 6: Denver @ Golden State, 8:30 pm, Friday, November 6

Denver takes on the Warriors for their third road game against a title contender in their first six. Golden State might run away with this one, but it would be nice to see the Nuggets show some fight in the second leg of their first back-to-back of the season. It will be interesting to see if Coach Malone will be able to take advantage of the Nuggets’ depth in these situation this season.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (3-3)

Game 7: Denver vs. Portland, 7:00 pm, Monday, November 9

Portland lost a ton of talent this offseason, but Damion Lillard has the talent to keep them in most games. He’ll have a hard time carrying the team on his back in back-to-back games however, and the Blazers play the Pistons the night before this one, so the Nuggets will jump over .500 once again.

Prediction: Nuggets win (4-3)

Game 8: Denver vs. Milwaukee, 7:00 pm, Wednesday, November 11

Denver gets their first test against an Eastern Conference foe and manage to take on another team coming off of a home game the night before. The Bucks present a tough matchup, but look for Malone to take advantage of the altitude again and run the Bucks out of the gym.

Prediction: Nuggets win (5-3)

Game 9: Denver vs. Houston, 7:00 pm, Friday, November 13

The Nuggets will be looking for revenge here after the opening night defeat at the hands of Ty Lawson and the Rockets, so expect this game to be circled on the schedule in the locker room. Houston takes on in-state rival Dallas the next night at home, so there’s a chance they overlook the Nuggets in their second matchup of the year and it’ll be interesting to see how the visitor’s locker room feels to Ty Lawson in his first game back in Denver.

Prediction: Nuggets win (6-3)

Game 10: Denver @ Phoenix, 7:00 pm, Saturday, November 14

This is a game the Nuggets should be able to win, but after an emotional victory at home the night before over the Rockets, they’ll just be too tired to overcome a rested Suns team in the midst of a four-game home stand.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (6-4)

Game 11: Denver @ New Orleans, 6:00 pm, Tuesday, November 17

Anthony Davis presents a nightmare matchup for the Nuggets and the only things close to a scheduling quirk that might help Denver is that the Pelicans play the Thunder in Oklahoma City the next night. Davis will prove too strong at both ends for the Nuggets front line and Denver drops a second straight game on the road

Prediction: Nuggets lose (6-5)

Game 12: Denver @ San Antonio, 6:30 pm, Wednesday, November 18

The difficult three-game road trip ends in San Antonio a night after playing in New Orleans. The Spurs may take a while to figure out how to work LaMarcus Aldridge into their system, but it’s not going to be a problem for them against a road-weary Nuggets team.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (6-6)

Game 13: Denver vs. Phoenix, 7:00 pm, Friday, November 20

The Nuggets take on the Suns for the second time in a week, but this time they’ll be coming off a day of rest and back home in the Pepsi Center. The Suns are a difficult team to project, but this is a game the Nuggets should win, especially if they want to emphasize taking care of business in Denver this season.

Prediction: Nuggets win (7-6)

Game 14: Denver vs. Golden State, 6:00 pm, Sunday, November 22

The Nuggets get a second chance against the defending champs, but Steph Curry and that explosive offense are too much again as Denver drops their first game at Pepsi Center.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (7-7)

Game 15: Denver vs. San Antonio, 7:00 pm, Friday, November 27

The Spurs visit Denver in between home games against Dallas and Atlanta, so this is another classic “trap game” situation. Unfortunately, this is the Spurs we’re talking about, so expect them to handle their business in Denver just as well as they did in San Antonio, dropping the Nuggets back to .500.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (7-8)

 Game 16: Denver vs. LA Clippers, 7:00 pm, Tuesday, November 24

The Clippers handled Mudiay and the Nuggets fairly easily in the preseason opener for both teams, but expect Emmanuel to have a better feel for the game when Chris Paul comes to town this time. This game is sandwiched around home games against the Raptors and Jazz at home for LA, so it’s definitely a chance to steal a game against a more talented team early in the season for Denver.

Prediction: Nuggets win (8-8)

Game 17: Denver @ Dallas, 6:30 pm, Saturday, November 28

Many are predicting a precipitous drop-off for the Mavs this season, but a team with Dirk Nowitzki is never out of any game. There will be some good battles between these two teams this season as they fight for the final playoff spots, but this one will go to Dallas as it’s one of just a few home games in a very road-heavy stretch for the Mavs and they’ll be itching to show off for their home crowd.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (8-9)

Game 18: Denver @ Milwaukee, 6:00 pm, Monday, November 30

The Nuggets catch Milwaukee on the second night of a back-to-back once again and take advantage of the situation once more. Finishing this first month at .500 will go a long way towards helping the confidence of Michael Malone’s young team and should be a major confidence boost for Emmanuel Mudiay as he begins his NBA career.

Prediction: Nuggets win (9-9)

Final Prediction for October/November: 9 wins, 9 losses

The teams are difficult, but the Nuggets get some scheduling gifts early on as they catch a number of teams in Denver playing their second game in as many nights. If this prediction is accurate, it would be easy to see Denver stay in contention for the last couple of playoff spots in the West through most of the season along with the Jazz, Mavs, Suns, Kings and Pelicans. Regardless of the actual results, it’s been great to see and read about the team culture and there’s no question that the NBA future is bright in Denver in the hands of Michael Malone and Mudiay.