MW Tournament Preview: Three keys to CSU's success in Sin City

FORT COLLINS, CO. — Win or go home. 

Everybody knows what’s at stake for the Rams in the Mountain West Tournament. After a heartbreaking loss on a buzzer-beater at Nevada, Colorado State men’s basketball needs to make a statement in Las Vegas this week. 

As the metrics currently stand the Rams rank 50th in NET and 61st in KenPom. According to Ken Pomeroy’s site, CSU finished in the top 75 in both adjusted offense (70) and adjusted defense (56) for the regular season. Not to mention that CSU was the only team in the Mountain West not to get swept by a league opponent — despite challenging trips to San Diego State, Utah State and Wyoming on the slate. 

In conference games this season, CSU ranked first in field goal percentage, first in free throw percentage, and second in 3-point percentage. Conversely, CSU was in the top 5 for each of the respective defensive categories as well. Even with all of that on the resume, though, the Green & Gold are far from a lock on Selection Sunday at the moment.

Now, don’t panic if you took a prop bet on the Rams to go dancing. There are a ton of bracketologists still projecting CSU to be in the field — likely in a play-in game for a 12 seed. And as we all know, there is no first round upset more common than No. 12 over No. 5, so it’s really not a horrible spot to be in. 

The tricky part is there’s always the possibility of bid stealers in other conferences. Plus with Boise State and Utah State also on the brink of making the tournament, CSU does not want to be in a similar position as 2015. That year the Rams were a 27 win team and finished 3rd in a really deep Mountain West Conference. CSU even won a game in the MW Tournament, but No. 4 Wyoming ended up upsetting a top 25 Boise State team in the semifinals before taking down the Aztecs for the auto bid. The league still ended up getting three teams in the big dance but CSU got snubbed despite a top 30 RPI ranking* (RPI is no longer relevant but was at the time.) 

If the Rams were to lose early this week and someone like No. 4 Boise State or No. 5 Nevada took the title, it would be really tough to feel confident about CSU’s odds of making the NCAA Tournament — particularly if SDSU and Utah State get in with at-large bids. It just seems highly unlikely that the Mountain West will get four teams into the field — even though there are four teams that are objectively deserving of the recognition. Really, outside of SDSU, nobody should feel all that confident about their tournament odds without winning the auto bid or at the very least making the MW Tournament Championship Game. 

With all of this in mind, let’s get into the keys for a successful tournament run by the Rams. 

Another day, Another game

It’s easy to get caught up in the moment. If the players and coaches begin to look too far ahead or put too much pressure on themselves going into each game, oftentimes it results in a poor performance or a situation where you play to the level of the competition. 

The reality is everyone in the locker room knows exactly what is at stake. There isn’t a team in the country that doesn’t want a chance to compete in the NCAA Tournament. At the same time, though, it’s just another basketball game — and that’s the mindset that this Rams team needs to keep throughout the week. 

“We have enough on our plate as it is focusing on right now that we don’t need to be focusing on the future,” David Roddy said.  “As long as we take care of the present, we’ll know what our future holds.”

“You can do that by still not shying away from, hey, we want to win a championship. We want to play in the NCAA tournament,” Medved added. “I think you can’t just hide from it, but at the same time, I think it’s keeping the same process that we’ve had. There’s an old saying — you don’t play to win — you don’t play not to lose — you play to play your best.”

Defense Translates

Offense has rarely been an issue for the Rams in the Medved era. CSU has established an unselfish culture that allows everyone to get touches and make an impact on that end of the floor. One of the biggest keys for the Rams this year, though, has not been CSU’s ability to score, it’s been the ability to prevent their opponents from scoring.  

For the first time in Medved’s three-year tenure, CSU was a top 60 team defensively (KenPom), and not only did it allow them to cruise against lesser competition, but it also kept them in tighter games when the shots were not falling. As Medved explained, it’s been the improvement on this end that’s allowed the Rams to take the next step as a contender in 2020-21. And if they are able to make a run in the conference tournament this week, it will likely come down to CSU’s defensive efforts. 

So far this season the Rams are 14-1 when they hold opponents to 75 points or less. The only time they lost in that scenario was the wonky game at Saint Mary’s when both teams struggled to combine for 75 points. It’s obviously not a guarantee but if the Rams can keep opponents under this line in Sin City throughout the week, they are going to have a really strong chance to survive and advance. 

Next Man Up 

Despite not having a single senior on the roster, one of the greatest strengths of this team has proven to be depth. CSU frequently goes nine men into the rotation and all of them are trustworthy to receive minutes in crucial situations.

In a tricky format like single-elimination tournaments, the ability to lean on the bench for big minutes is a huge advantage for CSU — especially because other than Boise State, most of the remaining contending teams rely almost exclusively on their starting fives. 

Whether it was taking down San Diego State in Viejas Arena or sweeping Wyoming up in Laramie, time and time again we’ve seen guys like John Tonje and P.J. Byrd step up when the Rams need them the most. In a tight game it genuinely could come down to the minutes Medved is able to get out of his reserves — particularly if a CSU starter gets into foul trouble or worse.

Regardless, the Rams will definitely need a positive impact from the bench unit if they want to survive the gauntlet of winning three games in three days. Trying to put all of that pressure on the ones would almost certainly result in dead legs by the title game. 

Winning any league game in March is a tall task. Winning three in three days? That’s a marathon. Time to see if the Rams are ready for the run.

First Up: Fresno State on Thursday night (9:30 p.m. MT).