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Jakob Poeltl showed Paul Millsap the ball for a split-second too long.
With a perfectly-timed swipe, Millsap struck the rock from Poeltl’s grip with his right hand while the Spurs’ center surveyed the floor, igniting a Nuggets fastbreak early in the second quarter of Denver’s Feb. 10 win over the San Antonio Spurs.
It was one of two steals Millsap recorded that night, both of which came in similar fashion. A few minutes earlier, Millsap misfired on a shot from just outside the restricted area but stayed with the play and poked the ball free from Derrick White’s grasp after he came down with the defensive rebound.
“He has great, great hands,” Michael Malone said. “I think probably one of the more underappreciated aspects of Paul’s defense is his intelligence but also he has great hands for strips, for deflections. Great anticipation.”
The Nuggets were without Millsap’s hands and defense for four matchups in December and then in 16-straight games from early January through mid-February. Denver’s defensive numbers initially took a nosedive without its defensive captain in the lineup.
From Dec. 14 through Jan. 28 when Millsap missed 15 of 24 games, the Nuggets gave up on average 112.5 points per 100 possessions, good for the fifth-worst mark in the league during that stretch. That slide came after Denver’s defense yielded on average just 102.5 points per 100 possessions over its first 23 games of the season.
It was a stark reversal from the stout defense the Nuggets fielded over the first trimester of the regular season, but one that wasn’t too surprising. For three years Millsap has been the backbone of Denver’s defense and the Nuggets’ most valuable defender.
This season has been no different. In the 35 games Millsap has appeared in the Nuggets have given up a stingy 101.4 points per 100 possessions when their starting power forward is on the floor. That number balloons to 109.7 when he’s on the bench and no player on Denver’s roster sports a larger individual positive point differential on that end of the floor.
Michael Malone said Millsap’s most valuable defensive attributes are his “intelligence and experience.”
“He’s so smart with his angles,” Malone added.
What about his defensive versatility?
Millsap began the year alongside Nikola Jokic as Denver’s starter at power forward, but since returning from his 16-game absence has spent time at backup center while playing on a minute restriction, guarding the likes of Poeltl and Deandre Ayton in two of the Nuggets’ final matchups before the All-Star break. He fared well in both games and Denver’s bench looked competent on both ends of the floor.
Millsap will soon re-join the Nuggets’ starting lineup once his minutes restriction gets lifted. While on the restriction, which based on Millsap’s last three outings was around 20 minutes (Millsap logged 18, 19 and 20 minutes against the Suns, Spurs and Lakers respectively), Malone prefers to play him one continuous stretch from the end of the first and third through the beginning of the second and fourth quarters to keep his rhythm.
But here’s the question Malone has to answer once Millsap moves back into the starting lineup: will Denver continue to play four big men and primarily pair Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee together off the bench, or try to mix and match with Millsap alongside one of those backups.
Grant and Plumlee have played 525 minutes together this season and the Nuggets have been outscored by 75 points with that duo on the floor. Denver is scoring just 102.9 points per 100 possessions with Grant and Plumlee on the court and are giving up on average a poor 109.3 points per 100 possessions on defense. It’s been a struggle on both ends all year.
You can chalk some of the Nuggets poor bench play up to how green Grant was at the beginning of the season to Denver’s attack and scheme on both ends. He looks much more accustomed to the Nuggets’ ways now, albeit while playing alongside Jokic something that will benefit anyone’s numbers and outlook. How the Nuggets’ bench performs if Denver does rely on the Grant-Plumlee frontcourt combo for significant minutes is a storyline to track throughout the remainder of the regular season.
As is Millsap’s two-way impact. Millsap boosts the Nuggets’ rebounding prowess and hauled in 20.2% of all available rebounds over his last two games (for comparison Jokic leads Denver in Rebound Percentage this season and has hauled in 15.8% of available rebounds when on the floor.)
Millsap is the Nuggets’ defensive captain too.
Monte Morris said Millsap’s best defensive quality is his “communication.”
Millsap has put together an impressive offensive season as well. He’s averaging 12.1 points per game and is registering a career-high 59.4 True Shooting Percentage so far this year, helped in part by the career-high 44% Millsap is shooting from 3-point range. Millsap has also converted on 37 of his 83 (44.6%) “open” and “wide open” 3-pointers, according to NBA.com, when the closest defender is at least four feet away.
Millsap’s peaks and valleys are never too drastic — except for his 16-point second-half against San Antonio — and his two-way stability will be valuable come playoff time. He feels rested after sitting for most of January and has nothing “lingering” from the quad and knee ailments he suffered through earlier this season.
That’s great news for the Nuggets ahead of a stretch run which will test Denver’s fortitude on both ends of the floor.